ETDEthan Allen Interiors Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliancesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.62 · now $21.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ETD has typically landed between $19.16 and $24.73 — a range of −11.4% to +14.4% from the issuance price $21.62.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ETD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$19.16worst · -11.4%$24.73best · +14.4%
  • now $21.62 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.71 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.59–$22.84
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.16–$24.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−38.4%−38.4%+0.0%
2009-02-05−37.8%−37.8%+6.7%
2008-10-22−37.1%−37.1%+1.4%
3 best
2009-03-06+83.1%−0.6%+85.6%
2009-03-11+82.3%+0.0%+82.3%
2009-03-09+76.9%+0.0%+86.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.8%
n=20
Apr
45%
+0.1%
n=20
May
35%
−1.0%
n=20
Jun
40%
−2.5%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.4%
n=20
Aug
55%
+1.5%
n=20
Sep
35%
−1.0%
n=20
Oct
40%
+0.8%
n=20
Nov
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Dec
55%
+3.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$182026-09-02: 3 insider sales, $584K — KATHWARI M FAROOQ …2026-08-05: 1 insider purchase, $25K — Tsai Cynthia Ekberg2026-01-22: 3 insider sales, $56K — KATHWARI M FAROOQ …2025-12-15: 3 insider sales, $8K — KATHWARI M FAROOQ …2025-12-11: 2 insider sales, $380K — KATHWARI M FAROOQ …2025-10-15: 2 insider sales, $425K — KATHWARI M FAROOQ …2025-09-15: 2 insider sales, $446K — KATHWARI M FAROOQ …2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $446K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $425K2025-12: 5 open-market sales, $387K2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $56K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $25K2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $584K↑ buys↓ salesdirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed same daydirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed same daydirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed same daydirector Tsai Cynthia Ekberg — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed same daydirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed same daydirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed same daydirector KATHWARI M FAROOQ — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale22,811 @ $25.04$571K−1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,465,530Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-02KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale266 @ $25.04$7K−1.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open22,081Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-02KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale265 @ $25.04$7K−1.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open22,077Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05Tsai Cynthia EkbergdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $24.61$25Kownership Δ n/a−7.3%not yet — horizon still open1,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-22KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale2,168 @ $25.01$54K−0.1% of holding−5.1%−12.3%1,483,228Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-22KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale27 @ $25.01$675−0.1% of holding−5.1%−12.3%22,342Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-22KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale25 @ $25.01$625−0.1% of holding−5.1%−12.3%22,347Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale303 @ $25.05$8K−0.0% of holding−2.3%−21.7%1,485,396Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale6 @ $25.05$150−0.0% of holding−2.3%−21.7%22,369Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale3 @ $25.05$75−0.0% of holding−2.3%−21.7%22,372Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-11KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale15,000 @ $25.01$375K−1.0% of holding−3.4%−21.8%1,485,699Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $25.01$4K−0.8% of holding−3.4%−21.8%22,375Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale15,000 @ $28.01$420K−0.9% of holding−18.9%−23.8%1,583,652Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-15KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $28.01$5K−0.8% of holding−18.9%−23.8%22,550Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-15KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale15,000 @ $29.37$441K−0.9% of holding−5.6%−23.8%1,598,652Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-15KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $29.37$5K−0.8% of holding−5.6%−23.8%22,725Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale10,000 @ $26.85$269K−0.6% of holding+0.2%−28.6%1,611,905Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19Diefenbach Douglas H.officerSale666 @ $27.17$18K−9.8% of holding+0.2%−28.6%6,097Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $26.85$5K−0.8% of holding+0.2%−28.6%22,900Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-17KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale10,000 @ $26.31$263K−0.6% of holding−9.4%−19.9%1,621,905Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-17KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $26.31$5K−0.8% of holding−9.4%−19.9%23,075Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-17KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale10,000 @ $26.70$267K−0.6% of holding+1.6%−5.4%1,631,905Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-17KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $26.70$5K−0.7% of holding+1.6%−5.4%23,250Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale10,000 @ $29.27$293K−0.6% of holding+1.0%+1.2%1,641,905Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $29.27$5K−0.7% of holding+1.0%+1.2%23,425Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-17KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale10,000 @ $28.67$287K−0.6% of holding+0.6%+1.2%1,651,905Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-17KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $28.67$5K−0.7% of holding+0.6%+1.2%23,600Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-17KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale10,000 @ $29.91$299K−0.6% of holding−3.6%−5.8%1,661,905Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorSale175 @ $29.91$5K−0.7% of holding−3.6%−5.8%23,775Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorOption exercise7,9731,473,503Form 4
2026-09-11KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorWithheld for tax7,2041,466,299Form 4
2026-09-11Phillips AmyofficerOption exercise99023,467Form 4
2026-09-11McNulty Matthew JofficerOption exercise67719,922Form 4
2026-09-11Phillips AmyofficerWithheld for tax35423,113Form 4
2026-09-11McNulty Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax16919,753Form 4
2026-08-10KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorWithheld for tax3,2721,488,341Form 4
2026-08-10Phillips AmyofficerWithheld for tax41722,477Form 4
2026-08-10McNulty Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax23919,245Form 4
2026-08-07KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorWithheld for tax3,8901,491,613Form 4
2026-08-07Phillips AmyofficerWithheld for tax49622,894Form 4
2026-08-07McNulty Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax28419,484Form 4
2026-08-06KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorWithheld for tax3,9481,495,503Form 4
2026-08-06Phillips AmyofficerWithheld for tax50423,390Form 4
2026-08-06McNulty Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax28819,768Form 4
2026-08-05KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorAward / grant16,2231,499,451Form 4
2026-08-05Phillips AmyofficerAward / grant7,83723,894Form 4
2026-08-05McNulty Matthew JofficerAward / grant6,42620,056Form 4
2026-08-05Stacom Tara I.directorAward / grant1,3067,606Form 4
2026-08-05Casar Perez Maria EugeniadirectorAward / grant1,3061,306Form 4
2026-08-05Casar Perez Maria EugeniadirectorAward / grant1,3061,306Form 4
2026-08-05Sable David M.directorAward / grant1,3061,306Form 4
2026-08-05Stacom Tara I.directorAward / grant1,3067,606Form 4
2026-08-05Tsai Cynthia EkbergdirectorAward / grant1,3062,306Form 4
2026-08-05Sable David M.directorAward / grant1,3061,306Form 4
2026-08-05Tsai Cynthia EkbergdirectorAward / grant1,3062,306Form 4
2025-12-04KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorGift82,9531,500,699Form 4
2025-08-29KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorOption exercise45,5691,657,763Form 4
2025-08-29KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorWithheld for tax44,1111,613,652Form 4
2025-08-29Phillips AmyofficerOption exercise2,78617,030Form 4
2025-08-29McNulty Matthew JofficerOption exercise2,12414,524Form 4
2025-08-29Phillips AmyofficerWithheld for tax97316,057Form 4
2025-08-29McNulty Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax89413,630Form 4
2025-08-11KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorWithheld for tax5,1431,612,194Form 4
2025-08-11Phillips AmyofficerWithheld for tax55614,244Form 4
2025-08-11McNulty Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax31612,400Form 4
2025-08-11Diefenbach Douglas H.officerWithheld for tax1645,933Form 4
2025-08-08KATHWARI M FAROOQdirectorWithheld for tax3,5071,617,337Form 4
2025-08-08Phillips AmyofficerWithheld for tax42114,800Form 4
2025-08-08McNulty Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax24212,716Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.