ESEversource EnergyUtilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $67.86 · now $67.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ES has typically landed between $60.44 and $74.86 — a range of −10.9% to +10.3% from the issuance price $67.86.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($67.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ES has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $67.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$60.44worst · -10.9%$74.86best · +10.3%
  • now $67.86 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $67.9 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $64.79–$71.01
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $60.44–$74.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−34.8%−34.8%+3.3%
2020-02-20−28.1%−28.1%+3.6%
2008-09-11−25.8%−25.8%+4.1%
3 best
2020-03-23+41.4%+0.0%+47.1%
2020-03-20+27.6%−8.9%+34.0%
2008-10-15+23.6%+0.0%+23.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$28.2B
market cap
$4.68
EPS (TTM)
16.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$13.5B
'20'25
Net income$1.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$45M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.87
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $67.86$-6.94$113.99
  • DCF (intrinsic)$1.40
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$105.65
  • Analyst target · range $72.00–$79.00$75.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$67.86

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.0%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.6%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.7%
n=19
May
32%
−0.5%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.1%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.0%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.0%
n=18
Dec
78%
+2.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$75$602026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $107K — Conner Penelope M2026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $107K — Conner Penelope M2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $489K — BUTLER GREGORY B2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Mudge W Robert2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $105K — Conner Penelope M2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $193K — CLEVELAND COTTON M2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $472K — Kim John Y2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $441K — Kim John Y2026-02-19: 2 insider sales, $1.0M — Moreira John M., Kim John Y2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $189K — FORRY LINDA DORCENA …2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $189K — Williams Frederica M2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $365K — BUTLER GREGORY B2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $300K — Hunt James W III2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $119K — Conner Penelope M2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $119K — Conner Penelope M2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $238K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $666K2026-02: 8 open-market sales, $2.5M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $105K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $50K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $489K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $214K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Conner Penelope M — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Conner Penelope M — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer BUTLER GREGORY B — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradeother Mudge W Robert — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Conner Penelope M — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeother CLEVELAND COTTON M — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kim John Y — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kim John Y — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Moreira John M. — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kim John Y — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeother FORRY LINDA DORCENA — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeother FORRY LINDA DORCENA — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeother Williams Frederica M — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer BUTLER GREGORY B — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hunt James W III — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Conner Penelope M — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Conner Penelope M — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Conner Penelope MdirectorSale1,500 @ $71.50$107K−16.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,556Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24Conner Penelope MdirectorSale1,500 @ $71.10$107K−14.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,056Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-04BUTLER GREGORY BofficerSale7,000 @ $69.88$489K−11.1% of holding+8.0%not yet — horizon still open56,179Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Mudge W RobertotherPurchase750 @ $66.48$50K+53.6% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open2,150Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-04Conner Penelope MdirectorSale1,400 @ $75.00$105K−11.9% of holding−2.8%−16.6%10,394Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24CLEVELAND COTTON MotherSale2,581 @ $74.87$193K−3.1% of holding−5.6%−15.3%79,364Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Kim John YdirectorSale6,339 @ $74.49$472K−100.0% of holding−4.9%−15.