Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.05 · now $5.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EVLV has typically landed between $3.48 and $7.15 — a range of −31.2% to +41.6% from the issuance price $5.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,482 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EVLV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.07 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.29–$5.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.48–$7.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,482 windows spanning 2020-09-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-14 | −54.6% | −54.6% | +3.5% |
| 2022-02-11 | −52.8% | −52.8% | +6.9% |
| 2022-02-15 | −50.6% | −56.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-05 | +99.1% | +0.0% | +99.1% |
| 2024-11-04 | +95.1% | +0.0% | +95.1% |
| 2023-04-25 | +90.8% | +0.0% | +96.4% |
1,482 overlapping windows · 2020-09-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−4.3%
n=6
Feb
33%
−3.0%
n=6
Mar
33%
−3.0%
n=6
Apr
50%
+7.6%
n=6
May
67%
+14.3%
n=6
Jun
50%
−2.4%
n=6
Jul
67%
+4.7%
n=6
Aug
50%
+3.3%
n=6
Sep
17%
−11.4%
n=6
Oct
33%
−4.2%
n=6
Nov
50%
+13.5%
n=6
Dec
50%
−2.3%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Purchase | 13,500 @ $4.96 | $67K | +17.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 93,065 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Purchase | 9,000 @ $4.98 | $45K | +30.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Purchase | 6,500 @ $4.95 | $32K | +28.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Purchase | 3,600 @ $4.94 | $18K | +22.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,752 @ $5.59 | $451K | −3.7% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Kuhl Henrik | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $5.73 | $86K | ownership Δ n/a | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Glat Neil | director | Purchase | 8,500 @ $5.74 | $49K | +3.5% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 252,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $5.94 | $480K | −3.7% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $6.21 | $501K | −3.7% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Marshall Robert E | officer | Sale | 62,067 @ $6.85 | $425K | −43.3% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,296 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $5.63 | $455K | −3.7% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Kutsor George C | officer | Sale | 51,448 @ $7.27 | $374K | −37.0% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $6.32 | $510K | −3.7% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 91,771 @ $5.10 | $468K | −4.2% of holding | +21.6% | −16.7% | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 82,913 @ $5.19 | $430K | −3.7% of holding | +18.1% | −15.0% | 2,175,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Chitkara Anil | officer | Sale | 63,670 @ $5.19 | $330K | −4.5% of holding | +18.1% | −15.0% | 1,348,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $5.47 | $442K | −3.7% of holding | −2.0% | −16.2% | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $6.20 | $501K | −3.7% of holding | −11.7% | −18.5% | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Kedzierski John | director | Sale | 74,322 @ $7.03 | $522K | −34.6% of holding | −25.4% | −26.2% | 140,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $6.91 | $558K | −3.7% of holding | −7.6% | −26.3% | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Marshall Robert E | officer | Purchase | 7,000 @ $6.06 | $42K | ownership Δ n/a | +4.9% | −8.7% | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Charlton Kevin M. | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $5.68 | $85K | +51.6% of holding | +9.1% | −8.3% | 44,081 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Kedzierski John | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $5.91 | $47K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.1% | −8.3% | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $6.00 | $180K | +133.2% of holding | +19.3% | −3.5% | 52,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Purchase | 8,800 @ $6.02 | $53K | +115.8% of holding | +19.3% | −3.5% | 16,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Purchase | 7,500 @ $6.02 | $45K | +50.0% of holding | +19.3% | −3.5% | 22,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $5.80 | $468K | −3.7% of holding | +20.0% | −9.7% | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Chitkara Anil | officer | Sale | 120,000 @ $8.20 | $984K | −8.6% of holding | −21.7% | −17.3% | 1,275,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Chitkara Anil | officer | Sale | 120,000 @ $8.20 | $984K | −8.3% of holding | −23.4% | −23.2% | 1,324,519 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Chitkara Anil | officer | Sale | 70,581 @ $8.20 | $579K | −4.7% of holding | −23.4% | −23.2% | 1,444,519 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Chitkara Anil | officer | Sale | 49,419 @ $8.20 | $405K | −3.7% of holding | −23.4% | −23.2% | 1,275,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $8.26 | $667K | −3.7% of holding | −21.4% | −28.9% | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 80,745 @ $8.46 | $683K | −3.7% of holding | −2.0% | −39.1% | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Gates Frontier, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 776,236 @ $8.20 | $6.4M | −4.3% of holding | +2.1% | −37.3% | 17,189,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Gates Frontier, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 694,464 @ $8.03 | $5.6M | −3.7% of holding | −3.9% | −39.1% | 17,965,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Chitkara Anil | officer | Sale | 72,148 @ $3.30 | $238K | −5.4% of holding | −4.6% | +136.3% | 1,275,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Sale | 56,263 @ $3.30 | $186K | −2.6% of holding | −4.6% | +136.3% | 2,083,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,752 | 2,164,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,752 | 816,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,745 | 2,164,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,745 | 897,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Award / grant | 28,318 | 28,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Award / grant | 28,318 | 28,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Glat Neil | director | Award / grant | 28,318 | 28,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kuhl Henrik | director | Award / grant | 28,318 | 28,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Sheehy Kimberly H. | director | Award / grant | 28,318 | 28,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Charlton Kevin M. | director | Award / grant | 28,318 | 28,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Glat Neil | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Charlton Kevin M. | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 359,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Charlton Kevin M. | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sheehy Kimberly H. | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 170,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sheehy Kimberly H. | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sullivan Mark J. | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 242,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sullivan Mark J. | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 79,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Glat Neil | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 243,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mounts Gonzales David | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 201,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mounts Gonzales David | director | Option exercise | 27,050 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Kuhl Henrik | director | Option exercise | 9,291 | 9,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Kuhl Henrik | director | Option exercise | 9,291 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,745 | 2,164,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,745 | 977,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Marshall Robert E | officer | Option exercise | 136,363 | 143,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Marshall Robert E | officer | Option exercise | 136,363 | 272,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,745 | 2,164,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,745 | 1,058,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Kutsor George C | officer | Option exercise | 138,888 | 138,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Kutsor George C | officer | Option exercise | 138,888 | 277,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,745 | 2,164,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 80,745 | 1,139,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Kedzierski John | director | Award / grant | 373,831 | 373,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Marshall Robert E | officer | Award / grant | 186,915 | 186,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chitkara Anil | officer | Award / grant | 46,728 | 46,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Kutsor George C | officer | Award / grant | 186,915 | 186,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Chitkara Anil | officer | Option exercise | 53,430 | 1,328,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ellenbogen Michael | director | Option exercise | 57,392 | 2,141,353 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.