ESNTEssent Group Ltd.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $67.82 · now $67.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ESNT has typically landed between $60.63 and $75.21 — a range of −10.6% to +10.9% from the issuance price $67.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,216 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($67.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ESNT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $67.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$60.63worst · -10.6%$75.21best · +10.9%
  • now $67.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $68.66 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.44–$71.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $60.63–$75.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,216 windows spanning 2013-10-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−60.3%−60.3%+0.0%
2020-02-21−58.4%−59.2%+0.0%
2020-02-24−54.0%−58.5%+0.1%
3 best
2020-04-27+48.8%+0.0%+48.8%
2020-05-13+47.7%+0.0%+60.9%
2020-05-06+44.7%−2.3%+44.7%

3,216 overlapping windows · 2013-10-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
62%
+1.7%
n=13
Feb
23%
−1.6%
n=13
Mar
54%
−1.6%
n=13
Apr
54%
−1.1%
n=13
May
69%
+3.4%
n=13
Jun
69%
+2.4%
n=13
Jul
69%
+2.7%
n=13
Aug
85%
+4.5%
n=13
Sep
54%
−1.6%
n=13
Oct
50%
+2.7%
n=12
Nov
77%
+2.6%
n=13
Dec
46%
+0.2%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$70$562026-09-14: 2 insider sales, $332K — KASMAR ROY JAMES …2026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $56K — CASALE MARK2026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $174K — PAULS DOUGLAS J2026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — CASALE MARK2026-08-18: 2 insider sales, $2.4M — CASALE MARK, Bhasin Vijay2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $34K — Bhasin Vijay2026-07-17: 1 insider sale, $314K — Gibbons Mary Lourdes2026-07-14: 1 insider sale, $5.1M — CASALE MARK2026-07-13: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — CASALE MARK2026-07-07: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — CASALE MARK2026-07-06: 1 insider sale, $81K — CASALE MARK2026-06-30: 1 insider sale, $245K — CASALE MARK2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $349K — WEINSTOCK DAVID B2026-04-28: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — CASALE MARK, Gibbons Mary Lourdes2026-04-20: 1 insider sale, $481K — Gibbons Mary Lourdes2026-04-17: 1 insider sale, $55K — Gibbons Mary Lourdes2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $292K — Gibbons Mary Lourdes2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $200K — KASMAR ROY JAMES2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $200K — Dutt Aditya2025-09-18: 2 insider sales, $1.0M — Bhasin Vijay, Gibbons Mary Lourdes2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $158K — WEINSTOCK DAVID B2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $405K — SPIEGEL WILLIAM2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $233K — Gibbons Mary Lourdes2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $638K2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $1.2M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $400K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $292K2026-04: 4 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $594K2026-07: 5 open-market sales, $9.0M2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $4.1M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $388K↑ buys↓ salesdirector KASMAR ROY JAMES — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed same daydirector KASMAR ROY JAMES — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed same daydirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector PAULS DOUGLAS J — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bhasin Vijay — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed same dayofficer Bhasin Vijay — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 7 days after the tradeofficer Gibbons Mary Lourdes — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed 3 days after the tradedirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-07-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WEINSTOCK DAVID B — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CASALE MARK — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gibbons Mary Lourdes — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gibbons Mary Lourdes — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gibbons Mary Lourdes — Sale on 2026-04-17, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gibbons Mary Lourdes — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector KASMAR ROY JAMES — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 14 days after the tradedirector Dutt Aditya — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bhasin Vijay — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gibbons Mary Lourdes — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer WEINSTOCK DAVID B — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SPIEGEL WILLIAM — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gibbons Mary Lourdes — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorSale2,500 @ $68.70$172K−10.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open21,361Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-14KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorSale2,337 @ $68.73$161K−8.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open23,861Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-03CASALE MARKdirectorSale798 @ $70.01$56K−0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,038,893Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-24PAULS DOUGLAS JdirectorSale2,500 @ $69.70$174K−7.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,154Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19CASALE MARKdirectorSale21,607 @ $70.07$1.5M−1.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,039,691Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18CASALE MARKdirectorSale20,246 @ $70.18$1.4M−1.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,061,298Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Bhasin VijayofficerSale14,175 @ $70.00$992K−7.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open184,274Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-07Bhasin VijayofficerSale483 @ $70.00$34K−0.2% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open198,449Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2026-07-17Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale4,678 @ $67.04$314K−2.