Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.74 · now $3.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EVH has typically landed between $2.82 and $4.74 — a range of −24.5% to +26.7% from the issuance price $3.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,816 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-06-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EVH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.64 (-2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.24–$4.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.82–$4.74
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −68.1% | −68.1% | +3.2% |
| 2020-02-14 | −65.4% | −68.2% | +2.7% |
| 2020-02-18 | −65.1% | −67.7% | +4.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-02 | +77.3% | +0.0% | +77.3% |
| 2026-03-30 | +74.7% | +0.0% | +74.7% |
| 2020-07-13 | +73.1% | +0.0% | +73.1% |
2,816 overlapping windows · 2015-06-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Sale | 65,892 @ $5.00 | $329K | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 655,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Springstubb Brendan B | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.82 | $38K | +20.5% of holding | −3.2% | −17.2% | 58,821 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Springstubb Brendan B | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $9.27 | $139K | +126.7% of holding | +16.7% | −5.8% | 26,842 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Jelinek Richard M | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $9.16 | $137K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.7% | −5.8% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Jelinek Richard M | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $9.09 | $136K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.7% | −5.8% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | KECK KIM | director | Purchase | 10,540 @ $9.44 | $99K | +36.4% of holding | +16.7% | −5.8% | 39,522 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Blackley Seth | director | Purchase | 55,225 @ $9.01 | $498K | +7.8% of holding | +18.8% | −10.5% | 762,217 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | GRUA PETER J | director | Purchase | 11,040 @ $9.01 | $99K | +143.2% of holding | +18.8% | −10.5% | 18,749 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Purchase | 11,040 @ $9.01 | $99K | +2.9% of holding | +18.8% | −10.5% | 389,004 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Glass Russell Monroe | director | Purchase | 5,400 @ $9.27 | $50K | +60.9% of holding | +18.8% | −10.5% | 14,272 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Holder Diane | director | Purchase | 2,735 @ $9.33 | $26K | +4.0% of holding | +18.8% | −10.5% | 70,584 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Barbarosh Craig A. | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $8.81 | $18K | +6.7% of holding | +18.8% | −10.5% | 31,956 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Springstubb Brendan B | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.75 | $44K | +73.1% of holding | +19.6% | −0.2% | 11,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Blackley Seth | director | Withheld for tax | 10,297 | 1,272,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,582 | 721,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Weinberg Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,650 | 284,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 302,585 | 725,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Weinberg Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 43,055 | 287,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blackley Seth | director | Award / grant | 446,102 | 1,283,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Shams Aammaad | officer | Award / grant | 28,790 | 95,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ajayi Toyin | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 75,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Springstubb Brendan B | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 99,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Smith Jill D. | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 64,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | KECK KIM | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 102,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Jelinek Richard M | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 77,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | GUERTIN SHAWN M | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 63,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | GRUA PETER J | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 63,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Glass Russell Monroe | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 77,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Barbarosh Craig A. | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 95,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Blackley Seth | director | Withheld for tax | 24,053 | 836,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,027 | 423,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Weinberg Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,275 | 244,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Shams Aammaad | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,311 | 66,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,192 | 447,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Blackley Seth | director | Withheld for tax | 17,736 | 861,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Weinberg Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,896 | 252,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Shams Aammaad | officer | Withheld for tax | 850 | 71,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Blackley Seth | director | Award / grant | 1,425,310 | 1,425,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Shams Aammaad | officer | Award / grant | 1,686 | 72,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Shams Aammaad | officer | Award / grant | 55,173 | 55,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Weinberg Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 4,910 | 254,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Weinberg Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 179,661 | 179,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Blackley Seth | director | Award / grant | 58,921 | 878,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ramos Mario | officer | Award / grant | 429,041 | 429,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 39,281 | 465,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 826,440 | 826,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Blackley Seth | director | Withheld for tax | 9,537 | 819,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | McCarthy Daniel Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,811 | 425,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Weinberg Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,406 | 249,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Shams Aammaad | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,577 | 70,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ramos Mario | officer | Award / grant | 587,500 | 587,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Smith Jill D. | director | Award / grant | 23,137 | 23,137 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Shams Aammaad | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,567 | 72,899 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.