ESRT · TickerCove

ESRTEmpire State Realty Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.09 · now $4.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ESRT has typically landed between $3.50 and $4.68 — a range of −14.5% to +14.3% from the issuance price $4.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,237 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.09 · 0% of range

$4.09 low$7.84 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.5%

typical move · IQR 13.0%

−14.5%worst (p90)+14.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ESRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.09 (+0.0%)
typical $4.03 (-1.5%)
middle 50% $3.76–$4.3
90% range $3.5–$4.68

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,237 windows spanning 2013-10-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−45.8%	−45.8%	+1.0%
2020-02-21	−43.5%	−45.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−41.6%	−46.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-04	+82.8%	−0.8%	+82.8%
2020-10-28	+77.6%	−1.6%	+80.6%
2020-11-06	+74.7%	+0.0%	+84.2%

3,237 overlapping windows · 2013-10-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

54%

+1.2%

n=13

Feb

38%

−2.3%

n=13

Mar

54%

−2.6%

n=13

Apr

46%

−2.3%

n=13

May

62%

−0.1%

n=13

Jun

62%

+1.1%

n=13

Jul

46%

+2.6%

n=13

Aug

46%

−3.2%

n=13

Sep

38%

−2.3%

n=13

Oct

42%

−1.0%

n=12

Nov

77%

+6.9%

n=13

Dec

54%

−1.0%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-03-24	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Sale	11,843 @ $8.02	$95K	−21.1% of holding	−4.0%	−20.9%	44,185	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-21	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Sale	5,779 @ $8.03	$46K	−9.4% of holding	−4.0%	−24.6%	56,028	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-20	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Sale	12,500 @ $8.15	$102K	−16.8% of holding	−5.4%	−27.0%	61,807	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-19	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Sale	12,500 @ $8.11	$101K	−14.4% of holding	−5.1%	−21.8%	74,307	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-24	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $10.10	$101K	−10.3% of holding	−7.7%	−22.6%	86,807	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-18	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Sale	3,193 @ $10.90	$35K	−3.2% of holding	−9.8%	−24.3%	96,807	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-15	GILBERT STEVEN J	director	Award / grant	23,856	227,721	Form 4
2026-05-15	GILBERT STEVEN J	director	Award / grant	19,236	246,957	Form 4
2026-05-15	Hood Robert Paige	director	Award / grant	23,856	193,541	Form 4
2026-05-15	Hood Robert Paige	director	Award / grant	19,236	212,777	Form 4
2026-05-15	Hill Grant	director	Award / grant	23,856	173,692	Form 4
2026-05-15	Hill Grant	director	Award / grant	19,236	192,928	Form 4
2026-05-15	Robinson James D IV	director	Award / grant	23,856	246,485	Form 4
2026-05-15	Robinson James D IV	director	Award / grant	19,236	265,721	Form 4
2026-05-15	YANG HANNAH Y	director	Award / grant	23,856	67,248	Form 4
2026-05-15	Giliberto Salvatore Michael	director	Award / grant	23,856	172,306	Form 4
2026-05-15	Giliberto Salvatore Michael	director	Award / grant	19,236	191,542	Form 4
2026-05-15	HAN PATRICIA	director	Award / grant	23,856	149,979	Form 4
2026-05-15	Van Tassell Christina	director	Award / grant	23,856	67,248	Form 4
2026-05-15	Malkin George L.W.	director	Award / grant	23,856	38,071	Form 4
2026-03-13	Horn Stephen	officer	Award / grant	69,988	224,690	Form 4
2026-03-13	MALKIN ANTHONY E	director	Award / grant	601,384	6,961,958	Form 4
2026-03-13	MALKIN ANTHONY E	director	Award / grant	599,133	7,561,091	Form 4
2026-03-13	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Award / grant	321,670	1,900,494	Form 4
2026-03-13	Chiu Christina	officer	Award / grant	261,808	1,759,022	Form 4
2026-03-13	Sutherland Donna Jean	officer	Award / grant	11,584	17,836	Form 4
2026-02-03	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Award / grant	263,831	3,211,106	Form 4
2026-02-03	MALKIN ANTHONY E	director	Award / grant	499,603	6,360,574	Form 4
2026-02-03	Chiu Christina	officer	Award / grant	196,957	1,497,214	Form 4
2026-02-03	Horn Stephen	officer	Award / grant	16,027	154,702	Form 4
2025-07-17	Malkin George L.W.	director	Award / grant	14,215	14,215	Form 4
2025-05-16	Robinson James D IV	director	Award / grant	13,352	222,629	Form 4
2025-05-16	Hill Grant	director	Award / grant	16,484	136,484	Form 4
2025-05-16	Hill Grant	director	Award / grant	13,352	149,836	Form 4
2025-05-16	Hood Robert Paige	director	Award / grant	16,484	156,333	Form 4
2025-05-16	Hood Robert Paige	director	Award / grant	13,352	169,685	Form 4
2025-05-16	GILBERT STEVEN J	director	Award / grant	16,484	190,513	Form 4
2025-05-16	GILBERT STEVEN J	director	Award / grant	13,352	203,865	Form 4
2025-05-16	Giliberto Salvatore Michael	director	Award / grant	16,484	148,450	Form 4
2025-05-16	Robinson James D IV	director	Award / grant	16,484	209,277	Form 4
2025-05-16	HAN PATRICIA	director	Award / grant	16,484	126,123	Form 4
2025-05-16	Van Tassell Christina	director	Award / grant	16,484	43,392	Form 4
2025-05-16	YANG HANNAH Y	director	Award / grant	16,484	43,392	Form 4
2025-03-13	Durels Thomas P.	officer	Award / grant	200,547	2,947,275	Form 4
2025-03-13	Chiu Christina	officer	Award / grant	169,084	1,300,257	Form 4
2025-03-13	Horn Stephen	officer	Award / grant	43,528	138,675	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i