Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.89 · now $23.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EROK has typically landed between $21.44 and $29.21 — a range of −10.3% to +22.3% from the issuance price $23.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
65 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EROK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.88 (+4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.81–$26.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.44–$29.21
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-26 | −17.3% | −17.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-18 | −13.1% | −13.1% | +5.7% |
| 2026-05-22 | −12.6% | −14.6% | +3.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-20 | +27.2% | +0.0% | +27.4% |
| 2026-07-17 | +25.9% | −0.3% | +27.0% |
| 2026-07-16 | +21.2% | −1.7% | +25.2% |
65 overlapping windows · 2026-05-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Wallace Michael Wayne | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $18.50 | $4.6M | ownership Δ n/a | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 250,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Lott Jeff Slaughter | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $18.50 | $4.6M | ownership Δ n/a | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 250,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Nelson James Carl | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $18.50 | $925K | ownership Δ n/a | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Reed Stephanie L | director | Purchase | 13,513 @ $18.50 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,513 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Kumar Raj | director | Purchase | 5,405 @ $18.50 | $100K | ownership Δ n/a | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,405 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Shah Neal H | officer | Award / grant | 47,619 | 832,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Hunt Robert W JR | officer | Award / grant | 27,473 | 357,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Coats Richard Harlan | director | Award / grant | 7,244 | 7,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Kumar Raj | director | Award / grant | 7,824 | 13,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Reed Stephanie L | director | Award / grant | 7,534 | 21,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Nelson James Carl | director | Award / grant | 7,534 | 7,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lott Jeff Slaughter | director | Award / grant | 7,244 | 257,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Wallace Michael Wayne | director | Award / grant | 7,244 | 7,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Shah Neal H | officer | Withheld for tax | 498,470 | 784,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Pipkin Gregory Phillip Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 498,469 | 784,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Hunt Robert W JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 203,491 | 330,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Shah Neal H | officer | Award / grant | 1,283,244 | 1,283,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Pipkin Gregory Phillip Jr. | director | Award / grant | 1,283,244 | 1,283,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Hunt Robert W JR | officer | Award / grant | 533,513 | 533,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Coats Richard Harlan | director | Award / grant | 743,745 | 743,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Coats Richard Harlan | director | Award / grant | 8,770,275 | 8,770,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Coats Richard Harlan | director | Award / grant | 8,770,275 | 8,770,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Coats Richard Harlan | director | Award / grant | 743,745 | 743,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Coats Richard Harlan | director | Award / grant | 8,770,275 | 8,770,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Coats Richard Harlan | director | Award / grant | 743,745 | 743,745 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.