Issued 2026-08-13 at $18.58 · now $17.86 (2026-08-13, −3.9% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, ERAS has typically landed between $13.38 and $26.26 — a range of −28.0% to +41.3% from the issuance price $18.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,254 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-16 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($18.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ERAS has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $18.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.86 (-3.9%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.07 (-2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.66–$20.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.38–$26.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-04-20 | −52.5% | −58.0% | +3.5% |
| 2026-04-21 | −50.4% | −59.3% | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | −50.0% | −59.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-06 | +227.3% | +0.0% | +227.3% |
| 2026-01-05 | +222.1% | +0.0% | +222.1% |
| 2025-12-24 | +206.1% | +0.0% | +206.1% |
1,254 overlapping windows · 2021-07-16 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-11-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study of ERAS-007 as Monotherapy or in Combination With ERAS-601 in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess Naporafenib (ERAS-254) Administered With Trametinib in Patients With NRAS-mutant Melanoma (SEACRAFT-2) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.