Issued 2026-09-16 at $89.28 · now $89.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EW has typically landed between $78.10 and $99.92 — a range of −12.5% to +11.9% from the issuance price $89.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($89.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $89.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $89.28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $90.03 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.43–$94.62
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $78.1–$99.92
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-07-09 | −34.7% | −36.1% | +0.3% |
| 2024-06-25 | −34.5% | −34.5% | +3.0% |
| 2024-07-05 | −34.3% | −35.3% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +37.7% | +0.0% | +45.3% |
| 2020-03-18 | +31.9% | −9.2% | +31.9% |
| 2010-11-17 | +30.4% | +0.0% | +30.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$60.72
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$47.75
- Analyst target · range $85.00–$110.00$100.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$89.28
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 619 @ $87.51 | $54K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Dahl Andrew M. | officer | Sale | 544 @ $91.06 | $50K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,868 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-28 | Bruls Annette | officer | Sale | 2,644 @ $89.98 | $238K | −12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,984 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Sale | 30,646 @ $90.99 | $2.8M | −40.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,324 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Sale | 1,240 @ $91.47 | $113K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,294 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Sale | 1,154 @ $91.76 | $106K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 619 @ $92.03 | $57K | −1.5% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Sale | 146 @ $86.03 | $13K | −0.7% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,534 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Sale | 9,628 @ $85.06 | $819K | −30.8% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,680 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-27 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 2,921 @ $83.93 | $245K | −24.7% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-10 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 619 @ $91.70 | $57K | −1.5% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 619 @ $91.40 | $57K | −1.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,411 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 523 @ $87.92 | $46K | −4.3% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-29 | Dahl Andrew M. | officer | Sale | 568 @ $86.08 | $49K | −3.6% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-27 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 23,145 @ $86.42 | $2.0M | −19.0% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,611 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $84.60 | $127K | −3.3% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,324 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 620 @ $81.14 | $50K | −1.5% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,411 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 9,968 @ $82.07 | $818K | −30.4% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,798 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $81.82 | $655K | −20.5% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,970 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 35,506 @ $77.92 | $2.8M | −74.7% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,040 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 845 @ $78.40 | $66K | −1.7% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,546 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Sale | 593 @ $79.73 | $47K | −2.7% of holding | +13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,680 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $83.98 | $86K | −2.9% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,682 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $82.99 | $83K | −2.9% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,934 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 19 @ $83.99 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,934 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Sale | 8,324 @ $79.79 | $664K | −17.3% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,699 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Sale | 4,676 @ $80.50 | $376K | −8.9% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,023 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $80.98 | $83K | −2.9% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,934 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 18,004 @ $80.05 | $1.4M | −45.8% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,266 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 4,676 @ $80.59 | $377K | −10.6% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,270 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Sale | 7,901 @ $85.21 | $673K | −16.6% of holding | −9.2% | −10.7% | 39,699 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Sale | 5,099 @ $84.46 | $431K | −9.7% of holding | −9.2% | −10.7% | 47,600 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $85.38 | $87K | −2.9% of holding | −9.2% | −10.7% | 33,934 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 11,340 @ $85.93 | $974K | −34.8% of holding | −3.2% | −8.3% | 21,266 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $83.84 | $2.0M | −53.0% of holding | +5.1% | −2.3% | 21,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 19,898 @ $76.61 | $1.5M | −19.2% of holding | +11.1% | +5.3% | 83,896 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 2,532 @ $77.13 | $195K | −2.4% of holding | +11.1% | +5.3% | 103,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $85.70 | $87K | −4.4% of holding | −9.2% | −3.1% | 22,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 8,708 @ $85.98 | $749K | −21.5% of holding | −7.0% | −2.9% | 31,870 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 2,632 @ $84.62 | $223K | −6.1% of holding | −7.0% | −2.9% | 40,578 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 5,900 @ $83.74 | $494K | −13.1% of