ETEnergy Transfer LPEnergy · Oil & Gas Midstreamas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.11 · now $21.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ET has typically landed between $19.26 and $23.56 — a range of −8.8% to +11.6% from the issuance price $21.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ET has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$19.26worst · -8.8%$23.56best · +11.6%
  • now $21.11 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.54 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.79–$22.3
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.26–$23.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−64.0%−64.0%+0.0%
2020-03-02−61.1%−61.7%+0.0%
2020-02-21−60.5%−62.4%+0.0%
3 best
2016-03-29+95.1%−5.3%+95.1%
2016-04-05+93.7%+0.0%+105.9%
2016-04-06+93.1%+0.0%+93.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
75%
+3.0%
n=20
Feb
75%
+2.5%
n=20
Mar
65%
−0.2%
n=20
Apr
70%
+10.8%
n=20
May
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Jun
65%
+2.3%
n=20
Jul
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
40%
−3.9%
n=20
Oct
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Nov
55%
+1.5%
n=20
Dec
40%
+0.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$22$152026-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $13.8M — WARREN KELCY L2026-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $7.5M — WARREN KELCY L2026-08-07: 1 insider purchase, $250K — Perry James Richard2025-11-20: 1 insider purchase, $16.8M — WARREN KELCY L2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $16.9M — WARREN KELCY L2025-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $23.4M — WARREN KELCY L2025-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $11.2M — WARREN KELCY L2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $34.7M2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $33.8M2026-08: 3 open-market purchases, $21.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector WARREN KELCY L — Purchase on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WARREN KELCY L — Purchase on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Perry James Richard — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector WARREN KELCY L — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed same daydirector WARREN KELCY L — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WARREN KELCY L — Purchase on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WARREN KELCY L — Purchase on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19WARREN KELCY LdirectorPurchase647,968 @ $21.26$13.8M+0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open147,901,879Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18WARREN KELCY LdirectorPurchase352,032 @ $21.27$7.5M+0.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open147,253,911Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07Perry James RicharddirectorPurchase12,359 @ $20.23$250K+6.3% of holding+7.8%not yet — horizon still open208,046Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-20WARREN KELCY LdirectorPurchase1,000,000 @ $16.81$16.8M+1.0% of holding−7.3%+6.4%105,577,803Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-19WARREN KELCY LdirectorPurchase1,000,000 @ $16.95$16.9M+1.0% of holding−6.1%+9.8%104,577,803Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20WARREN KELCY LdirectorPurchase1,350,000 @ $17.36$23.4M+2.0% of holding−4.5%+5.2%69,178,477Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19WARREN KELCY LdirectorPurchase650,000 @ $17.30$11.2M+1.0% of holding−3.0%+5.6%67,828,477Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-13Perry James RicharddirectorSale1,369 @ $18.48$25K−5.3% of holding−9.7%−20.9%24,523Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2023-11-06Perry James RicharddirectorPurchase25,892 @ $13.52$350Kownership Δ n/a−4.6%+3.5%25,892Form 4 · filed 589 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

61 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-08WARREN KELCY LdirectorAward / grant1,109,27914,978,717Form 4
2026-01-02Anderson Steven R.directorAward / grant7,42383,303Form 4
2026-01-02Ramsey Matthew S.directorAward / grant7,4231,168,212Form 4
2026-01-02Grimm Michael KdirectorAward / grant7,423751,138Form 4
2026-01-02MCREYNOLDS JOHN WdirectorAward / grant7,423686,236Form 4
2026-01-02Perry James RicharddirectorAward / grant7,423195,687Form 4
2025-12-29Perry James RicharddirectorGift10188,264Form 4
2025-12-29Anderson Steven R.directorGift1075,880Form 4
2025-12-29Grimm Michael KdirectorGift10243,715Form 4
2025-12-05MCCREA MARSHALL S IIIdirectorWithheld for tax381,9477,157,669Form 4
2025-12-05Long Thomas EdirectorWithheld for tax330,6374,318,653Form 4
2025-12-05Bramhall DylanofficerWithheld for tax47,251697,325Form 4
2025-12-05Wright James M.officerWithheld for tax46,534836,837Form 4
2025-12-05McIlwain Gregory G.officerWithheld for tax46,255652,731Form 4
2025-12-05Sturrock TroyofficerWithheld for tax22,745356,413Form 4
2025-12-05Long Thomas EdirectorAward / grant704,4385,023,091Form 4
2025-12-05Bramhall DylanofficerAward / grant200,438897,763Form 4
2025-12-05Wright James M.officerAward / grant180,3751,017,212Form 4
2025-12-05MCCREA MARSHALL S IIIdirectorAward / grant704,4387,862,107Form 4
2025-12-05Sturrock TroyofficerAward / grant56,775413,188Form 4
2025-12-05MCCREA MARSHALL S IIIdirectorAward / grant234,812463,716Form 4
2025-12-05Wright James M.officerAward / grant60,125110,767Form 4
2025-12-05Bramhall DylanofficerAward / grant66,812122,063Form 4
2025-12-05Sturrock TroyofficerAward / grant18,92535,300Form 4
2025-12-05MCCREA MARSHALL S IIIdirectorAward / grant234,812463,716Form 4
2025-12-05Wright James M.officerAward / grant60,125110,767Form 4
2025-12-05Bramhall DylanofficerAward / grant66,812122,063Form 4
2025-12-05Sturrock TroyofficerAward / grant18,92535,300Form 4
2025-12-05Long Thomas EdirectorAward / grant234,812463,716Form 4
2025-12-05Long Thomas EdirectorAward / grant234,812463,716Form 4
2025-01-02Brannon Richard DdirectorAward / grant7,760180,317Form 4
2025-01-02Anderson Steven R.directorAward / grant7,76075,870Form 4
2025-01-02Grimm Michael KdirectorAward / grant7,760243,705Form 4
2025-01-02MCREYNOLDS JOHN WdirectorAward / grant7,760678,813Form 4
2025-01-02Perry James RicharddirectorAward / grant7,760188,254Form 4
2025-01-02Ramsey Matthew S.directorAward / grant7,7601,160,789Form 4
2024-12-23Grimm Michael KdirectorGift10235,945Form 4
2024-12-23Brannon Richard DdirectorGift10172,557Form 4
2024-12-23Anderson Steven R.directorGift1068,110Form 4
2024-12-23Perry James RicharddirectorGift10180,494Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.