EXELExelixis, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.78 · now $56.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EXEL has typically landed between $49.89 and $65.68 — a range of −12.1% to +15.7% from the issuance price $56.78.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EXEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$49.89worst · -12.1%$65.68best · +15.7%
  • now $56.78 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.07 (+2.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.77–$61.37
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $49.89–$65.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2014-08-29−63.0%−63.0%+0.0%
2014-08-26−62.7%−62.7%+0.0%
2014-08-27−62.1%−62.4%+0.5%
3 best
2008-11-21+105.8%+0.0%+120.4%
2015-07-06+88.6%−5.1%+88.6%
2008-11-25+88.2%+0.0%+101.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+3.4%
n=20
Feb
55%
+5.0%
n=20
Mar
50%
−2.3%
n=20
Apr
55%
+4.1%
n=20
May
40%
+0.4%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Jul
55%
+5.1%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.2%
n=20
Oct
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Nov
60%
+5.1%
n=20
Dec
55%
+5.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$59$352026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $527K — Beckerle Mary C2026-06-01: 2 insider sales, $690K — Eckhardt Sue Gail, WYSZOMIERSKI JACK L2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Aftab Dana2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Haley Patrick J.2026-05-18: 2 insider sales, $2.1M — Senner Christopher J., Hefti Brenda2026-05-07: 3 insider sales, $4.1M — POSTE GEORGE, Freire Maria C, Beckerle Mary C2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Aftab Dana2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Aftab Dana2026-02-18: 4 insider sales, $8.1M — WYSZOMIERSKI JACK L, Smith Julie, Hefti Brenda …2026-02-17: 4 insider sales, $6.1M — Haley Patrick J., Smith Julie, Senner Christopher J. …2026-02-13: 4 insider sales, $3.0M — Senner Christopher J., Oliver Bob, Eckhardt Sue Gail …2025-11-25: 1 insider purchase, $1.2M — JOHNSON DAVID EDWARD2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Haley Patrick J.2025-11-20: 3 insider sales, $1.9M — Haley Patrick J. …2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $4.4M — PAPADOPOULOS STELIOS2025-11-11: 3 insider sales, $3.1M — Aftab Dana, Beckerle Mary C …2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $1.2M2025-11: 8 open-market sales, $10.5M2026-02: 14 open-market sales, $20.6M2026-05: 7 open-market sales, $9.9M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $690K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $527K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Beckerle Mary C — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Eckhardt Sue Gail — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WYSZOMIERSKI JACK L — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Aftab Dana — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Haley Patrick J. — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Senner Christopher J. — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hefti Brenda — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector POSTE GEORGE — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Freire Maria C — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beckerle Mary C — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aftab Dana — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Aftab Dana — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector WYSZOMIERSKI JACK L — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith Julie — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Smith Julie — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hefti Brenda — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed same dayofficer Haley Patrick J. — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Smith Julie — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Senner Christopher J. — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Haley Patrick J. — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Senner Christopher J. — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Oliver Bob — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Oliver Bob — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Eckhardt Sue Gail — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector JOHNSON DAVID EDWARD — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Haley Patrick J. — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Haley Patrick J. — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Haley Patrick J. — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Haley Patrick J. — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector PAPADOPOULOS STELIOS — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aftab Dana — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Beckerle Mary C — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Beckerle Mary C — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Beckerle Mary CdirectorSale9,812 @ $53.66$527K−37.9% of holding+11.5%not yet — horizon still open16,079Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01Eckhardt Sue GaildirectorSale9,812 @ $50.14$492K−37.9% of holding+8.8%not yet — horizon still open16,079Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01WYSZOMIERSKI JACK LdirectorSale3,925 @ $50.55$198K−1.4% of holding+8.8%not yet — horizon still open284,384Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Aftab DanaofficerSale43,451 @ $50.35$2.2M−6.8% of holding+8.4%not yet — horizon still open594,741Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20Haley Patrick J.officerSale32,110 @ $49.81$1.6M−8.2% of holding+2.2%not yet — horizon still open357,638Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Senner Christopher J.directorSale34,901 @ $50.00$1.7M−3.5% of holding+4.9%not yet — horizon still open952,317Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Hefti BrendaofficerSale6,625 @ $50.21$333K−5.8% of holding+4.9%not yet — horizon still open106,762Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07POSTE GEORGEdirectorSale60,000 @ $45.71$2.7M−33.6% of holding+10.9%not yet — horizon still open118,832Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Freire Maria CdirectorSale20,634 @ $46.00$949K−17.0% of holding+10.9%not yet — horizon still open100,819Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Beckerle Mary CdirectorSale7,712 @ $48.45$374K−30.6% of holding+10.9%not yet — horizon still open17,524Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Aftab DanaofficerSale47,918 @ $44.50$2.1M−7.2% of holding−1.0%+13.6%616,106Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-19Aftab DanaofficerSale29,873 @ $44.35$1.3M−4.3% of holding−1.6%+9.6%664,024Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18WYSZOMIERSKI JACK LdirectorSale99,574 @ $44.01$4.4M−26.2% of holding−3.4%+9.7%279,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Smith JuliedirectorSale44,087 @ $44.50$2.0M−68.2% of holding−3.4%+9.7%20,590Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Smith JuliedirectorSale20,030 @ $44.30$887K−49.3% of holding−3.4%+9.7%20,590Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Hefti BrendaofficerSale18,669 @ $44.01$822K−16.2% of holding−3.4%+9.7%96,512Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Haley Patrick J.officerSale64,778 @ $43.50$2.8M−14.5% of holding−3.3%+7.5%381,908Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Smith JuliedirectorSale42,422 @ $43.33$1.8M−67.3% of holding−3.3%+7.5%20,590Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Senner Christopher J.directorSale30,617 @ $43.67$1.3M−3.0% of holding−3.3%+7.5%976,092Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Haley Patrick J.officerSale3,036 @ $43.84$133K−0.7% of holding−3.3%+7.5%446,686Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13Senner Christopher J.directorSale34,278 @ $43.00$1.5M−3.2% of holding−3.1%+5.2%1,042,579Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Oliver BobdirectorSale21,162 @ $43.90$929K−50.0% of holding−3.1%+5.2%21,120Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Oliver BobdirectorSale9,088 @ $43.61$396K−17.7% of holding−3.1%+5.2%42,282Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Eckhardt Sue GaildirectorSale3,856 @ $43.79$169K−18.0% of holding−3.1%+5.2%17,524Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-25JOHNSON DAVID EDWARDdirectorPurchase27,532 @ $43.12$1.2M+1.8% of holding+4.6%+4.3%1,553,262Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21Haley Patrick J.officerSale28,043 @ $42.58$1.2M−7.0% of holding+4.9%+3.2%374,029Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-20Haley Patrick J.officerSale23,539 @ $41.93$987K−100.0% of holding+5.3%+3.9%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-20Haley Patrick J.officerSale10,648 @ $41.77$445K−100.0% of holding+5.3%+3.9%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-20Haley Patrick J.officerSale10,000 @ $42.11$421K−2.4% of holding+5.3%+3.9%402,072Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-12PAPADOPOULOS STELIOSdirectorSale100,000 @ $43.55$4.4M−7.8% of holding−6.0%+6.2%1,189,228Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Aftab DanaofficerSale48,383 @ $42.50$2.1M−6.8% of holding−4.6%+8.7%664,778Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Beckerle Mary CdirectorSale18,838 @ $41.90$789K−46.8% of holding−4.6%+8.7%21,380Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Beckerle Mary CdirectorSale5,784 @ $42.03$243K−12.6% of holding−4.6%+8.7%40,218Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03WYSZOMIERSKI JACK LdirectorSale7,535 @ $43.09$325K−2.1% of holding+2.9%−13.2%358,882Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Eckhardt Sue GaildirectorSale18,834 @ $42.74$805K−46.8% of holding−1.7%−14.1%21,384Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Eckhardt Sue GaildirectorSale4 @ $43.67$175−0.0% of holding−1.7%−14.1%21,380Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21Heyman Tomas J.directorSale4,544 @ $44.29$201K−12.3% of holding−4.1%−18.0%32,470Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-20Haley Patrick J.officerSale34,387 @ $44.06$1.5M−7.7% of holding−9.5%−15.8%412,072Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16Senner Christopher J.directorSale100,000 @ $46.00$4.6M−9.4% of holding−9.5%−22.0%967,842Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Peterson Amy C.officerSale72,776 @ $45.47$3.3M−13.5% of holding−9.5%−22.0%465,393Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16POSTE GEORGEdirectorSale20,634 @ $45.99$949K−10.9% of holding−9.5%−22.0%169,020Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15Haley Patrick J.officerSale116,383 @ $48.05$5.6M−20.7% of