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open228,658Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-14CASALE MARKdirectorSale78,699 @ $65.23$5.1M−3.6% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open2,081,544Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13CASALE MARKdirectorSale23,900 @ $65.07$1.6M−1.1% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open2,160,243Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-07CASALE MARKdirectorSale29,329 @ $65.35$1.9M−1.3% of holding+0.0%not yet — horizon still open2,184,143Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-06CASALE MARKdirectorSale1,245 @ $65.08$81K−0.1% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open2,213,472Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-30CASALE MARKdirectorSale3,763 @ $65.01$245K−0.2% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open2,214,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-26WEINSTOCK DAVID BofficerSale5,500 @ $63.51$349K−13.4% of holding+3.6%not yet — horizon still open35,494Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-28CASALE MARKdirectorSale13,064 @ $65.05$850K−0.6% of holding−15.3%not yet — horizon still open2,218,480Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale4,250 @ $65.01$276K−1.8% of holding−15.3%not yet — horizon still open233,336Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-20Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale7,628 @ $63.01$481K−3.1% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open237,586Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-17Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale872 @ $63.00$55K−0.4% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open245,214Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-18Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale4,352 @ $67.00$292K−1.8% of holding−9.5%−18.8%237,896Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-14KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorSale3,250 @ $61.44$200K−12.1% of holding+5.6%−9.7%23,573Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade
2025-11-11Dutt AdityadirectorSale3,250 @ $61.49$200K−10.2% of holding+3.5%−12.1%28,722Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-18Bhasin VijayofficerSale11,479 @ $65.00$746K−5.5% of holding−9.7%−10.5%196,922Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-18Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale4,000 @ $65.00$260K−1.6% of holding−9.7%−10.5%243,023Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-15WEINSTOCK DAVID BofficerSale2,500 @ $63.33$158K−9.1% of holding−4.7%−8.7%24,865Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13SPIEGEL WILLIAMdirectorSale6,451 @ $62.74$405K−19.7% of holding+0.2%−0.7%26,252Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale3,760 @ $62.00$233K−1.5% of holding+1.8%−1.6%247,023Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-01Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale240 @ $62.00$15K−0.1% of holding−11.2%−3.9%250,783Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-23Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale1,999 @ $60.00$120K−0.8% of holding−12.4%−4.5%251,023Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16WEINSTOCK DAVID BofficerSale2,500 @ $58.79$147K−8.4% of holding−9.5%−2.0%27,365Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-15KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorSale3,235 @ $58.82$190K−11.9% of holding−1.5%−9.7%23,905Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13PAULS DOUGLAS JdirectorSale3,000 @ $59.80$179K−9.9% of holding−2.9%−11.6%27,165Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-12Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale1,777 @ $60.07$107K−0.7% of holding−4.5%−12.9%253,022Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-09Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerSale224 @ $60.03$13K−0.1% of holding−7.4%−14.1%254,799Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

266 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorGift2,6250Form 4
2026-09-14KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorGift2,62526,198Form 4
2026-09-10Connor Martin P.directorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10Curran Christopher GofficerAward / grant4673,325Form 4
2026-09-10Dutt AdityadirectorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10Galda April JoycedirectorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10Karna AnudirectorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerAward / grant3592,556Form 4
2026-09-10Heise Angela LdirectorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10SPIEGEL WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10WEINSTOCK DAVID BofficerAward / grant3542,943Form 4
2026-09-10PAULS DOUGLAS JdirectorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10Benson David CdirectorAward / grant1328Form 4
2026-09-10Bhasin VijayofficerAward / grant3232,300Form 4
2026-09-10CASALE MARKdirectorAward / grant2,70819,806Form 4
2026-08-24PAULS DOUGLAS JdirectorGift2,6250Form 4
2026-08-24PAULS DOUGLAS JdirectorGift2,62532,654Form 4
2026-06-10Dutt AdityadirectorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-06-10Curran Christopher GofficerAward / grant5392,858Form 4
2026-06-10KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-06-10WEINSTOCK DAVID BofficerAward / grant4092,589Form 4
2026-06-10SPIEGEL WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-06-10PAULS DOUGLAS JdirectorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-06-10Karna AnudirectorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-06-10Gibbons Mary LourdesofficerAward / grant4152,197Form 4
2026-06-10Heise Angela LdirectorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-06-10Galda April JoycedirectorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-06-10Benson David CdirectorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-06-10Bhasin VijayofficerAward / grant3731,977Form 4
2026-06-10CASALE MARKdirectorAward / grant3,12917,098Form 4
2026-06-10Connor Martin P.directorAward / grant1515Form 4
2026-05-07SPIEGEL WILLIAMdirectorOption exercise2,5692,443Form 4
2026-05-07Heise Angela LdirectorOption exercise2,5692,443Form 4
2026-05-07Heise Angela LdirectorOption exercise560Form 4
2026-05-07KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorOption exercise2,5692,443Form 4
2026-05-07KASMAR ROY JAMESdirectorOption exercise560Form 4
2026-05-07PAULS DOUGLAS JdirectorOption exercise560Form 4
2026-05-07Benson David CdirectorOption exercise560Form 4
2026-05-07SPIEGEL WILLIAMdirectorOption exercise560Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.