EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc.Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logisticsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $189.04 · now $189.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EXPD has typically landed between $170.34 and $209.50 — a range of −9.9% to +10.8% from the issuance price $189.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($189.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EXPD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $189.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$170.34worst · -9.9%$209.5best · +10.8%
  • now $189.04 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $191.42 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $183.7–$199.14
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $170.34–$209.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−27.2%−27.2%+0.0%
2020-02-21−25.9%−27.1%+0.0%
2008-09-26−24.1%−25.9%+0.0%
3 best
2010-07-06+30.1%+0.0%+30.1%
2009-03-11+28.9%+0.0%+28.9%
2010-07-07+27.7%+0.0%+27.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$22.9B
market cap
$6.18
EPS (TTM)
28.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$11.1B
'20'25
Net income$814M
'20'25
Free cash flow$953M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr34.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.24
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $189.04$65.61$200.29
  • DCF (intrinsic)$74.90
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$189.44
  • Analyst target · range $145.00–$191.00$156.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$189.04

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−1.7%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.5%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.5%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.7%
n=19
May
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Jun
58%
−0.0%
n=19
Jul
79%
+2.1%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Oct
44%
+0.2%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$194$1122026-02-27: 2 insider sales, $2.4M — Bell Blake R, Wall Daniel R2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $730K — Emmert Mark A2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $201K — Dickerman Jeffrey F2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $301K — Carlile Robert Paul2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $497K — Emmert Mark A2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $2.8M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $301K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $932K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.4M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bell Blake R — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Wall Daniel R — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Emmert Mark A — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Dickerman Jeffrey F — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carlile Robert Paul — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Emmert Mark A — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-27Bell Blake RofficerSale10,351 @ $144.08$1.5M−15.3% of holding+5.2%+19.6%57,275Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27Wall Daniel RofficerSale6,100 @ $145.07$885K−9.2% of holding+5.2%+19.6%60,532Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-07Emmert Mark AdirectorSale5,400 @ $135.25$730K−45.5% of holding+6.2%+2.3%6,468Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-05Dickerman Jeffrey FofficerSale1,500 @ $134.17$201K−19.6% of holding+9.2%+4.7%6,151Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05Carlile Robert PauldirectorSale2,500 @ $120.51$301K−21.7% of holding−1.8%+15.4%9,045Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19Emmert Mark AdirectorSale4,100 @ $121.26$497K−25.7% of holding−1.3%+17.2%11,868Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Dickerman Jeffrey FofficerSale1,470 @ $118.05$174K−16.1% of holding+0.5%+30.7%7,651Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-06Bell Blake RofficerSale18,000 @ $117.89$2.1M−23.9% of holding−0.4%+31.0%57,275Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12Wall Daniel RofficerSale9,996 @ $115.91$1.2M−14.2% of holding−3.9%+4.3%60,334Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

291 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Gulyas Diane H.directorGift1,40023,141Form 4
2026-06-15Martinez Roberto AofficerAward / grant1964Form 4
2026-06-15Wall Daniel RofficerAward / grant100100Form 4
2026-06-15Wall Daniel RofficerAward / grant94314Form 4
2026-06-15Wall Daniel RofficerAward / grant950Form 4
2026-06-15Schoonover Gabe OofficerAward / grant77Form 4
2026-06-15Schoonover Gabe OofficerAward / grant15Form 4
2026-06-15Schoonover Gabe OofficerAward / grant14Form 4
2026-06-15Martinez Roberto AofficerAward / grant2828Form 4
2026-06-15Bell Blake RofficerAward / grant1584Form 4
2026-06-15Martinez Roberto AofficerAward / grant527Form 4
2026-06-15Bell Blake RofficerAward / grant31105Form 4
2026-06-15Bell Blake RofficerAward / grant2323Form 4
2026-06-15Blacker Kelly KofficerAward / grant1584Form 4
2026-06-15Blacker Kelly KofficerAward / grant31105Form 4
2026-06-15Blacker Kelly KofficerAward / grant3232Form 4
2026-06-15Dickerman Jeffrey FofficerAward / grant422Form 4
2026-06-15Hawkins Courtney AofficerAward / grant1010Form 4
2026-06-15Dickerman Jeffrey FofficerAward / grant1033Form 4
2026-06-15Hawkins Courtney AofficerAward / grant828Form 4
2026-06-15Dickerman Jeffrey FofficerAward / grant1010Form 4
2026-06-15Hackett David AofficerAward / grant14Form 4
2026-06-15Hackett David AofficerAward / grant26Form 4
2026-06-15Hackett David AofficerAward / grant2424Form 4
2026-05-07Blacker Kelly KofficerWithheld for tax1,08518,208Form 4
2026-05-07Bell Blake RofficerWithheld for tax1,08562,993Form 4
2026-05-07Wall Daniel RofficerWithheld for tax64468,692Form 4
2026-05-07Martinez Roberto AofficerWithheld for tax3694,062Form 4
2026-05-07Dickerman Jeffrey FofficerWithheld for tax30410,367Form 4
2026-05-07Schoonover Gabe OofficerWithheld for tax37327Form 4
2026-05-07Hackett David AofficerWithheld for tax37548Form 4
2026-05-07Wall Daniel RofficerOption exercise1,69769,295Form 4
2026-05-07Blacker Kelly KofficerOption exercise2,86319,224Form 4
2026-05-07Blacker Kelly KofficerOption exercise6919,293Form 4
2026-05-07Blacker Kelly KofficerOption exercise6970Form 4
2026-05-07Bell Blake RofficerOption exercise2,86364,009Form 4
2026-05-07Bell Blake RofficerOption exercise6964,078Form 4
2026-05-07Bell Blake RofficerOption exercise2,8632,863Form 4
2026-05-07Bell Blake RofficerOption exercise6970Form 4
2026-05-07Blacker Kelly KofficerOption exercise2,8632,863Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-11-082024-10-14$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousepurchase2024-08-162024-07-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-11-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-11-082023-10-10$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-10-102023-09-08$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousepurchase2022-08-102022-07-27$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.