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Kim John YdirectorSale6,000 @ $73.56$441K−48.6% of holding−2.4%−14.1%6,339Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Moreira John M.officerSale7,800 @ $73.90$576K−15.3% of holding−3.6%−11.9%43,269Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19Kim John YdirectorSale6,000 @ $73.57$441K−32.7% of holding−3.6%−11.9%12,339Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18FORRY LINDA DORCENAotherSale1,600 @ $73.05$117K−11.4% of holding+1.9%−10.0%12,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18FORRY LINDA DORCENAotherSale981 @ $73.07$72K−7.9% of holding+1.9%−10.0%11,506Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Williams Frederica MotherSale2,581 @ $73.32$189K−9.8% of holding+3.8%−11.9%23,725Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-12BUTLER GREGORY BofficerSale5,000 @ $73.08$365K−8.1% of holding−7.2%−15.5%56,674Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07Hunt James W IIIofficerSale4,129 @ $72.77$300K−11.3% of holding−8.9%−14.5%32,415Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-29Conner Penelope MdirectorSale1,850 @ $64.50$119K−20.1% of holding+8.7%+13.2%7,374Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-28Conner Penelope MdirectorSale1,850 @ $64.26$119K−16.7% of holding+8.4%+12.0%9,224Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-20Conner Penelope MdirectorSale2,600 @ $64.00$166K−19.1% of holding−5.1%+3.0%10,988Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-28BUTLER GREGORY BofficerSale12,000 @ $62.68$752K−16.4% of holding+5.3%−5.0%61,268Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-26CLEVELAND COTTON MotherSale7,749 @ $63.50$492K−9.3% of holding+0.5%−4.8%75,838Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Conner Penelope MdirectorSale1,000 @ $63.63$64K−6.9% of holding+0.5%−4.8%13,501Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-21BUTH JAY S.officerSale980 @ $62.99$62K−3.9% of holding+1.2%−0.6%24,374Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-20FORRY LINDA DORCENAotherSale1,000 @ $63.05$63K−8.3% of holding+4.6%+1.0%10,995Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Williams Frederica MotherSale3,092 @ $62.26$193K−12.0% of holding+7.2%+2.7%22,671Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18FORRY LINDA DORCENAotherSale2,092 @ $60.76$127K−14.9% of holding+8.4%+4.2%11,995Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-14BUTH JAY S.officerDiscretionary4070Form 4
2026-03-06NOLAN JOSEPH R JRdirectorGift94,98176,240Form 4
2026-02-19Kim John YdirectorAward / grant3,33918,339Form 4
2026-02-12NOLAN JOSEPH R JRdirectorWithheld for tax40,084171,222Form 4
2026-02-12CHODAK PAUL IIIofficerWithheld for tax5,88641,608Form 4
2026-02-12Moreira John M.officerWithheld for tax5,10551,069Form 4
2026-02-12BUTLER GREGORY BofficerWithheld for tax4,78963,050Form 4
2026-02-12Hunt James W IIIofficerWithheld for tax4,48936,399Form 4
2026-02-12Conner Penelope MdirectorWithheld for tax1,89011,794Form 4
2026-02-12Sgroi SusanofficerWithheld for tax83715,775Form 4
2026-02-12BUTH JAY S.officerWithheld for tax33527,220Form 4
2026-01-27Conner Penelope MdirectorAward / grant3,19410,729Form 4
2026-01-27BUTH JAY S.officerAward / grant1,31127,555Form 4
2026-01-27BUTLER GREGORY BofficerAward / grant5,99167,839Form 4
2026-01-27Conner Penelope MdirectorAward / grant2,95413,684Form 4
2026-01-27CHODAK PAUL IIIofficerAward / grant5,52247,494Form 4
2026-01-27Hunt James W IIIofficerAward / grant3,50640,888Form 4
2026-01-27Moreira John M.officerAward / grant8,42656,174Form 4
2026-01-27NOLAN JOSEPH R JRdirectorAward / grant35,282211,306Form 4
2026-01-27Conner Penelope MdirectorAward / grant3,32214,051Form 4
2026-01-27Moreira John M.officerAward / grant8,93247,748Form 4
2026-01-27Moreira John M.officerAward / grant9,47857,226Form 4
2026-01-27NOLAN JOSEPH R JRdirectorAward / grant36,089176,022Form 4
2026-01-27NOLAN JOSEPH R JRdirectorAward / grant39,686215,708Form 4
2026-01-27CHODAK PAUL IIIofficerAward / grant7,79541,971Form 4
2026-01-27CHODAK PAUL IIIofficerAward / grant6,06748,038Form 4
2026-01-27BUTH JAY S.officerAward / grant1,47527,719Form 4
2026-01-27BUTH JAY S.officerAward / grant1,18826,244Form 4
2026-01-27BUTLER GREGORY BofficerAward / grant6,73968,585Form 4
2026-01-27Hunt James W IIIofficerAward / grant4,34936,527Form 4
2026-01-27Hunt James W IIIofficerAward / grant3,94440,471Form 4
2026-01-27BUTLER GREGORY BofficerAward / grant5,03761,846Form 4
2026-01-27Sgroi SusanofficerAward / grant4,27016,612Form 4
2026-01-16Keane Loretta D.otherAward / grant2,58111,015Form 4
2026-01-16Jones Gregory MotherAward / grant2,58117,057Form 4
2026-01-16CLEVELAND COTTON MotherAward / grant2,58181,945Form 4
2026-01-16Williams Frederica MotherAward / grant2,58126,306Form 4
2026-01-16Long David H.otherAward / grant2,58119,313Form 4
2026-01-16NOVA DANIEL JdirectorAward / grant2,58110,323Form 4
2026-01-16Mudge W RobertotherAward / grant2,5812,581Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousepurchase2025-02-122025-01-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Shelley Moore CapitoSenatesale2024-02-142024-01-19$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2023-10-102023-09-08$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2023-06-242023-06-02$1–15K
Zoe LofgrenHousesale2023-06-062023-05-25$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousepurchase2023-04-172023-03-06$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.