ESABESAB CorporationIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $66.48 · now $66.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ESAB has typically landed between $56.61 and $76.65 — a range of −14.8% to +15.3% from the issuance price $66.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,100 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-03-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($66.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ESAB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $66.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$56.61worst · -14.8%$76.65best · +15.3%
  • now $66.48 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $67.77 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $63.75–$71.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $56.61–$76.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,100 windows spanning 2022-03-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-19−27.9%−27.9%+0.0%
2026-02-27−27.6%−27.6%+0.0%
2026-02-11−27.2%−27.2%+0.2%
3 best
2022-11-02+31.8%+0.0%+31.8%
2022-10-24+31.1%+0.0%+31.1%
2022-10-20+30.9%+0.0%+30.9%

1,100 overlapping windows · 2022-03-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
75%
+8.5%
n=4
Feb
100%
+5.5%
n=4
Mar
50%
−4.5%
n=4
Apr
40%
−1.3%
n=5
May
60%
+0.1%
n=5
Jun
40%
−0.5%
n=5
Jul
60%
+0.9%
n=5
Aug
40%
−3.8%
n=5
Sep
20%
−7.0%
n=5
Oct
75%
+5.6%
n=4
Nov
75%
+12.4%
n=4
Dec
25%
+1.0%
n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$135$662026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $95K — Jordan Rhonda L2026-02-27: 2 insider sales, $625K — Campion Michele …2026-02-23: 6 insider sales, $7.4M — Kambeyanda Shyam …2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $470K — Johnson Kevin J2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $319K — Vinnakota Rajiv2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $460K — Jordan Rhonda L2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $5K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $460K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $319K2026-02: 9 open-market sales, $8.4M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $95K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Jordan Rhonda L — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Campion Michele — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Campion Michele — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Kambeyanda Shyam — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kambeyanda Shyam — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kambeyanda Shyam — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kambeyanda Shyam — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kambeyanda Shyam — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kambeyanda Shyam — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Johnson Kevin J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Vinnakota Rajiv — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Jordan Rhonda L — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Jordan Rhonda LdirectorSale1,000 @ $95.00$95K−100.0% of holding−17.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Campion MicheleofficerSale2,896 @ $122.63$355K−20.6% of holding−20.0%−52.0%11,193Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Campion MicheleofficerSale2,200 @ $122.63$270K−16.4% of holding−20.0%−52.0%11,193Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-23Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorSale32,286 @ $123.00$4.0M−20.3% of holding−18.2%−47.7%126,982Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorSale12,705 @ $123.72$1.6M−10.0% of holding−18.2%−47.7%114,277Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorSale10,813 @ $125.00$1.4M−9.5% of holding−18.2%−47.7%103,464Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorSale1,700 @ $128.75$219K−1.7% of holding−18.2%−47.7%99,864Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorSale1,300 @ $125.79$164K−1.3% of holding−18.2%−47.7%102,164Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorSale600 @ $127.86$77K−0.6% of holding−18.2%−47.7%101,564Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-06Johnson Kevin JofficerSale3,494 @ $134.62$470K−11.7% of holding−17.7%−48.5%26,404Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-11Vinnakota RajivdirectorSale2,783 @ $114.50$319K−24.1% of holding−0.5%−30.9%8,742Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13Jordan Rhonda LdirectorSale4,067 @ $113.05$460K−100.0% of holding−5.6%+11.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11Cummings MelissadirectorPurchase49 @ $108.81$5Kownership Δ n/a+1.9%+14.3%49Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-31Biebuyck OlivierofficerSale1,440 @ $133.49$192K−8.8% of holding−16.1%−19.7%14,989Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11Jordan Rhonda LdirectorSale1,500 @ $126.42$190K−100.0% of holding−4.0%−24.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Biebuyck OlivierofficerSale1,417 @ $131.15$186K−8.6% of holding−4.8%−28.0%14,989Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

284 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Jordan Rhonda LdirectorOption exercise1,0001,000Form 4
2026-08-07Jordan Rhonda LdirectorOption exercise1,0003,733Form 4
2026-07-15Bhagwakar Ranjana NofficerAward / grant15,77715,777Form 4
2026-07-01Bhagwakar Ranjana NofficerAward / grant9,0489,048Form 4
2026-07-01Bhagwakar Ranjana NofficerAward / grant7,0567,056Form 4
2026-07-01Bhagwakar Ranjana NofficerAward / grant58,05658,056Form 4
2026-06-30LUTZ ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant330330Form 4
2026-06-30RALES MITCHELL PdirectorAward / grant59616,432Form 4
2026-06-30Teirlinck Didier PdirectorAward / grant134134Form 4
2026-06-10Jewell Curtis EofficerAward / grant58,05658,056Form 4
2026-06-10RALES MITCHELL PdirectorAward / grant1,200,0001,200,000Form 4
2026-06-10Jones R. BrentofficerAward / grant145,138145,138Form 4
2026-06-10Campion MicheleofficerAward / grant52,25052,250Form 4
2026-06-10Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorAward / grant580,552580,552Form 4
2026-06-01RALES MITCHELL PdirectorAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2026-06-01RALES MITCHELL PdirectorOther acquisition70,686182,032Form 4
2026-06-01RALES MITCHELL PdirectorOther acquisition3,355,7653,537,797Form 4
2026-06-01Vinnakota RajivdirectorOption exercise6370Form 4
2026-06-01Cummings MelissadirectorOption exercise6370Form 4
2026-06-01RALES MITCHELL PdirectorGift111,346111,346Form 4
2026-06-01Cummings MelissadirectorOption exercise637637Form 4
2026-06-01Vinnakota RajivdirectorOption exercise6379,379Form 4
2026-06-01Cummings MelissadirectorOption exercise637637Form 4
2026-06-01Vinnakota RajivdirectorOption exercise6379,379Form 4
2026-05-12Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorWithheld for tax5,053124,944Form 4
2026-05-12Biebuyck OlivierofficerWithheld for tax1,18420,556Form 4
2026-05-12Campion MicheleofficerWithheld for tax90215,206Form 4
2026-05-12Jewell Curtis EofficerWithheld for tax89419,639Form 4
2026-05-12Jewell Curtis EofficerOption exercise1,8221,822Form 4
2026-05-12Campion MicheleofficerOption exercise1,8351,836Form 4
2026-05-12Biebuyck OlivierofficerOption exercise2,3622,362Form 4
2026-05-12Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorOption exercise10,79610,797Form 4
2026-05-12Campion MicheleofficerOption exercise1,83516,108Form 4
2026-05-12Kambeyanda ShyamdirectorOption exercise10,796129,997Form 4
2026-05-12Campion MicheleofficerOption exercise1,83516,108Form 4
2026-05-12Biebuyck OlivierofficerOption exercise2,36221,740Form 4
2026-05-12Biebuyck OlivierofficerOption exercise2,36221,740Form 4
2026-05-12Jewell Curtis EofficerOption exercise1,82220,533Form 4
2026-05-08RALES MITCHELL PdirectorAward / grant81315,836Form 4
2026-05-08Vinnakota RajivdirectorAward / grant2,6472,647Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.