Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.30 · now $2.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EXFY has typically landed between $1.62 and $3.20 — a range of −29.5% to +39.3% from the issuance price $2.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,195 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EXFY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.13 (-7.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.85–$2.41
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.62–$3.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,195 windows spanning 2021-11-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-10-10 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-31 | −45.3% | −47.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-13 | −44.7% | −48.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-24 | +100.0% | +0.0% | +100.0% |
| 2024-10-23 | +95.3% | +0.0% | +95.3% |
| 2024-11-06 | +91.7% | +0.0% | +91.7% |
1,195 overlapping windows · 2021-11-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−9.4%
n=5
Feb
40%
−9.3%
n=5
Mar
0%
−11.8%
n=5
Apr
20%
−3.9%
n=5
May
40%
+3.1%
n=5
Jun
60%
+13.7%
n=5
Jul
80%
+3.5%
n=5
Aug
40%
+0.9%
n=5
Sep
0%
−14.4%
n=5
Oct
0%
−11.3%
n=4
Nov
25%
+7.0%
n=4
Dec
40%
−0.8%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Sale | 10,700 @ $1.28 | $14K | −4.4% of holding | +38.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 234,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.15 | $35K | −2.4% of holding | +51.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,228,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $1.13 | $11K | −3.9% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 244,780 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.08 | $32K | −2.3% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,258,480 | Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Sale | 30,728 @ $1.01 | $31K | −10.8% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 254,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $0.85 | $26K | −2.4% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,198,480 | Form 4 · filed 71 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Sale | 12,451 @ $0.81 | $10K | −3.6% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 336,359 | Form 4 · filed 73 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 10,114 @ $0.84 | $8K | −4.4% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 221,144 | Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $0.84 | $2K | −1.1% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 238,671 | Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Sale | 1,786 @ $0.84 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 549,634 | Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Sale | 1,699 @ $0.84 | $1K | −0.5% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 348,810 | Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 1,510 @ $0.84 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 454,545 | Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Sale | 6,770 @ $0.76 | $5K | −1.2% of holding | +17.3% | +194.8% | 551,420 | Form 4 · filed 86 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Sale | 6,230 @ $0.76 | $5K | −1.9% of holding | +17.3% | +194.8% | 316,876 | Form 4 · filed 86 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 6,158 @ $0.76 | $5K | −1.3% of holding | +17.3% | +194.8% | 456,055 | Form 4 · filed 86 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Sale | 3,333 @ $0.76 | $3K | −1.4% of holding | +17.3% | +194.8% | 241,371 | Form 4 · filed 86 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 2,692 @ $0.76 | $2K | −1.2% of holding | +17.3% | +194.8% | 231,258 | Form 4 · filed 86 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | McLaughlin Steven J. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 500,000 @ $0.84 | $420K | +4.3% of holding | −6.1% | +156.6% | 12,203,393 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | McLaughlin Steven J. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 455,911 @ $0.95 | $433K | +4.1% of holding | −15.9% | +136.0% | 11,703,393 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | McLaughlin Steven J. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 480,389 @ $0.96 | $462K | +4.5% of holding | −12.1% | +132.2% | 11,247,482 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | McLaughlin Steven J. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 327,144 @ $1.02 | $335K | +3.1% of holding | −7.6% | +128.9% | 10,767,093 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | McLaughlin Steven J. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 500,000 @ $0.97 | $485K | +5.0% of holding | −8.8% | +138.2% | 10,439,949 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $0.90 | $27K | −2.3% of holding | −1.9% | +157.4% | 1,288,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.45 | $44K | −2.2% of holding | −28.2% | +21.6% | 1,318,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.50 | $45K | −2.2% of holding | −5.1% | +7.9% | 1,348,480 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Sale | 6,504 @ $1.50 | $10K | −2.0% of holding | −6.0% | +12.4% | 319,100 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 14,463 @ $1.52 | $22K | −6.4% of holding | −4.1% | +4.4% | 212,567 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Sale | 3,923 @ $1.52 | $6K | −1.9% of holding | −4.1% | +4.4% | 203,936 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Sale | 3,821 @ $1.52 | $6K | −0.8% of holding | −4.1% | +4.4% | 486,962 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 2,825 @ $1.52 | $4K | −0.8% of holding | −4.1% | +4.4% | 366,049 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Sale | 2,468 @ $1.52 | $4K | −0.8% of holding | −4.1% | +4.4% | 325,604 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Sale | 5,853 @ $1.55 | $9K | −1.2% of holding | −11.0% | −5.3% | 486,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 4,837 @ $1.55 | $7K | −1.3% of holding | −11.0% | −5.3% | 366,049 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Sale | 2,632 @ $1.55 | $4K | −1.3% of holding | −11.0% | −5.3% | 203,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 2,544 @ $1.55 | $4K | −1.2% of holding | −11.0% | −5.3% | 212,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Muralidharan Anuradha | director | Sale | 523 @ $1.55 | $811 | −0.7% of holding | −11.0% | −5.3% | 77,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.52 | $46K | −2.1% of holding | +0.1% | −34.2% | 1,378,480 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Christen Timothy L | director | Purchase | 40,000 @ $1.43 | $57K | +16.0% of holding | +16.6% | −30.4% | 289,754 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.60 | $48K | −2.1% of holding | +0.5% | −39.7% | 1,408,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $1.60 | $14K | −2.8% of holding | +0.5% | −39.7% | 317,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.79 | $54K | −2.0% of holding | −11.4% | −47.5% | 1,438,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Muralidharan Anuradha | director | Sale | 14,961 @ $1.94 | $29K | −20.4% of holding | −16.0% | −52.5% | 58,475 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 10,262 @ $1.95 | $20K | −4.7% of holding | −18.7% | −56.8% | 208,399 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Sale | 2,732 @ $1.95 | $5K | −1.4% of holding | −18.7% | −56.8% | 185,937 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Muralidharan Anuradha | director | Sale | 2,486 @ $1.95 | $5K | −3.3% of holding | −18.7% | −56.8% | 73,436 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Sale | 1,812 @ $1.95 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | −18.7% | −56.8% | 426,573 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 1,532 @ $1.95 | $3K | −0.5% of holding | −18.7% | −56.8% | 326,857 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Sale | 4,921 @ $1.90 | $9K | −1.1% of holding | −12.5% | −60.9% | 428,385 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 4,009 @ $1.90 | $8K | −1.2% of holding | −12.5% | −60.9% | 328,389 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 2,396 @ $1.90 | $5K | −1.1% of holding | −12.5% | −60.9% | 218,661 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Sale | 2,204 @ $1.90 | $4K | −1.2% of holding | −12.5% | −60.9% | 188,669 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Muralidharan Anuradha | director | Sale | 409 @ $1.90 | $777 | −0.5% of holding | −12.5% | −60.9% | 75,922 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.92 | $58K | −2.0% of holding | −13.0% | −54.5% | 1,468,480 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Muralidharan Anuradha | director | Sale | 25,245 @ $1.94 | $49K | −29.3% of holding | −1.1% | −57.2% | 61,041 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Muralidharan Anuradha | director | Sale | 1,558 @ $1.72 | $3K | −1.8% of holding | +9.7% | −32.6% | 86,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Sale | 1,387 @ $1.72 | $2K | −0.4% of holding | +9.7% | −32.6% | 368,401 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Sale | 1,203 @ $1.72 | $2K | −0.7% of holding | +9.7% | −32.6% | 174,104 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 1,050 @ $1.72 | $2K | −0.4% of holding | +9.7% | −32.6% | 289,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Barrett David Michael | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $1.94 | $58K | −2.0% of holding | −6.0% | −39.3% | 1,498,480 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Vidal Daniel | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $1.95 | $18K | −3.0% of holding | −6.0% | −39.3% | 286,817 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
188 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Liu Ying | director | Award / grant | 3,731 | 183,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Award / grant | 1,164,596 | 1,164,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Vidal Daniel | director | Award / grant | 1,160,447 | 1,160,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Barrett David Michael | director | Award / grant | 2,094,974 | 2,094,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Award / grant | 1,160,447 | 1,160,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Liu Ying | director | Award / grant | 123,762 | 306,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Christen Timothy L | director | Award / grant | 123,762 | 413,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pao Ellen | director | Award / grant | 123,762 | 292,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Liu Ying | director | Award / grant | 5,376 | 179,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Award / grant | 33,633 | 350,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Vidal Daniel | director | Option exercise | 2,826 | 39,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Option exercise | 2,467 | 34,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Barrett David Michael | director | Option exercise | 14,463 | 202,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Barrett David Michael | director | Option exercise | 14,463 | 260,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Option exercise | 3,922 | 54,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Option exercise | 3,922 | 70,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Option exercise | 3,822 | 53,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Option exercise | 3,822 | 53,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Vidal Daniel | director | Option exercise | 2,826 | 163,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Option exercise | 2,467 | 166,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Option exercise | 2,467 | 323,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Option exercise | 2,467 | 323,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Barrett David Michael | director | Option exercise | 14,463 | 233,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Option exercise | 3,922 | 244,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Option exercise | 3,922 | 244,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Vidal Daniel | director | Option exercise | 2,826 | 462,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Vidal Daniel | director | Option exercise | 2,826 | 462,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Option exercise | 3,822 | 558,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Barrett David Michael | director | Option exercise | 14,463 | 233,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Option exercise | 3,822 | 558,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Vidal Daniel | director | Award / grant | 72,413 | 438,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Award / grant | 59,500 | 304,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Award / grant | 41,348 | 528,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Award / grant | 28,141 | 232,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Alvarez Divo Carlos Eduardo | director | Award / grant | 16,359 | 320,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Barrett David Michael | director | Award / grant | 6,920 | 219,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Schaffer Ryan | director | Award / grant | 8,705 | 240,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mills Jason Fahr | director | Award / grant | 26,058 | 554,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Vidal Daniel | director | Award / grant | 20,925 | 459,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Liu Ying | director | Award / grant | 3,386 | 174,093 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.