Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.25 · now $28.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ETOR has typically landed between $21.75 and $34.30 — a range of −23.0% to +21.4% from the issuance price $28.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
317 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-05-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ETOR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $28.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.62 (-5.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.63–$28.61
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.75–$34.3
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-07-25 | −31.3% | −31.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | −29.4% | −29.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-07-28 | −28.5% | −30.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-19 | +32.5% | −1.6% | +32.5% |
| 2026-04-07 | +30.4% | +0.0% | +31.5% |
| 2026-04-06 | +28.9% | −1.9% | +29.0% |
317 overlapping windows · 2025-05-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Eddy Shalev | director | Sale | 99,100 @ $31.19 | $3.1M | −33.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 197,679 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Eddy Shalev | director | Sale | 900 @ $31.92 | $29K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 196,779 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | POLITI SANTO | director | Sale | 5,783 @ $28.01 | $162K | −100.0% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 23 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ber Hedva | officer | Sale | 55,160 @ $41.90 | $2.3M | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Eddy Shalev | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $41.26 | $4.1M | −25.2% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 296,779 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | POLITI SANTO | director | Sale | 2,892 @ $41.04 | $119K | −100.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
22 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Stepak Avner | director | Conversion | 33,848 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Stepak Avner | director | Conversion | 33,848 | 62,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | POLITI SANTO | director | Other acquisition | 5,783 | 5,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | POLITI SANTO | director | Disposition | 23,280 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | POLITI SANTO | director | Disposition | 3,559,007 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Shemesh Lior | director | Award / grant | 5,220 | 9,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | UNGER LAURA S | director | Award / grant | 5,220 | 9,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ber Hedva | officer | Option exercise | 22,500 | 49,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ber Hedva | officer | Option exercise | 20,660 | 20,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ber Hedva | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 26,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ber Hedva | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 55,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ber Hedva | officer | Option exercise | 22,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ber Hedva | officer | Option exercise | 20,660 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ber Hedva | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | POLITI SANTO | director | Disposition | 11,640 | 23,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | POLITI SANTO | director | Other acquisition | 2,892 | 2,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | POLITI SANTO | director | Disposition | 1,779,504 | 3,559,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Ber Hedva | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Stepak Avner | director | Award / grant | 9,270 | 9,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Shani Meron | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Eddy Shalev | director | Award / grant | 9,270 | 9,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | POLITI SANTO | director | Award / grant | 9,270 | 11,377 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.