holding−11.8%−22.9%446,459Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Hessekiel JeffreyofficerSale25,000 @ $46.18$1.2M−3.5% of holding−11.8%−22.9%693,396Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15PAPADOPOULOS STELIOSdirectorSale20,634 @ $44.35$915K−1.6% of holding−11.8%−22.9%1,279,416Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15PAPADOPOULOS STELIOSdirectorSale15,874 @ $44.35$704K−1.2% of holding−11.8%−22.9%1,279,416Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Haley Patrick J.officerSale10,000 @ $46.95$470K−2.2% of holding−11.8%−22.9%446,459Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14Haley Patrick J.officerSale10,000 @ $42.68$427K−2.0% of holding−8.5%−19.3%491,164Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01Aftab DanaofficerSale1,508 @ $39.00$59K−0.2% of holding+4.1%−22.3%693,181Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-03Haley Patrick J.officerSale10,000 @ $38.80$388K−2.8% of holding−2.0%−13.9%341,028Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-28Smith JuliedirectorSale19,294 @ $37.62$726K−64.2% of holding+1.0%−12.5%10,778Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-28WYSZOMIERSKI JACK LdirectorSale8,768 @ $37.80$331K−2.4% of holding+1.0%−12.5%356,605Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-27Smith JuliedirectorSale54,514 @ $38.13$2.1M−83.5% of holding+2.2%−10.9%10,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25Oliver BobdirectorSale18,647 @ $37.25$695K−35.7% of holding+4.3%−5.4%33,514Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Haley Patrick J.officerSale52,636 @ $36.98$1.9M−14.8% of holding+4.9%−6.1%303,310Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Senner Christopher J.directorSale29,314 @ $36.14$1.1M−3.6% of holding+4.9%−6.1%779,607Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Aftab DanaofficerSale26,987 @ $36.75$992K−5.0% of holding+4.9%−6.1%511,908Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-14Freire Maria CdirectorSale44,114 @ $34.94$1.5M−32.6% of holding+11.9%+1.7%91,007Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14POSTE GEORGEdirectorSale15,874 @ $34.74$551K−8.6% of holding+11.9%+1.7%169,020Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Beckerle Mary CdirectorSale8,354 @ $34.87$291K−19.6% of holding+11.9%+1.7%34,262Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Eckhardt Sue GaildirectorSale7,712 @ $35.01$270K−18.4% of holding+11.9%+1.7%34,262Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

156 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-27POSTE GEORGEdirectorAward / grant8,367127,199Form 4
2026-05-27WYSZOMIERSKI JACK LdirectorAward / grant8,367288,309Form 4
2026-05-27Oliver BobdirectorAward / grant8,36729,487Form 4
2026-05-27Freire Maria CdirectorAward / grant8,367109,186Form 4
2026-05-27Eckhardt Sue GaildirectorAward / grant8,36725,891Form 4
2026-05-27Heyman Tomas J.directorAward / grant8,36750,649Form 4
2026-05-27PAPADOPOULOS STELIOSdirectorAward / grant8,3671,197,595Form 4
2026-05-27Smith JuliedirectorAward / grant8,36728,957Form 4
2026-05-27Beckerle Mary CdirectorAward / grant8,36725,891Form 4
2026-05-27JOHNSON DAVID EDWARDdirectorAward / grant19,13319,133Form 4
2026-05-18MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorGift124,0471,362,008Form 4
2026-05-18MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorGift124,0472,004,327Form 4
2026-05-15MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorWithheld for tax128,4971,486,055Form 4
2026-05-15Senner Christopher J.directorWithheld for tax40,892987,218Form 4
2026-05-15Haley Patrick J.officerWithheld for tax33,265389,748Form 4
2026-05-15Aftab DanaofficerWithheld for tax30,578638,192Form 4
2026-05-15Hefti BrendaofficerWithheld for tax6,411113,387Form 4
2026-05-07Freire Maria CdirectorOption exercise20,634121,453Form 4
2026-05-07Beckerle Mary CdirectorOption exercise3,85625,236Form 4
2026-05-07Freire Maria CdirectorOption exercise20,6340Form 4
2026-05-07Beckerle Mary CdirectorOption exercise3,85612,854Form 4
2026-05-06MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorGift109,6761,880,280Form 4
2026-02-26MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorAward / grant160,4371,614,552Form 4
2026-02-26Hefti BrendaofficerAward / grant23,119119,631Form 4
2026-02-26Haley Patrick J.officerAward / grant40,459422,367Form 4
2026-02-26Aftab DanaofficerAward / grant52,018668,124Form 4
2026-02-26Senner Christopher J.directorAward / grant52,0181,028,110Form 4
2026-02-24MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorGift100,2781,989,956Form 4
2026-02-18Smith JuliedirectorOption exercise44,08764,677Form 4
2026-02-18Smith JuliedirectorOption exercise20,03040,620Form 4
2026-02-18WYSZOMIERSKI JACK LdirectorOption exercise20,634379,516Form 4
2026-02-18MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorGift125,0941,454,115Form 4
2026-02-18MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorGift125,0942,090,234Form 4
2026-02-18Smith JuliedirectorOption exercise44,0870Form 4
2026-02-18Smith JuliedirectorOption exercise20,0300Form 4
2026-02-18WYSZOMIERSKI JACK LdirectorOption exercise20,6340Form 4
2026-02-17Smith JuliedirectorOption exercise42,42263,012Form 4
2026-02-17MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorGift250,7361,579,209Form 4
2026-02-17Smith JuliedirectorOption exercise42,4220Form 4
2026-02-17MORRISSEY MICHAELdirectorGift250,7361,965,140Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.