EXPEagle Materials Inc.Basic Materials · Construction Materialsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $179.44 · now $179.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EXP has typically landed between $154.17 and $205.75 — a range of −14.1% to +14.7% from the issuance price $179.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($179.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EXP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $179.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$154.17worst · -14.1%$205.75best · +14.7%
  • now $179.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $182.23 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $170.48–$193.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $154.17–$205.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−52.2%−52.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−49.3%−49.3%+1.5%
2008-09-10−45.4%−45.4%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+60.1%+0.0%+60.1%
2009-03-05+53.6%−0.4%+53.6%
2008-10-28+46.5%+0.0%+46.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+3.0%
n=20
Feb
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.3%
n=20
Apr
60%
+2.4%
n=20
May
55%
+1.3%
n=20
Jun
40%
−2.0%
n=20
Jul
45%
+1.0%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.7%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.6%
n=20
Nov
85%
+7.2%
n=20
Dec
45%
−1.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$241$1732026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $627K — Thompson Tony2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $119K — Carter Margot Lebenberg2026-07-31: 3 insider sales, $949K — Carter Margot Lebenberg …2025-11-05: 1 insider purchase, $208K — Rush David E2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $466K — Devlin William R2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $466K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $208K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $949K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $746K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Thompson Tony — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Carter Margot Lebenberg — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed same daydirector Carter Margot Lebenberg — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Carter Margot Lebenberg — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Carter Margot Lebenberg — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Rush David E — Purchase on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Devlin William R — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24Thompson TonyofficerSale3,074 @ $203.96$627K−23.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open10,142Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Carter Margot LebenbergdirectorSale561 @ $212.35$119K−7.7% of holding−11.4%not yet — horizon still open6,757Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-31Carter Margot LebenbergdirectorSale2,517 @ $203.57$512K−21.9% of holding−7.9%not yet — horizon still open8,977Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Carter Margot LebenbergdirectorSale1,659 @ $204.56$339K−18.5% of holding−7.9%not yet — horizon still open7,318Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Carter Margot LebenbergdirectorSale478 @ $204.00$98K−4.0% of holding−7.9%not yet — horizon still open11,494Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-05Rush David EdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $208.08$208K+31.5% of holding+6.0%−7.7%4,173Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-19Devlin William RofficerSale2,000 @ $232.76$466K−10.4% of holding−2.1%−6.9%17,151Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-22Rush David EdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $213.66$214K+100.0% of holding−7.9%−17.5%2,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10NICOLAIS MICHAEL RdirectorPurchase155 @ $257.50$40K+4.4% of holding−10.5%−15.4%3,655Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10NICOLAIS MICHAEL RdirectorPurchase155 @ $257.21$40K+10.0% of holding−10.5%−15.4%1,705Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

252 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05Gregorio MaurodirectorGift1,1731,273Form 4
2026-07-30NICOLAIS MICHAEL RdirectorAward / grant1,54954,411Form 4
2026-07-30NICOLAIS MICHAEL RdirectorAward / grant1,3411,341Form 4
2026-07-30RICCIARDELLO MARY PdirectorAward / grant95510,932Form 4
2026-07-30RICCIARDELLO MARY PdirectorAward / grant827827Form 4
2026-07-30Rush David EdirectorAward / grant1,2735,446Form 4
2026-07-30BECKWITT RICHARDdirectorAward / grant1,40026,801Form 4
2026-07-30Carter Margot LebenbergdirectorAward / grant1,40011,972Form 4
2026-07-30Damiris George JohndirectorAward / grant1,27310,389Form 4
2026-07-30ELLEN MARTIN MdirectorAward / grant1,40011,511Form 4
2026-07-30Gregorio MaurodirectorAward / grant1,2732,446Form 4
2026-07-23Guzman SamofficerOption exercise416416Form 4
2026-07-23Guzman SamofficerWithheld for tax102314Form 4
2026-07-23Guzman SamofficerOption exercise416832Form 4
2026-07-20Kesler Dale CraigofficerAward / grant21,760Form 4
2026-07-20Cribbs EricofficerAward / grant1458Form 4
2026-07-20Cribbs EricofficerAward / grant11,176Form 4
2026-07-20Cribbs EricofficerAward / grant22,011Form 4
2026-07-20Guzman SamofficerAward / grant1692Form 4
2026-07-20Guzman SamofficerAward / grant21,248Form 4
2026-07-20Haack MichaeldirectorAward / grant53,990Form 4
2026-07-20Haack MichaeldirectorAward / grant97,060Form 4
2026-07-20Haack MichaeldirectorAward / grant97,542Form 4
2026-07-20Haddock AlexofficerAward / grant0318Form 4
2026-07-20Haddock AlexofficerAward / grant1706Form 4
2026-07-20Haddock AlexofficerAward / grant11,131Form 4
2026-07-20Kesler Dale CraigofficerAward / grant1953Form 4
2026-07-20Kesler Dale CraigofficerAward / grant21,647Form 4
2026-07-20Newby MattofficerAward / grant1599Form 4
2026-07-20Newby MattofficerAward / grant11,118Form 4
2026-07-20Newby MattofficerAward / grant11,194Form 4
2026-07-20NICOLAIS MICHAEL RdirectorAward / grant54,001Form 4
2026-07-20Thompson TonyofficerAward / grant0318Form 4
2026-07-20Thompson TonyofficerAward / grant1707Form 4
2026-07-20Thompson TonyofficerAward / grant21,258Form 4
2026-07-10BECKWITT RICHARDdirectorOption exercise2,07025,401Form 4
2026-07-10BECKWITT RICHARDdirectorOption exercise2,0700Form 4
2026-06-17NICOLAIS MICHAEL RdirectorOption exercise4,13954,439Form 4
2026-06-17NICOLAIS MICHAEL RdirectorWithheld for tax1,57752,862Form 4
2026-06-17NICOLAIS MICHAEL RdirectorOption exercise4,1390Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.