FFord Motor CompanyConsumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.37 · now $13.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, F has typically landed between $11.18 and $16.05 — a range of −16.3% to +20.1% from the issuance price $13.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where F has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.18worst · -16.3%$16.05best · +20.1%
  • now $13.37 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.5 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.62–$14.37
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.18–$16.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-24−60.3%−60.4%+3.6%
2008-09-25−59.6%−60.0%+4.4%
2008-09-30−58.6%−61.7%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-19+134.0%+0.0%+168.8%
2009-03-31+127.3%+0.0%+127.3%
2009-03-06+121.5%+0.0%+121.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$56.2B
market cap
$-1.55
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$187.3B
'20'25
Net income−$8.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$12.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-4.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-22.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr4.66
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $13.37$-18.96$19.66
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-16.30
  • Analyst target · range $14.50–$17.00$16.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$13.37

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.6%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.2%
n=19
Apr
58%
+9.4%
n=19
May
47%
+2.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
−2.7%
n=19
Jul
47%
+3.1%
n=19
Aug
32%
−2.6%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.4%
n=18
Nov
78%
+6.9%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$112026-06-23: 1 insider purchase, $149K — THORNTON JOHN L2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $99K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $1.9M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $149K↑ buys↓ salesdirector THORNTON JOHN L — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23THORNTON JOHN LdirectorPurchase10,600 @ $14.05$149K+2.2% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open486,685Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

299 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Kennard William EdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01FORD WILLIAM CLAY JRdirectorAward / grant555,156Form 4
2026-09-01WEINBERG JOHN SdirectorAward / grant89183,180Form 4
2026-09-01WEINBERG JOHN SdirectorAward / grant89183,180Form 4
2026-09-01Kennard William EdirectorAward / grant2,662248,281Form 4
2026-09-01Radakovich Lynn VojvodichdirectorAward / grant2,173202,676Form 4
2026-09-01THORNTON JOHN LdirectorAward / grant4,792448,521Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant2,856266,374Form 4
2026-09-01Kennard William EdirectorAward / grant2,662248,281Form 4
2026-09-01Cisneros AdrianadirectorAward / grant67262,756Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant2,317216,865Form 4
2026-09-01MOONEY BETH EdirectorAward / grant1,468136,862Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant2,317216,865Form 4
2026-09-01Veihmeyer John BdirectorAward / grant77071,795Form 4
2026-09-01Cisneros AdrianadirectorAward / grant67262,756Form 4
2026-09-01Huntsman Jon M JrdirectorAward / grant44641,577Form 4
2026-09-01WEINBERG JOHN SdirectorAward / grant89183,180Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01Radakovich Lynn VojvodichdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01Veihmeyer John BdirectorAward / grant77071,795Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant2,856266,374Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01Kennard William EdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01Radakovich Lynn VojvodichdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01Veihmeyer John BdirectorAward / grant97791,104Form 4
2026-09-01MOONEY BETH EdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01WEINBERG JOHN SdirectorAward / grant70365,550Form 4
2026-09-01Radakovich Lynn VojvodichdirectorAward / grant2,173202,676Form 4
2026-09-01Kennard William EdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01Helman William WdirectorAward / grant61957,887Form 4
2026-09-01CASIANO KIMBERLY AdirectorAward / grant2,317216,865Form 4
2026-09-01THORNTON JOHN LdirectorAward / grant4,792448,521Form 4
2026-09-01Huntsman Jon M JrdirectorAward / grant44641,577Form 4
2026-09-01FORD WILLIAM CLAY JRdirectorAward / grant555,156Form 4
2026-09-01WEINBERG JOHN SdirectorAward / grant70365,550Form 4
2026-09-01Veihmeyer John BdirectorAward / grant77071,795Form 4
2026-09-01Huntsman Jon M JrdirectorAward / grant60956,774Form 4
2026-09-01THORNTON JOHN LdirectorAward / grant4,792448,521Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-05-192026-04-09$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Austin ScottHousesale2025-08-132025-03-04$1–15K
Austin ScottHousesale2025-08-132024-10-02$1–15K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-07$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-08$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-09$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-10$50–100K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-06-132025-04-15$100–250K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.