EXCExelon CorporationUtilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.44 · now $42.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EXC has typically landed between $38.98 and $46.42 — a range of −8.2% to +9.4% from the issuance price $42.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EXC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$38.98worst · -8.2%$46.42best · +9.4%
  • now $42.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.82 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.15–$44.49
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $38.98–$46.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−39.7%−39.7%+0.0%
2020-02-13−38.0%−38.0%+1.6%
2020-02-20−37.8%−38.8%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+24.0%+0.0%+30.5%
2020-09-23+22.4%+0.0%+22.9%
2020-09-21+22.0%−0.7%+22.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$48.6B
market cap
$2.74
EPS (TTM)
17.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$24.3B
'20'25
Net income$2.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$2.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.76
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $42.44$11.00$65.62
  • DCF (intrinsic)$14.77
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$61.85
  • Analyst target · range $41.00–$55.00$49.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$42.44

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.6%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.8%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.0%
n=19
May
58%
−0.5%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Aug
32%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
26%
−2.1%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
50%
+0.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$50$42↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-02-03Glockner DavidofficerSale6,051 @ $40.57$245K−9.6% of holding+10.3%+6.5%56,702Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Honorable Colette DofficerSale1,463 @ $40.57$59K−39.2% of holding+10.3%+6.5%2,271Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

280 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30BOWERS WILLIAM PdirectorAward / grant92521,266Form 4
2026-06-30Rogers Matthew CdirectorAward / grant7781,524Form 4
2026-06-30Cheshire Marjorie RodgersdirectorAward / grant44210,547Form 4
2026-06-30Lillie Charisse RdirectorAward / grant53,896Form 4
2026-04-28Segedi Bryan KdirectorAward / grant3,7203,720Form 4
2026-04-28BOWERS WILLIAM PdirectorAward / grant3,7203,720Form 4
2026-04-28Rogers Matthew CdirectorAward / grant3,7203,720Form 4
2026-04-28Lillie Charisse RdirectorAward / grant3,7203,720Form 4
2026-04-28Jojo Linda PdirectorAward / grant3,7203,720Form 4
2026-04-28RICHO ANNAdirectorAward / grant3,7203,720Form 4
2026-04-28Cheshire Marjorie RodgersdirectorAward / grant3,7203,720Form 4
2026-04-28DEWALT DAVID GdirectorAward / grant3,7203,720Form 4
2026-03-31DEWALT DAVID GdirectorAward / grant8784,009Form 4
2026-03-31BOWERS WILLIAM PdirectorAward / grant87819,978Form 4
2026-03-31RICHO ANNAdirectorAward / grant87811,337Form 4
2026-03-31Rogers Matthew CdirectorAward / grant87812,554Form 4
2026-03-31Jojo Linda PdirectorAward / grant87856,036Form 4
2026-03-31Cheshire Marjorie RodgersdirectorAward / grant87825,723Form 4
2026-03-31Lillie Charisse RdirectorAward / grant87812,554Form 4
2026-03-31Segedi Bryan KdirectorAward / grant8789,451Form 4
2026-03-31BOWERS WILLIAM PdirectorAward / grant88020,158Form 4
2026-03-31Rogers Matthew CdirectorAward / grant739739Form 4
2026-03-31Cheshire Marjorie RodgersdirectorAward / grant42110,013Form 4
2026-03-31Lillie Charisse RdirectorAward / grant53,855Form 4
2026-02-02BUTLER CALVIN JRdirectorWithheld for tax82,268294,377Form 4
2026-02-02BUTLER CALVIN JRdirectorDisposition31,793262,584Form 4
2026-02-02Jones Jeanne MofficerWithheld for tax16,05167,956Form 4
2026-02-02Innocenzo MichaelofficerWithheld for tax9,54794,001Form 4
2026-02-02Innocenzo MichaelofficerDisposition7,19986,802Form 4
2026-02-02Jones Jeanne MofficerDisposition7,15460,802Form 4
2026-02-02Kleczynski Robert AofficerDisposition4,96344,681Form 4
2026-02-02Kleczynski Robert AofficerWithheld for tax3,76849,644Form 4
2026-02-02Honorable Colette DofficerWithheld for tax3,1847,740Form 4
2026-02-02Honorable Colette DofficerAward / grant12,77712,777Form 4
2026-02-02Innocenzo MichaelofficerAward / grant20,66820,668Form 4
2026-02-02BUTLER CALVIN JRdirectorAward / grant111,956111,956Form 4
2026-02-02Jones Jeanne MofficerAward / grant24,70124,701Form 4
2026-02-02Jones Jeanne MofficerAward / grant18,78918,789Form 4
2026-02-02Kleczynski Robert AofficerAward / grant5,6735,673Form 4
2026-02-02Kleczynski Robert AofficerAward / grant7,0197,019Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-10-202025-10-15$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-08-292025-08-28$15–50K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$15–50K
Mary Gay ScanlonHousesale2023-06-052023-05-23$15–50K
Daniel GoldmanHousepurchase2023-04-172023-03-06$15–50K
Mary Gay ScanlonHouseexchange2022-08-262022-02-04$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-08-172020-07-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-08-172020-07-28$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.