Issued 2026-09-25 at $98.57 · now $98.57 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ETR has typically landed between $91.32 and $109.06 — a range of −7.4% to +10.6% from the issuance price $98.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($98.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ETR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $98.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $98.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $99.76 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $95.91–$103.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $91.32–$109.06
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −39.9% | −39.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −39.2% | −39.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −36.8% | −36.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +27.3% | +0.0% | +31.7% |
| 2009-04-30 | +19.8% | +0.0% | +19.8% |
| 2020-03-20 | +18.4% | −2.3% | +28.7% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$10.27
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$88.49
- Analyst target · range $109.00–$135.00$123.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$98.57
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Sale | 9,068 @ $103.93 | $942K | −49.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Landreaux Laura R | other | Sale | 5,600 @ $106.20 | $595K | −19.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Ropp Ralph Lewis | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $106.08 | $106K | +41.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,423 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Sale | 9,447 @ $109.06 | $1.0M | −35.5% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | COOK-NELSON KIMBERLY | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $115.00 | $575K | −14.0% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Sale | 10,638 @ $110.00 | $1.2M | −42.9% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Sale | 2,900 @ $106.23 | $308K | −100.0% of holding | +11.3% | −13.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Sale | 1,820 @ $106.84 | $194K | −14.9% of holding | +11.3% | −13.5% | 10,417 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Sale | 554 @ $106.30 | $59K | −13.7% of holding | +11.3% | −13.5% | 3,476 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | HUDSON JOHN O III | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $104.79 | $1.0M | −65.4% of holding | +1.8% | −11.0% | 5,294 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | DINELLI JOHN C | officer | Sale | 5,372 @ $103.95 | $558K | −18.5% of holding | +2.1% | −10.5% | 23,609 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Brown Marcus V | officer | Sale | 21,428 @ $105.12 | $2.3M | −45.9% of holding | +2.6% | −10.1% | 25,252 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $105.47 | $949K | −34.5% of holding | +2.6% | −10.1% | 17,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Sale | 8,238 @ $102.44 | $844K | −24.0% of holding | +2.6% | −10.1% | 26,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Sale | 947 @ $97.16 | $92K | −24.8% of holding | −5.1% | −0.1% | 2,875 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Landreaux Laura R | other | Sale | 2,500 @ $93.66 | $234K | −10.5% of holding | −6.2% | +5.9% | 21,357 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Ropp Ralph Lewis | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $96.69 | $97K | +2000.0% of holding | −3.5% | +6.3% | 1,050 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Sale | 5,136 @ $96.50 | $496K | −39.4% of holding | −2.5% | +9.6% | 7,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | MINOR ANASTASIA | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $96.39 | $482K | −33.1% of holding | −2.5% | +9.6% | 10,122 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $96.61 | $483K | −16.1% of holding | −2.1% | +10.8% | 25,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Ellis Brian W | director | Sale | 43 @ $96.12 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | −2.5% | +17.7% | 12,912 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Sale | 7,542 @ $96.45 | $727K | −22.5% of holding | −0.9% | +17.3% | 25,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | MINOR ANASTASIA | other | Sale | 145 @ $91.00 | $13K | −1.0% of holding | −2.7% | +7.3% | 15,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Sale | 4,463 @ $90.50 | $404K | −57.4% of holding | −4.0% | −2.6% | 3,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | COOK-NELSON KIMBERLY | officer | Sale | 21,160 @ $90.20 | $1.9M | −48.7% of holding | −2.9% | −1.0% | 22,319 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | COOK-NELSON KIMBERLY | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $88.00 | $660K | −25.2% of holding | +0.7% | −0.0% | 22,319 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Ellis Brian W | director | Sale | 647 @ $82.32 | $53K | −5.4% of holding | −6.0% | +2.1% | 11,298 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | FONTAN KIMBERLY A. | officer | Sale | 27,890 @ $81.95 | $2.3M | −38.5% of holding | −4.1% | +3.0% | 44,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | RODRIGUEZ DEANNA D. | other | Sale | 3,220 @ $82.64 | $266K | −34.1% of holding | +8.9% | −4.1% | 6,234 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Sale | 767 @ $84.37 | $65K | −21.4% of holding | +8.1% | −6.4% | 2,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Sale | 17,844 @ $87.34 | $1.6M | −69.7% of holding | +3.7% | −8.3% | 7,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | NORGEOT PETER S JR | officer | Sale | 19,336 @ $86.78 | $1.7M | −18.3% of holding | +3.5% | −6.9% | 86,065 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
268 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Option exercise | 2,616 | 14,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Option exercise | 2,824 | 16,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Option exercise | 1,488 | 18,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Option exercise | 1,488 | 2,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Option exercise | 2,616 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | VIAMONTES ELIECER | other | Option exercise | 2,824 | 2,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | PUCKETT KAREN A | director | Award / grant | 218 | 34,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | LEVENICK STUART L | director | Award / grant | 218 | 47,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Hyland M Elise | director | Award / grant | 218 | 19,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | FREDERICKSON PHILIP L | director | Award / grant | 218 | 33,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | ADAMS GINA F. | director | Award / grant | 218 | 439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | BLACK JOHN H. | director | Award / grant | 218 | 8,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | DONALD KIRKLAND H | director | Award / grant | 218 | 15,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ellis Brian W | director | Award / grant | 218 | 14,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Burbank John R | director | Award / grant | 218 | 5,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ropp Ralph Lewis | director | Award / grant | 218 | 3,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CALDWELL JAMES FRANK JR | director | Award / grant | 218 | 1,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Option exercise | 5,140 | 24,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Option exercise | 2,573 | 26,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Option exercise | 1,734 | 18,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Option exercise | 1,734 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Option exercise | 2,573 | 5,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | CHAPMAN JASON | officer | Option exercise | 5,140 | 5,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Option exercise | 7,128 | 21,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Option exercise | 3,510 | 24,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Option exercise | 7,128 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | FISACKERLY HALEY | director | Option exercise | 3,510 | 3,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Burbank John R | director | Award / grant | 221 | 5,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | ADAMS GINA F. | director | Award / grant | 858 | 7,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | ADAMS GINA F. | director | Award / grant | 221 | 221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BLACK JOHN H. | director | Award / grant | 221 | 7,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BLACK JOHN H. | director | Award / grant | 858 | 8,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Burbank John R | director | Award / grant | 858 | 17,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | CALDWELL JAMES FRANK JR | director | Award / grant | 221 | 523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | CALDWELL JAMES FRANK JR | director | Award / grant | 501 | 1,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | DONALD KIRKLAND H | director | Award / grant | 858 | 24,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | DONALD KIRKLAND H | director | Award / grant | 221 | 15,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ellis Brian W | director | Award / grant | 858 | 14,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ellis Brian W | director | Award / grant | 221 | 14,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | FREDERICKSON PHILIP L | director | Award / grant | 858 | 33,418 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | purchase | 2024-09-02 | 2023-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-20 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | sale | 2023-10-10 | 2023-09-08 | $1–15K |
| Zoe Lofgren | House | sale | 2023-06-06 | 2023-05-25 | $1–15K |
| Kurt Schrader | House | exchange | 2022-12-08 | 2022-11-08 | $500K–1M |
| Lois Frankel | House | purchase | 2020-05-28 | 2020-04-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-05-13 | 2020-04-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2020-05-13 | 2020-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Mikie Sherrill | House | sale | 2020-04-05 | 2020-02-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2020-03-09 | 2020-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-04-11 | 2019-03-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.