ESIElement Solutions IncBasic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.10 · now $32.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ESI has typically landed between $28.06 and $37.18 — a range of −12.6% to +15.8% from the issuance price $32.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,223 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ESI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$28.06worst · -12.6%$37.18best · +15.8%
  • now $32.1 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.44 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.62–$34.25
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.06–$37.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,223 windows spanning 2013-10-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−47.0%−47.0%+2.6%
2015-12-23−46.3%−47.3%+0.0%
2020-02-21−46.0%−47.0%+0.0%
3 best
2014-01-31+56.5%−0.8%+56.5%
2014-02-03+55.3%+0.0%+57.7%
2014-02-04+54.6%+0.0%+55.9%

3,223 overlapping windows · 2013-10-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
54%
+1.2%
n=13
Feb
77%
+7.2%
n=13
Mar
23%
−3.8%
n=13
Apr
69%
+6.6%
n=13
May
54%
+3.7%
n=13
Jun
54%
+1.8%
n=13
Jul
62%
−0.2%
n=13
Aug
23%
−2.3%
n=13
Sep
15%
−6.8%
n=13
Oct
50%
−1.1%
n=12
Nov
77%
+8.2%
n=13
Dec
46%
+2.1%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$49$232026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $6.3M — Gliklich Benjamin2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $3.4M — Dorman Carey J.2026-02-20: 3 insider sales, $7.1M — ONEAL E STANLEY …2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $984K — Liebowitz Matthew2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $7.9M — ASHKEN IAN G H2025-09-18: 3 insider sales, $6.3M — Gliklich Benjamin, Capps John Edward, Dorman Carey J.2025-09-17: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Liebowitz Matthew2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $7.6M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $7.9M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $984K2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $16.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Gliklich Benjamin — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed same daydirector Dorman Carey J. — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ONEAL E STANLEY — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ONEAL E STANLEY — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ONEAL E STANLEY — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Liebowitz Matthew — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same daydirector ASHKEN IAN G H — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gliklich Benjamin — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Capps John Edward — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Dorman Carey J. — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Liebowitz Matthew — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-24Gliklich BenjamindirectorSale170,000 @ $37.30$6.3M−12.5% of holding+0.4%−14.9%1,191,078Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-23Dorman Carey J.directorSale97,500 @ $34.87$3.4M−29.1% of holding−2.4%−15.4%237,077Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorSale143,564 @ $35.52$5.1M−49.3% of holding−1.7%−11.6%147,832Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorSale28,539 @ $35.52$1.0M−100.0% of holding−1.7%−11.6%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorSale28,538 @ $35.52$1.0M−100.0% of holding−1.7%−11.6%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Liebowitz MatthewofficerSale37,000 @ $26.60$984K−24.0% of holding+4.9%+58.9%117,393Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-05ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorSale292,000 @ $27.00$7.9M−48.8% of holding−3.2%+54.0%306,880Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-18Gliklich BenjamindirectorSale117,637 @ $26.56$3.1M−12.0% of holding−5.8%+16.9%864,521Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-18Capps John EdwardofficerSale77,674 @ $26.77$2.1M−11.3% of holding−5.8%+16.9%609,790Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-18Dorman Carey J.directorSale40,725 @ $26.66$1.1M−15.9% of holding−5.8%+16.9%214,837Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17Liebowitz MatthewofficerSale50,000 @ $26.55$1.3M−46.6% of holding−4.2%+20.7%57,353Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-19FRANKLIN MARTIN EdirectorSale1,609,100 @ $26.10$42.0M−23.4% of holding−20.8%−13.7%5,280,413Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-19FRANKLIN MARTIN EdirectorSale390,900 @ $26.10$10.2M−78.2% of holding−20.8%−13.7%109,100Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

287 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-04Fraser Christopher T.directorOption exercise6,53967,312Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04Fraser Christopher T.directorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04Sofronas Susan W.directorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04Filon Elyse NapolidirectorOption exercise6,53930,490Form 4
2026-05-04Filon Elyse NapolidirectorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04Fraser Christopher T.directorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04GOSS MICHAEL FdirectorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04GOSS MICHAEL FdirectorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04Filon Elyse NapolidirectorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04Filon Elyse NapolidirectorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04Filon Elyse NapolidirectorOption exercise6,53930,490Form 4
2026-05-04GOSS MICHAEL FdirectorOption exercise6,53930,490Form 4
2026-05-04Fraser Christopher T.directorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04GOSS MICHAEL FdirectorOption exercise6,53930,490Form 4
2026-05-04GOSS MICHAEL FdirectorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04GOSS MICHAEL FdirectorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorOption exercise6,5396,539Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorOther acquisition6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorOther acquisition6,53919,949Form 4
2026-05-04ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorOption exercise6,5396,539Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorOther acquisition6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorOther acquisition6,53919,949Form 4
2026-05-04Fraser Christopher T.directorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04Sofronas Susan W.directorOption exercise6,53912,785Form 4
2026-05-04Sofronas Susan W.directorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04Filon Elyse NapolidirectorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04Sofronas Susan W.directorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04Sofronas Susan W.directorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-05-04ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorOption exercise6,539154,371Form 4
2026-05-04Sofronas Susan W.directorOption exercise6,53912,785Form 4
2026-05-04ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorOption exercise6,539154,371Form 4
2026-05-04ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2026-05-04ONEAL E STANLEYdirectorAward / grant3,2723,272Form 4
2026-02-11Gliklich BenjamindirectorWithheld for tax60,2921,324,308Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.