holding | −1.5% | −4.1% | 38,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 5,486 @ $83.79 | $460K | −10.9% of holding | −1.5% | −4.1% | 44,870 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | STONE HEISZ LESLIE | director | Sale | 2,615 @ $83.41 | $218K | −7.8% of holding | −1.5% | −4.1% | 30,948 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $84.03 | $86K | −4.4% of holding | −1.5% | −4.1% | 22,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-11 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $84.38 | $169K | −5.8% of holding | −1.4% | −7.7% | 32,201 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 11,340 @ $83.83 | $951K | −18.4% of holding | −2.5% | −7.1% | 50,356 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 3,863 @ $83.45 | $322K | −31.0% of holding | −2.5% | −7.1% | 8,597 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-09 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Sale | 7,700 @ $84.47 | $650K | −16.2% of holding | +0.3% | −5.6% | 39,898 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 21,487 @ $85.21 | $1.8M | −20.2% of holding | −0.9% | −4.7% | 84,839 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Sale | 583 @ $86.01 | $50K | −3.2% of holding | −0.9% | −4.7% | 17,563 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Sale | 10,026 @ $83.02 | $832K | −20.1% of holding | −1.1% | −12.8% | 39,898 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Sale | 2,974 @ $83.30 | $248K | −5.6% of holding | −1.1% | −12.8% | 49,924 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 1,020 @ $82.55 | $84K | −4.4% of holding | −1.1% | −12.8% | 22,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-25 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $81.95 | $205K | −7.5% of holding | −10.9% | −5.4% | 30,996 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | Wood Larry L | director | Sale | 8,950 @ $78.06 | $699K | −4.1% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 206,900 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-28 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 4,114 @ $79.46 | $327K | −15.8% of holding | +2.3% | −3.3% | 22,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-16 | Wood Larry L | director | Sale | 8,950 @ $75.23 | $673K | −4.1% of holding | −2.7% | −2.2% | 206,900 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-03 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 967 @ $77.32 | $75K | −10.1% of holding | −6.4% | −6.0% | 8,597 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-02 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Sale | 2,570 @ $77.40 | $199K | −4.9% of holding | −6.4% | −6.2% | 50,356 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-30 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Sale | 16,099 @ $77.21 | $1.2M | −62.7% of holding | −6.4% | −5.8% | 9,564 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
234 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Withheld for tax | 568 | 19,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Dahl Andrew M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 253 | 14,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 40,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Withheld for tax | 398 | 43,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Withheld for tax | 355 | 19,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 3,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Option exercise | 31,800 | 76,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Option exercise | 31,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 40,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 4,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Option exercise | 9,628 | 31,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Markowitz Wayne | officer | Option exercise | 9,628 | 9,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Gift | 320 | 98,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Gift | 320 | 11,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bruls Annette | officer | Withheld for tax | 109 | 20,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 40,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 4,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mistras Theodora | officer | Award / grant | 12,325 | 99,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mistras Theodora | officer | Award / grant | 61,800 | 61,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mistras Theodora | officer | Award / grant | 12,325 | 12,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mistras Theodora | officer | Award / grant | 87,595 | 87,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 377 | 40,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 41,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 5,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 620 | 41,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Option exercise | 620 | 6,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Gift | 26,640 | 99,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Gift | 26,640 | 48,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Withheld for tax | 26,198 | 125,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Withheld for tax | 11,004 | 46,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,538 | 45,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,469 | 32,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Lippis Daniel J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 362 | 40,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Option exercise | 19,830 | 57,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Option exercise | 19,830 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Gift | 5,489 | 21,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Chopra Daveen | officer | Option exercise | 13,583 | 53,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Zovighian Bernard J | director | Gift | 5,489 | 104,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Option exercise | 13,457 | 40,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | BOBO DONALD E JR | officer | Option exercise | 13,457 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-12-29 | 2025-11-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $50–100K |
| Bruce Westerman | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-21 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.