Issued 2026-09-25 at $14.25 · now $14.25 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ERAS has typically landed between $10.26 and $20.14 — a range of −28.0% to +41.3% from the issuance price $14.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,284 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-16 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($14.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ERAS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $14.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.84 (-2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.99–$15.69
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.26–$20.14
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-04-20 | −52.5% | −58.0% | +3.5% |
| 2026-04-21 | −50.4% | −59.3% | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | −50.0% | −59.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-06 | +227.3% | +0.0% | +227.3% |
| 2026-01-05 | +222.1% | +0.0% | +222.1% |
| 2025-12-24 | +206.1% | +0.0% | +206.1% |
1,284 overlapping windows · 2021-07-16 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-11-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study of ERAS-007 as Monotherapy or in Combination With ERAS-601 in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess Naporafenib (ERAS-254) Administered With Trametinib in Patients With NRAS-mutant Melanoma (SEACRAFT-2) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Garner Ebun | officer | Sale | 80,000 @ $16.40 | $1.3M | −76.1% of holding | −49.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Morris Shannon | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $15.04 | $301K | −100.0% of holding | +21.8% | −4.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Garner Ebun | officer | Sale | 120,000 @ $5.59 | $671K | −82.7% of holding | +137.6% | +248.4% | 25,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-21 | Casdin Alexander W. | director | Purchase | 80,000 @ $2.27 | $182K | +16.2% of holding | −13.0% | +6.9% | 573,974 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fuchs Charles S. | director | Award / grant | 1,300,000 | 1,300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Casdin Alexander W. | director | Award / grant | 29,888 | 29,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Hambleton Julie | director | Award / grant | 29,888 | 29,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Multani Pratik S | director | Award / grant | 29,888 | 29,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | LIU JEAN I | director | Award / grant | 29,888 | 29,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Start Valerie Denise Harding | director | Award / grant | 29,888 | 29,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bristol James Arthur | director | Award / grant | 29,888 | 29,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Garner Ebun | officer | Option exercise | 80,000 | 105,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Garner Ebun | officer | Option exercise | 80,000 | 280,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Morris Shannon | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Varney Michael David | director | Award / grant | 96,000 | 96,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Garner Ebun | officer | Award / grant | 560,000 | 560,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Chacko David M. | officer | Award / grant | 640,000 | 640,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Lim Jonathan E | director | Award / grant | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Morris Shannon | officer | Award / grant | 625,000 | 625,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garner Ebun | officer | Option exercise | 120,000 | 145,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Multani Pratik S | director | Award / grant | 19,532 | 19,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Bristol James Arthur | director | Award / grant | 37,762 | 37,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Start Valerie Denise Harding | director | Award / grant | 24,306 | 24,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Casdin Alexander W. | director | Award / grant | 23,872 | 23,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | LIU JEAN I | director | Award / grant | 20,617 | 20,617 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Chacko David M. | officer | Other acquisition | 17,793 | 279,980 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Garner Ebun | officer | Award / grant | 3,902 | 25,076 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Casdin Alexander W. | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Multani Pratik S | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Hambleton Julie | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Bristol James Arthur | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Start Valerie Denise Harding | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Varney Michael David | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | LIU JEAN I | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Multani Pratik S | director | Gift | 6,200 | 166,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Multani Pratik S | director | Gift | 6,200 | 6,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Morris Shannon | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 515,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | Garner Ebun | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Chacko David M. | officer | Award / grant | 800,000 | 800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Lim Jonathan E | director | Award / grant | 2,500,000 | 2,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Garner Ebun | officer | Award / grant | 700,000 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Morris Shannon | officer | Award / grant | 780,000 | 780,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-07 | Garner Ebun | officer | Option exercise | 120,000 | 360,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | LIU JEAN I | director | Award / grant | 24,939 | 24,939 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.