EXRExtra Space Storage Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Industrialas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $136.43 · now $136.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EXR has typically landed between $119.26 and $152.98 — a range of −12.6% to +12.1% from the issuance price $136.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($136.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EXR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $136.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$119.26worst · -12.6%$152.98best · +12.1%
  • now $136.43 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $136.9 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $130.04–$143.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $119.26–$152.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−43.5%−43.5%+0.0%
2008-10-22−39.4%−39.4%+14.5%
2008-09-25−36.0%−36.0%+2.8%
3 best
2008-11-20+63.6%+0.0%+72.8%
2008-11-19+52.5%−11.7%+52.5%
2008-11-21+50.6%+0.0%+65.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$31.2B
market cap
$4.40
EPS (TTM)
33.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$3.4B
'20'25
Net income$974M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr28.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr7.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.11
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $136.43$133.53$175.54
  • DCF (intrinsic)$172.64
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$144.64
  • Analyst target · range $148.00–$172.00$156.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$136.43

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Mar
63%
+3.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.3%
n=19
May
74%
+1.8%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.1%
n=19
Aug
58%
+2.4%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.0%
n=18
Nov
56%
+1.0%
n=18
Dec
72%
+4.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$153$1222026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $495K — McNeal Gwyn Goodson2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Margolis Joseph D2025-10-01: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Margolis Joseph D2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $495K↑ buys↓ salesofficer McNeal Gwyn Goodson — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Margolis Joseph D — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Margolis Joseph D — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-11McNeal Gwyn GoodsonofficerSale3,300 @ $150.00$495K−8.1% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open37,374Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13Margolis Joseph DdirectorSale7,500 @ $142.08$1.1M−10.1% of holding−3.9%−15.8%66,495Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorSale7,500 @ $141.41$1.1M−27.5% of holding−6.2%−1.6%19,760Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorSale7,500 @ $150.35$1.1M−21.6% of holding−13.1%−22.4%27,260Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorSale7,500 @ $147.45$1.1M−44.9% of holding+0.7%−22.3%9,190Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-13Bonner Joseph JdirectorSale672 @ $149.10$100K−12.9% of holding−3.4%−15.8%4,557Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28Springer William NofficerSale1,220 @ $152.66$186K−100.0% of holding+4.0%−13.0%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Dickens Zachary TofficerSale80 @ $152.66$12K−100.0% of holding+4.0%−13.0%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-02Margolis Joseph DdirectorSale7,500 @ $148.01$1.1M−31.0% of holding−0.1%−3.1%16,690Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

123 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Margolis Joseph DdirectorGift13,50383,757Form 4
2026-08-04Margolis Joseph DdirectorGift13,50379,998Form 4
2026-07-01Norman Jeffrey JayofficerWithheld for tax73515,818Form 4
2026-07-01Dickens Zachary TofficerWithheld for tax16433,712Form 4
2026-07-01Springer William NofficerWithheld for tax13827,794Form 4
2026-05-14Vander Ploeg JuliadirectorAward / grant1,4077,597Form 4
2026-05-14PITTMAN RAYMOND JdirectorAward / grant1,4071,407Form 4
2026-05-14Barberio Mark GdirectorAward / grant1,40715,487Form 4
2026-05-14Harnett SuedirectorAward / grant1,4077,016Form 4
2026-05-14Saffire JosephdirectorAward / grant1,40746,527Form 4
2026-05-14Woolley Kenneth M.directorAward / grant1,407407,088Form 4
2026-05-14Maggelet Crystal CalldirectorAward / grant1,4071,407Form 4
2026-05-14CRITTENDEN GARY LdirectorAward / grant1,4078,514Form 4
2026-04-01Norman Jeffrey JayofficerWithheld for tax37516,553Form 4
2026-04-01KUNDE GRACEofficerWithheld for tax27614,646Form 4
2026-03-06Margolis Joseph DdirectorGift14,45273,995Form 4
2026-03-06Margolis Joseph DdirectorGift14,45240,840Form 4
2026-03-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorAward / grant17,38161,189Form 4
2026-03-01Springer William NofficerAward / grant7,48229,469Form 4
2026-03-01Sondhi SamratofficerAward / grant7,151111,030Form 4
2026-03-01Dickens Zachary TofficerAward / grant7,01835,605Form 4
2026-03-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorAward / grant6,89843,808Form 4
2026-03-01Herrington Matthew TofficerAward / grant6,29025,206Form 4
2026-03-01McNeal Gwyn GoodsonofficerAward / grant3,60941,904Form 4
2026-03-01Norman Jeffrey JayofficerAward / grant3,44316,928Form 4
2026-03-01Springer William NofficerAward / grant2,26221,987Form 4
2026-03-01Sondhi SamratofficerAward / grant1,929103,879Form 4
2026-03-01Dickens Zachary TofficerAward / grant1,92028,587Form 4
2026-03-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorWithheld for tax1,88655,292Form 4
2026-03-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorWithheld for tax1,68257,178Form 4
2026-03-01Herrington Matthew TofficerAward / grant1,46318,916Form 4
2026-03-01KUNDE GRACEofficerAward / grant1,29215,039Form 4
2026-03-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorWithheld for tax1,26458,860Form 4
2026-03-01McNeal Gwyn GoodsonofficerAward / grant1,23938,295Form 4
2026-03-01Margolis Joseph DdirectorWithheld for tax1,06560,124Form 4
2026-03-01Sondhi SamratofficerWithheld for tax776109,244Form 4
2026-03-01Dickens Zachary TofficerWithheld for tax76133,876Form 4
2026-03-01Herrington Matthew TofficerWithheld for tax68223,720Form 4
2026-03-01Springer William NofficerWithheld for tax68227,932Form 4
2026-03-01Sondhi SamratofficerWithheld for tax451110,020Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-03-122026-02-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-02-07$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.