ESTAEstablishment Labs Holdings Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $71.16 · now $71.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ESTA has typically landed between $53.31 and $90.03 — a range of −25.1% to +26.5% from the issuance price $71.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,030 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($71.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ESTA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $71.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$53.31worst · -25.1%$90.03best · +26.5%
  • now $71.16 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $72.1 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $64.91–$79.3
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.31–$90.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,030 windows spanning 2018-07-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−69.5%−69.5%+0.6%
2020-02-19−53.0%−69.6%+0.0%
2020-02-20−52.7%−69.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+109.3%+0.0%+109.3%
2025-10-10+73.8%+0.0%+73.8%
2021-01-08+72.0%+0.0%+72.0%

2,030 overlapping windows · 2018-07-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
38%
+2.8%
n=8
Feb
75%
+12.0%
n=8
Mar
25%
−7.4%
n=8
Apr
75%
+5.4%
n=8
May
63%
+1.7%
n=8
Jun
50%
+3.4%
n=8
Jul
50%
+2.3%
n=8
Aug
44%
−5.8%
n=9
Sep
22%
−6.2%
n=9
Oct
50%
+2.7%
n=8
Nov
75%
+9.8%
n=8
Dec
100%
+10.0%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$96$342026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $4.7M — JW Asset Management, LLC2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $8K — JW Asset Management, LLC2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — JW Asset Management, LLC2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — JW Asset Management, LLC2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $253K — JW Asset Management, LLC2026-05-06: 3 insider sales, $12.5M — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose, JW Asset Management, LLC …2026-05-04: 2 insider sales, $546K — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose …2026-05-01: 2 insider sales, $4.8M — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose …2026-04-27: 3 insider sales, $144K — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose …2026-04-24: 2 insider sales, $2.0M — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose …2026-04-23: 4 insider sales, $2.8M — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose …2026-04-14: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose2026-03-25: 1 insider sale, $215K — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose2026-03-23: 4 insider sales, $2.0M — Chacon Quiros Juan Jose …2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $738K — JW Asset Management, LLC2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $163K — JW Asset Management, LLC2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $493K — JW Asset Management, LLC2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $2K — JW Asset Management, LLC2025-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $98K — LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDAN2025-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $79K — LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDAN2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $278K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $2K2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $2.3M2026-04: 10 open-market sales, $7.4M2026-05: 12 open-market sales, $25.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed same daydirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed same daydirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed same daydirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed same daydirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chacon Quiros Juan Jose — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector JW Asset Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDAN — Purchase on 2025-08-14, filed same daydirector LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDAN — Purchase on 2025-08-13, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-28JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale65,100 @ $72.89$4.7M−2.2% of holding+21.3%not yet — horizon still open2,890,582Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-27JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale113 @ $72.50$8K−0.0% of holding+26.5%not yet — horizon still open2,955,682Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale25,320 @ $74.39$1.9M−0.8% of holding+24.5%not yet — horizon still open2,955,795Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-21JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale16,999 @ $71.40$1.2M−0.6% of holding+23.1%not yet — horizon still open2,981,115Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale3,580 @ $70.56$253K−0.1% of holding+22.2%not yet — horizon still open2,998,114Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale93,206 @ $75.33$7.0M−9.0% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open939,298Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale60,000 @ $75.63$4.5M−2.0% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open3,001,694Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale11,794 @ $76.10$898K−1.3% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open927,504Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale7,651 @ $70.47$539K−0.7% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open1,032,604Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale100 @ $71.34$7K−0.0% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open1,032,504Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale41,265 @ $70.52$2.9M−3.7% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open1,066,239Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale25,984 @ $71.18$1.8M−2.4% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open1,040,255Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-27Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale1,008 @ $66.46$67K−0.1% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open1,107,669Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-27Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale1,007 @ $65.91$66K−0.1% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open1,108,677Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-27Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale165 @ $67.14$11K−0.0% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open1,107,504Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-24Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale22,610 @ $65.66$1.5M−2.0% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open1,117,252Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-24Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale7,568 @ $66.13$500K−0.7% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open1,109,684Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale30,549 @ $65.33$2.0M−2.6% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open1,147,019Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale6,757 @ $66.20$447K−0.6% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open1,140,262Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale4,936 @ $64.83$320K−0.4% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open1,177,568Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale400 @ $67.36$27K−0.0% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open1,139,862Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-14Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale37,500 @ $65.23$2.4M−3.1% of holding−3.0%not yet — horizon still open1,182,504Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale3,575 @ $60.08$215K−0.3% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open1,220,004Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale31,425 @ $60.23$1.9M−2.5% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open1,226,079Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale1,513 @ $62.62$95K−0.1% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open1,223,779Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale787 @ $61.70$49K−0.1% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open1,225,292Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorSale200 @ $63.01$13K−0.0% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open1,223,579Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale11,000 @ $67.07$738K−0.4% of holding+6.1%−7.5%3,061,694Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale2,500 @ $65.09$163K−0.1% of holding+7.4%−4.2%3,072,694Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-06JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale7,591 @ $65.00$493K−0.2% of holding+7.7%−0.8%3,075,194Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale940 @ $2.18$2K−100.0% of holding−5.5%+75.4%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-14LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDANdirectorPurchase2,600 @ $37.85$98K+15.8% of holding−5.4%+90.3%19,090Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-13LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDANdirectorPurchase2,300 @ $34.30$79K+16.2% of holding−4.2%+85.6%16,490Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-11Caldini FilippodirectorPurchase2,850 @ $35.20$100K+8.8% of holding+10.2%+106.4%35,245Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-07JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale200 @ $4.10$820−100.0% of holding−5.7%+32.6%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-03JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale15 @ $3.30$50−100.0% of holding−2.8%+48.2%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-01JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale9,700 @ $44.38$430K−0.3% of holding−5.7%+56.2%3,082,785Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-24JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale100 @ $1.45$145−100.0% of holding−21.0%−12.9%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-04JW Asset Management, LLCdirectorSale100,000 @ $45.15$4.5M−3.1% of holding+7.3%−12.2%3,092,485Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Caldini FilippodirectorWithheld for tax68248,829Form 4
2026-06-30LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDANdirectorAward / grant2911,079,960Form 4
2026-06-30Custin AnndirectorAward / grant23924,325Form 4
2026-06-30SCHUTTER EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant216177,952Form 4
2026-06-30Gillin LesliedirectorAward / grant19618,594Form 4
2026-06-30Slotkin BryandirectorAward / grant18932,799Form 4
2026-06-24Harris Taylor C.directorAward / grant1,9491,949Form 4
2026-06-24Harris Taylor C.directorAward / grant1,2813,230Form 4
2026-05-22Slotkin BryandirectorAward / grant2,35432,610Form 4
2026-05-22Custin AnndirectorAward / grant2,35424,086Form 4
2026-05-22SCHUTTER EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant2,354177,736Form 4
2026-05-22LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDANdirectorAward / grant2,3541,079,669Form 4
2026-05-22Gillin LesliedirectorAward / grant2,35418,398Form 4
2026-04-24Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorAward / grant11,31556,508Form 4
2026-04-24LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDANdirectorAward / grant19,56119,561Form 4
2026-04-02SCHUTTER EDWARD JdirectorOption exercise36,7800Form 4
2026-04-02SCHUTTER EDWARD JdirectorOption exercise36,780175,382Form 4
2026-04-02SCHUTTER EDWARD JdirectorOption exercise36,780175,382Form 4
2026-03-31LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDANdirectorAward / grant4401,077,315Form 4
2026-03-31Custin AnndirectorAward / grant36321,732Form 4
2026-03-31SCHUTTER EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant330138,602Form 4
2026-03-31Gillin LesliedirectorAward / grant29716,044Form 4
2026-03-31Slotkin BryandirectorAward / grant28630,256Form 4
2026-03-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorOther acquisition179,2401,257,504Form 4
2026-03-23Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorOther acquisition179,24045,193Form 4
2026-03-09HARRIS CASSANDRAofficerAward / grant7,3727,372Form 4
2026-03-09HARRIS CASSANDRAofficerAward / grant12,87712,877Form 4
2026-03-06Mansbach Samuel RossotherWithheld for tax65718,663Form 4
2026-02-18Caldini FilippodirectorAward / grant8,18543,430Form 4
2026-02-18Caldini FilippodirectorAward / grant14,27514,275Form 4
2026-02-16Mansbach Samuel RossotherAward / grant7,1317,131Form 4
2026-02-16Mansbach Samuel RossotherAward / grant4,08219,320Form 4
2025-12-31LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDANdirectorAward / grant3431,076,875Form 4
2025-12-31Custin AnndirectorAward / grant28221,369Form 4
2025-12-31SCHUTTER EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant257138,272Form 4
2025-12-31Gillin LesliedirectorAward / grant23115,747Form 4
2025-12-31Slotkin BryandirectorAward / grant22229,970Form 4
2025-12-17Chacon Quiros Juan JosedirectorGift50,0001,078,264Form 4
2025-09-30LEWIN NICHOLAS SHERIDANdirectorAward / grant6091,076,532Form 4
2025-09-30Custin AnndirectorAward / grant50321,087Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.