Issued 2026-09-16 at $245.58 · now $245.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ERIE has typically landed between $215.02 and $283.98 — a range of −12.4% to +15.6% from the issuance price $245.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($245.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ERIE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $245.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $245.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $245.15 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $231.23–$259.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $215.02–$283.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −28.6% | −28.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −28.0% | −29.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-18 | −27.7% | −29.8% | +2.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-07-13 | +44.4% | +0.0% | +44.4% |
| 2023-07-12 | +43.1% | +0.0% | +43.1% |
| 2023-07-18 | +40.4% | +0.0% | +41.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$454.33
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$178.07
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$245.58
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Vorsheck Elizabeth A | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $200.00 | $800K | +0.1% of holding | +26.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,004,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Vorsheck Elizabeth A | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $211.00 | $422K | +0.8% of holding | +26.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 266,081 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Vorsheck Elizabeth A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $211.50 | $212K | +0.4% of holding | +26.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,081 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | DaBreo Anthony | officer | Sale | 465 @ $217.10 | $101K | −33.8% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 909 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
296 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cook Cody | officer | Other acquisition | 4 | 1,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Shine Sarah | officer | Other acquisition | 4 | 573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | DaBreo Anthony | officer | Other acquisition | 1 | 921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Datesh LuAnn | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 4,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hagen Jonathan Hirt | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 17,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Edwards William David | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 67 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hagen Thomas B | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 14,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | HARTZ CHARLES SCOTT | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 19,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hudson Brian Arden Sr. | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 3,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Palmer Thomas W | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 15,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | BORNEMAN J RALPH JR | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 20,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | CONNELL EUGENE C | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 3,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Correnti Salvatore | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 2,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cook Cody | officer | Other acquisition | 12 | 1,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Shine Sarah | officer | Other acquisition | 11 | 569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | DaBreo Anthony | officer | Other acquisition | 9 | 921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Pelkowski Julie Marie | officer | Other acquisition | 3 | 675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Smith Douglas Edward | officer | Other acquisition | 3 | 5,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Vorsheck Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 65 | 14,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | BORNEMAN J RALPH JR | director | Other acquisition | 140 | 20,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | HARTZ CHARLES SCOTT | director | Other acquisition | 133 | 19,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Hagen Jonathan Hirt | director | Other acquisition | 117 | 17,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Palmer Thomas W | director | Other acquisition | 108 | 15,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Hagen Thomas B | director | Other acquisition | 100 | 14,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | NECASTRO TIMOTHY G | officer | Other acquisition | 88 | 13,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Datesh LuAnn | director | Other acquisition | 30 | 4,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | CONNELL EUGENE C | director | Other acquisition | 25 | 3,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Hudson Brian Arden Sr. | director | Other acquisition | 25 | 3,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Bolash Brian W. | officer | Other acquisition | 24 | 3,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Correnti Salvatore | director | Other acquisition | 21 | 2,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Srinivasa Parthasarathy | officer | Other acquisition | 19 | 2,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Shine Sarah | officer | Other acquisition | 18 | 2,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Cipriani Marc | officer | Other acquisition | 15 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Pelkowski Julie Marie | officer | Other acquisition | 14 | 2,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Dugan Sean | officer | Other acquisition | 9 | 1,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Cook Cody | officer | Other acquisition | 9 | 1,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Novacek Jorie L | officer | Other acquisition | 7 | 1,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Edwards William David | director | Other acquisition | 2 | 2 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vorsheck Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 100 | 14,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cook Cody | officer | Other acquisition | 5 | 1,147 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| John Fetterman | Senate | purchase | 2026-04-03 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| John Fetterman | Senate | purchase | 2026-04-03 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Virginia Foxx | House | sale | 2017-04-11 | 2017-03-28 | $50–100K |
| Virginia Foxx | House | purchase | 2015-04-03 | 2015-03-26 | $1–15K |
| Virginia Foxx | House | purchase | 2015-04-03 | 2015-03-25 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.