EXEExpand Energy CorporationEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $88.74 · now $88.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EXE has typically landed between $78.62 and $101.60 — a range of −11.4% to +14.5% from the issuance price $88.74.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,384 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($88.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EXE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $88.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$78.62worst · -11.4%$101.6best · +14.5%
  • now $88.74 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.79 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.95–$94.64
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $78.62–$101.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,384 windows spanning 2021-02-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-06-03−24.8%−24.8%+3.8%
2022-06-07−23.5%−27.5%+0.0%
2022-06-02−21.8%−22.1%+4.6%
3 best
2022-02-23+29.9%+0.0%+29.9%
2022-02-03+29.7%−3.1%+29.7%
2022-02-22+29.5%+0.0%+32.4%

1,384 overlapping windows · 2021-02-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$21.9B
market cap
$13.40
EPS (TTM)
6.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$11.6B
'20'25
Net income$1.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.27
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $88.74$29.24$892.00
  • DCF (intrinsic)$832.50
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$271.64
  • Analyst target · range $110.00–$146.00$129.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$88.74

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
80%
+0.3%
n=5
Feb
40%
+1.4%
n=5
Mar
67%
+5.3%
n=6
Apr
50%
−0.7%
n=6
May
67%
+6.1%
n=6
Jun
33%
−3.0%
n=6
Jul
67%
+1.1%
n=6
Aug
67%
+2.5%
n=6
Sep
50%
+2.1%
n=6
Oct
60%
+2.4%
n=5
Nov
60%
+5.7%
n=5
Dec
40%
−2.7%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$122$872026-06-12: 1 insider purchase, $89K — Wichterich Michael2026-06-04: 2 insider purchases, $279K — Teunissen Marcel, Wichterich Michael2026-05-07: 1 insider purchase, $193K — Teunissen Marcel2026-03-06: 2 insider purchases, $215K — Wichterich Michael …2026-02-19: 1 insider purchase, $101K — Gallagher Matthew2025-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $184K — Viets Joshua J.2025-08-15: 1 insider purchase, $240K — DELL'OSSO DOMENIC J JR2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $424K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $101K2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $215K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $193K2026-06: 3 open-market purchases, $368K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Wichterich Michael — Purchase on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Teunissen Marcel — Purchase on 2026-06-04, filed same daydirector Wichterich Michael — Purchase on 2026-06-04, filed same dayofficer Teunissen Marcel — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed same daydirector Wichterich Michael — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Wichterich Michael — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Gallagher Matthew — Purchase on 2026-02-19, filed same dayofficer Viets Joshua J. — Purchase on 2025-08-18, filed same daydirector DELL'OSSO DOMENIC J JR — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12Wichterich MichaeldirectorPurchase1,000 @ $88.90$89K+1.2% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open85,498Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-04Teunissen MarcelofficerPurchase2,000 @ $92.88$186K+21.9% of holding−3.1%not yet — horizon still open11,144Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-04Wichterich MichaeldirectorPurchase1,000 @ $93.36$93K+1.2% of holding−3.1%not yet — horizon still open84,498Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-07Teunissen MarcelofficerPurchase2,000 @ $96.43$193K+28.0% of holding−7.7%not yet — horizon still open9,144Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06Wichterich MichaeldirectorPurchase1,000 @ $108.00$108K+1.2% of holding−2.9%−23.0%83,498Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Wichterich MichaeldirectorPurchase1,000 @ $107.00$107K+1.2% of holding−2.9%−23.0%82,498Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-19Gallagher MatthewdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $100.66$101K+5.9% of holding+8.9%−18.4%17,917Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-18Viets Joshua J.officerPurchase2,000 @ $92.16$184K+3.4% of holding+4.7%+0.2%61,676Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15DELL'OSSO DOMENIC J JRdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $95.86$240K+1.5% of holding−0.1%+1.8%166,715Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-05DELL'OSSO DOMENIC J JRdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $99.50$249K+2.4% of holding+16.4%−14.9%107,845Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-04Steck BriandirectorAward / grant2,74620,258Form 4
2026-06-04Kehr Catherine AdirectorAward / grant2,3319,335Form 4
2026-06-04Gallagher MatthewdirectorAward / grant2,33120,248Form 4
2026-06-04Emerson Sarah A.directorAward / grant2,33117,932Form 4
2026-06-04Duster BenjamindirectorAward / grant2,33117,932Form 4
2026-06-04Duncan Timothy S.directorAward / grant2,33119,051Form 4
2026-06-04JOHNSON S P IVdirectorAward / grant2,33119,895Form 4
2026-06-04Konar ShameekdirectorAward / grant2,33110,042Form 4
2026-04-06Teunissen MarcelofficerAward / grant5,1447,144Form 4
2026-04-06Teunissen MarcelofficerAward / grant6,0016,001Form 4
2026-03-15Viets Joshua J.officerWithheld for tax6,46277,037Form 4
2026-03-15Viets Joshua J.officerWithheld for tax3,72883,499Form 4
2026-03-15Lacy Christopher WofficerWithheld for tax82059,031Form 4
2026-03-15Turco Daniel FofficerWithheld for tax77518,508Form 4
2026-03-15Larson Gregory M.officerWithheld for tax52214,836Form 4
2026-03-15Larson Gregory M.officerWithheld for tax27614,560Form 4
2026-03-15Raiford BrittanyofficerWithheld for tax17018,448Form 4
2026-03-15Viets Joshua J.officerAward / grant12,61812,618Form 4
2026-03-15Larson Gregory M.officerOption exercise88115,286Form 4
2026-03-15Lacy Christopher WofficerAward / grant5,69359,851Form 4
2026-03-15Lacy Christopher WofficerAward / grant6,6416,641Form 4
2026-03-15Larson Gregory M.officerOption exercise7215,358Form 4
2026-03-15Larson Gregory M.officerOption exercise8810Form 4
2026-03-15Larson Gregory M.officerOption exercise720Form 4
2026-03-15Larson Gregory M.officerAward / grant1,1861,186Form 4
2026-03-15Larson Gregory M.officerAward / grant2,37214,405Form 4
2026-03-15Viets Joshua J.officerAward / grant10,81572,491Form 4
2026-03-15Viets Joshua J.officerOption exercise13,62686,117Form 4
2026-03-15Viets Joshua J.officerOption exercise1,11087,227Form 4
2026-03-15Viets Joshua J.officerOption exercise13,6260Form 4
2026-03-15Viets Joshua J.officerOption exercise1,1100Form 4
2026-03-15Turco Daniel FofficerAward / grant5,69319,283Form 4
2026-03-15Raiford BrittanyofficerAward / grant3,55818,618Form 4
2026-03-15Raiford BrittanyofficerAward / grant1,7791,779Form 4
2026-03-15Turco Daniel FofficerAward / grant6,6416,641Form 4
2026-02-20Lacy Christopher WofficerWithheld for tax7,46254,158Form 4
2026-02-20Raiford BrittanyofficerWithheld for tax48515,060Form 4
2026-02-18Turco Daniel FofficerWithheld for tax74013,590Form 4
2026-02-09Wichterich MichaeldirectorAward / grant16,85681,498Form 4
2026-02-09Wichterich MichaeldirectorAward / grant16,85616,856Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-05-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-22$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-03-122026-02-17$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132024-10-23$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-07-25$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-21$100–250K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.