ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $271.34 · now $271.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ESS has typically landed between $243.22 and $295.63 — a range of −10.4% to +9.0% from the issuance price $271.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($271.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ESS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $271.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$243.22worst · -10.4%$295.63best · +9.0%
  • now $271.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $273.26 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $262.6–$283.91
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $243.22–$295.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−44.6%−44.6%+0.0%
2020-02-24−42.3%−44.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−39.8%−39.8%+0.9%
3 best
2020-03-23+35.5%+0.0%+44.5%
2020-10-28+34.2%+0.0%+41.1%
2020-10-19+30.6%−6.4%+32.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$18.9B
market cap
$8.90
EPS (TTM)
33.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$1.9B
'20'25
Net income$672M
'20'25
Free cash flow$934M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr35.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.25
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $271.34$233.95$776.08
  • DCF (intrinsic)$738.69
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$292.57
  • Analyst target · range $278.00–$352.00$296.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$271.34

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−0.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.9%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.4%
n=19
May
68%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
63%
−0.1%
n=19
Jul
84%
+3.2%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.9%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
44%
+0.4%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$298$2352026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $168K — Kasaris Mary2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $168K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kasaris Mary — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-27Kasaris MarydirectorSale600 @ $279.45$168K−20.0% of holding+9.3%not yet — horizon still open2,394Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Kasaris MarydirectorSale2,800 @ $300.80$842K−61.5% of holding−6.2%−27.2%1,755Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04Kleiman Angela L.directorSale400 @ $315.12$126K−2.8% of holding+2.6%−25.7%13,662Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03GUERICKE KEITH RdirectorSale7,298 @ $315.00$2.3M−31.2% of holding+1.8%−25.8%16,118Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Pak BarbaraofficerSale6,318 @ $314.79$2.0M−42.2% of holding+1.8%−25.8%8,654Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Kleiman Angela L.directorSale4,929 @ $314.99$1.6M−26.5% of holding+1.8%−25.8%13,662Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Morrison AnneofficerSale2,571 @ $314.79$809K−43.1% of holding+1.8%−25.8%3,389Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

76 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-12Kasaris MarydirectorAward / grant6332,994Form 4
2026-05-12LYONS IRVING F IIIdirectorAward / grant6339,809Form 4
2026-05-12Arabia John VdirectorAward / grant6331,824Form 4
2026-05-12MARCUS GEORGE MdirectorAward / grant1,117223,042Form 4
2026-05-12GUERICKE KEITH RdirectorAward / grant63317,357Form 4
2026-05-12GUST ANNE BdirectorAward / grant6331,830Form 4
2026-05-12Johnson Amal MdirectorAward / grant6333,824Form 4
2026-05-12HAWTHORNE MARIA RdirectorAward / grant6333,711Form 4
2026-02-18Kleiman Angela L.directorWithheld for tax48121,972Form 4
2026-02-18Pak BarbaraofficerWithheld for tax20612,239Form 4
2026-02-18Burns RylanofficerWithheld for tax1212,232Form 4
2026-02-18Morrison AnneofficerWithheld for tax896,880Form 4
2026-02-18McGreevy BrennanofficerWithheld for tax24715Form 4
2026-02-06Kleiman Angela L.directorWithheld for tax47322,453Form 4
2026-02-06Pak BarbaraofficerWithheld for tax21512,445Form 4
2026-02-06Morrison AnneofficerWithheld for tax816,969Form 4
2026-02-06Burns RylanofficerWithheld for tax802,353Form 4
2026-02-06McGreevy BrennanofficerWithheld for tax60739Form 4
2025-12-29Kleiman Angela L.directorGift2,53422,926Form 4
2025-12-12Kleiman Angela L.directorWithheld for tax12,17625,460Form 4
2025-12-12Pak BarbaraofficerWithheld for tax4,13812,660Form 4
2025-12-12Morrison AnneofficerWithheld for tax3,7807,050Form 4
2025-12-12Kleiman Angela L.directorAward / grant23,97437,636Form 4
2025-12-12Morrison AnneofficerAward / grant7,44110,830Form 4
2025-12-12Pak BarbaraofficerAward / grant8,14416,798Form 4
2025-12-09Burns RylanofficerWithheld for tax1782,433Form 4
2025-12-09McGreevy BrennanofficerWithheld for tax28799Form 4
2025-05-28MARCUS GEORGE MdirectorOption exercise13,418221,925Form 4
2025-05-28MARCUS GEORGE MdirectorOption exercise13,4180Form 4
2025-05-22LYONS IRVING F IIIdirectorOther acquisition5859,176Form 4
2025-05-22LYONS IRVING F IIIdirectorOther acquisition585585Form 4
2025-05-13Arabia John VdirectorAward / grant6061,191Form 4
2025-05-13Kasaris MarydirectorAward / grant6062,361Form 4
2025-05-13GUST ANNE BdirectorAward / grant6061,191Form 4
2025-05-13MARCUS GEORGE MdirectorAward / grant1,069208,507Form 4
2025-05-13HAWTHORNE MARIA RdirectorAward / grant6063,078Form 4
2025-05-13GUERICKE KEITH RdirectorAward / grant60616,724Form 4
2025-05-13Johnson Amal MdirectorAward / grant6063,191Form 4
2025-05-13LYONS IRVING F IIIdirectorAward / grant6069,761Form 4
2025-03-11Kasaris MarydirectorOption exercise2,8004,555Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousesale2026-01-142026-01-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-06-122023-05-23$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousepurchase2023-05-262021-07-07$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.