EXPE · TickerCove

EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Travel Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $286.97 · now $286.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EXPE has typically landed between $233.29 and $345.37 — a range of −18.7% to +20.4% from the issuance price $286.97.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($286.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$286.97 · 66% of range

$187.7 low$338.64 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.1%

typical move · IQR 17.3%

−18.7%worst (p90)+20.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

7 buys · 7 sells · 2 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where EXPE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $286.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $286.97 (+0.0%)
typical $292.93 (+2.1%)
middle 50% $268.06–$317.8
90% range $233.29–$345.37

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−62.2%	−62.2%	+0.6%
2020-02-19	−60.1%	−62.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−59.7%	−62.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2011-11-23	+147.2%	+0.0%	+147.2%
2011-11-25	+145.0%	+0.0%	+145.0%
2011-12-19	+139.6%	+0.0%	+141.8%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$29.8B

market cap

$11.36

EPS (TTM)

22.9

P/E (TTM)

2026-08-05

next earnings

Revenue$14.7B

'20'25

Net income$1.3B

'20'25

Free cash flow$3.1B

'20'25

Net margin · by yr8.8%

'20'25

ROE · by yr100.8%

'20'25

Debt / equity · by yr5.19

'20'25

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$224.49
Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$270.63
Analyst target · range $244.00–$330.00$260.00
Current price · last close 2026-09-16$286.97

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+0.8%

n=18

Feb

47%

+0.1%

n=19

Mar

53%

−0.9%

n=19

Apr

63%

+6.8%

n=19

May

63%

+1.3%

n=19

Jun

63%

−0.2%

n=19

Jul

79%

+8.0%

n=19

Aug

37%

+0.5%

n=19

Sep

53%

+1.2%

n=19

Oct

61%

−0.6%

n=18

Nov

56%

+5.2%

n=18

Dec

61%

+7.6%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Sale	1,004 @ $335.00	$336K	−1.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	104,331	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	Soliday Lance A	officer	Sale	2,810 @ $323.65	$909K	−19.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,006	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $330.50	$661K	−1.9% of holding	−7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	105,335	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13	Jacobson Craig A	director	Sale	3,133 @ $328.52	$1.0M	−9.5% of holding	−10.1%	not yet — horizon still open	29,833	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Sale	3,003 @ $315.00	$946K	−2.8% of holding	−12.1%	not yet — horizon still open	103,829	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Sale	4,702 @ $233.00	$1.1M	−4.3% of holding	+12.4%	not yet — horizon still open	105,448	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-26	Soliday Lance A	officer	Sale	940 @ $221.86	$209K	−6.3% of holding	+14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	14,083	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Sale	8,225 @ $220.82	$1.8M	−7.4% of holding	+5.8%	+27.3%	102,480	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01	Banerjee Madhumita Moina	director	Sale	1,000 @ $258.00	$258K	−25.5% of holding	+8.9%	−24.1%	2,916	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	Soliday Lance A	officer	Sale	856 @ $256.93	$220K	−7.3% of holding	+8.8%	−24.9%	10,806	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21	Soliday Lance A	officer	Sale	849 @ $248.08	$211K	−6.8% of holding	+11.8%	−22.8%	11,662	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-13	Jacobson Craig A	director	Sale	3,000 @ $271.55	$815K	−8.9% of holding	+4.9%	−29.8%	30,858	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20	Soliday Lance A	officer	Sale	852 @ $205.88	$175K	−6.6% of holding	+4.0%	−9.4%	12,036	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-19	Jacobson Craig A	director	Sale	3,000 @ $207.78	$623K	−8.1% of holding	+3.4%	−11.2%	33,858	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Withheld for tax	6,660	155,358	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Withheld for tax	4,528	162,052	Form 4
2026-08-15	Andersen Derek	officer	Withheld for tax	3,624	8,578	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,334	107,335	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Withheld for tax	481	14,816	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Option exercise	1,546	9,272	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Option exercise	1,553	15,525	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Option exercise	366	14,449	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Option exercise	329	14,778	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Option exercise	267	15,045	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Option exercise	252	15,297	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Option exercise	329	660	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Option exercise	252	1,515	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Option exercise	366	2,194	Form 4
2026-08-15	Soliday Lance A	officer	Option exercise	267	2,675	Form 4
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Option exercise	5,604	151,067	Form 4
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Option exercise	5,156	156,223	Form 4
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Option exercise	4,097	160,320	Form 4
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Option exercise	1,698	162,018	Form 4
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Option exercise	1,698	3,395	Form 4
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Option exercise	5,156	30,938	Form 4
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Option exercise	5,604	33,621	Form 4
2026-08-15	Gorin Ariane	director	Option exercise	4,097	40,970	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Option exercise	1,473	8,838	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Option exercise	1,170	11,705	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Option exercise	1,553	105,382	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Option exercise	1,546	106,928	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Option exercise	1,422	108,350	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Option exercise	1,319	109,669	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Option exercise	1,319	2,637	Form 4
2026-08-15	Dzielak Robert J	officer	Option exercise	1,422	8,532	Form 4
2026-08-15	Andersen Derek	officer	Option exercise	7,223	12,202	Form 4
2026-08-15	Andersen Derek	officer	Option exercise	7,223	55,721	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Option exercise	3,940	162,336	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Option exercise	1,601	163,937	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Option exercise	1,473	165,410	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Option exercise	1,170	166,580	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Option exercise	3,940	7,881	Form 4
2026-08-15	Diller Barry	director	Option exercise	1,601	9,605	Form 4
2026-08-14	KHOSROWSHAHI DARA	director	Gift	15,000	120,366	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Alan Armstrong	Senate	sale	2026-07-21	2026-03-27	$15–50K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-06-09	2026-05-27	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-06-09	2026-05-15	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-05-11	2026-04-13	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-03-09	2026-02-24	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-03-09	2026-02-05	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2025-09-09	2025-08-26	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2025-09-09	2025-08-26	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-08-07	2025-07-01	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-08-07	2025-07-01	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-04-10	2025-03-12	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2024-12-05	2024-11-15	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2024-09-06	2024-08-02	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2024-06-05	2024-05-29	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i