ESOAEnergy Services of America CorporationIndustrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.09 · now $11.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ESOA has typically landed between $8.82 and $15.50 — a range of −20.5% to +39.8% from the issuance price $11.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,994 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-10-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ESOA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.82worst · -20.5%$15.5best · +39.8%
  • now $11.09 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.06 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.8–$12.32
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.82–$15.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,994 windows spanning 2006-10-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2013-04-02−52.3%−52.3%+47.7%
2019-04-29−49.2%−49.2%+0.0%
2012-10-16−41.2%−41.2%+0.0%
3 best
2013-05-01+352.4%+0.0%+376.2%
2013-05-08+216.7%+0.0%+233.3%
2020-12-09+172.7%+0.0%+172.7%

4,994 overlapping windows · 2006-10-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+5.8%
n=20
Feb
65%
+10.0%
n=20
Mar
25%
−5.1%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.2%
n=20
May
35%
+0.1%
n=20
Jun
50%
+2.6%
n=20
Jul
45%
−1.3%
n=20
Aug
30%
+0.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Oct
53%
+4.8%
n=19
Nov
40%
−0.2%
n=20
Dec
55%
+6.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$82026-06-18: 1 insider purchase, $98K — REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $525K — REYNOLDS MARSHALL T2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — REYNOLDS MARSHALL T2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $706K — REYNOLDS MARSHALL T2026-05-27: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — REYNOLDS MARSHALL T, Prince Mark2026-03-20: 1 insider purchase, $64K — REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V2026-03-19: 1 insider purchase, $20K — REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V2025-12-19: 1 insider purchase, $32K — REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V2025-12-18: 1 insider purchase, $22K — REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V2025-12-17: 1 insider sale, $837K — REYNOLDS MARSHALL T2025-12-17: 1 insider purchase, $22K — REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V2025-12: 3 open-market purchases, $76K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $837K2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $83K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $3.3M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $98K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $525K↑ buys↓ salesdirector REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V — Purchase on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed same daydirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Prince Mark — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V — Purchase on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V — Purchase on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V — Purchase on 2025-12-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V — Purchase on 2025-12-18, filed 5 days after the tradedirector REYNOLDS MARSHALL T — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector REYNOLDS DOUGLAS V — Purchase on 2025-12-17, filed 6 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18REYNOLDS DOUGLAS VdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $16.26$98K+0.4% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open1,487,270Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-01REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorSale35,058 @ $14.98$525K−2.8% of holding+26.9%not yet — horizon still open1,225,373Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorSale64,942 @ $15.70$1.0M−4.9% of holding+30.8%not yet — horizon still open1,260,431Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorSale43,243 @ $16.32$706K−3.2% of holding+17.9%not yet — horizon still open1,325,373Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-27REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorSale56,757 @ $17.19$976K−4.0% of holding+17.0%not yet — horizon still open1,368,616Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Prince MarkdirectorSale33,000 @ $17.80$587K−33.0% of holding+17.0%not yet — horizon still open67,071Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-20REYNOLDS DOUGLAS VdirectorPurchase4,809 @ $13.26$64K+0.3% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open1,481,270Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-19REYNOLDS DOUGLAS VdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $13.04$20K+0.1% of holding+6.7%not yet — horizon still open1,476,461Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-19REYNOLDS DOUGLAS VdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $8.07$32K+0.3% of holding+12.7%+112.3%1,474,961Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-18REYNOLDS DOUGLAS VdirectorPurchase2,600 @ $8.35$22K+0.2% of holding+10.4%+121.1%1,470,961Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-17REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorSale100,000 @ $8.37$837K−6.6% of holding+4.2%+102.8%1,425,373Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-17REYNOLDS DOUGLAS VdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $8.65$22K+0.2% of holding+4.2%+102.8%1,468,361Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-05-19Crimmel Charles P.officerPurchase500 @ $9.40$5K+9.3% of holding+5.3%−8.6%5,879Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-16Farrell Patrick JdirectorPurchase1,772 @ $8.46$15K+16.6% of holding+25.3%+7.3%12,459Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-12Prince MarkdirectorPurchase21,000 @ $10.96$230K+26.6% of holding−6.4%−17.9%100,071Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2024-12-20REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorSale34,713 @ $16.04$557K−2.2% of holding−17.0%−44.4%1,525,373Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-19REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorSale8,212 @ $16.30$134K−0.5% of holding−9.7%−45.8%1,560,086Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18REYNOLDS MARSHALL TdirectorSale11,005 @ $17.20$189K−0.7% of holding−15.7%−45.8%1,568,298Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-17Lucente Frank SdirectorSale5,000 @ $17.50$88K−1.8% of holding−21.9%−46.0%273,337Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

6 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-22Taylor Troy AlanofficerWithheld for tax4988,445Form 4
2026-01-29Crimmel Charles P.officerAward / grant2,7818,660Form 4
2026-01-29Crimmel Charles P.officerWithheld for tax5218,139Form 4
2025-12-17REYNOLDS DOUGLAS VdirectorWithheld for tax3,2511,465,861Form 4
2025-01-17Crimmel Charles P.officerWithheld for tax2695,379Form 4
2025-01-15Crimmel Charles P.officerAward / grant1,9855,648Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.