EQREquity ResidentialReal Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-14
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.35 · now $65.35 (2026-09-04, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EQR has typically landed between $59.39 and $70.82 — a range of −9.1% to +8.4% from the issuance price $65.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,678 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-06 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EQR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$59.39worst · -9.1%$70.82best · +8.4%
  • now $65.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.43 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $62.91–$67.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $59.39–$70.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,678 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-04. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−40.3%−40.3%+0.0%
2020-02-24−38.6%−39.5%+0.0%
2008-09-26−36.9%−36.9%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-09+53.7%−1.5%+53.7%
2009-07-10+50.5%+0.0%+56.0%
2009-07-08+39.7%−3.9%+39.7%

4,678 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-04 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$25.4B
market cap
$1.98
EPS (TTM)
34.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-27
next earnings
Revenue$3.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr36.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.80
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $65.35$57.15$170.93
  • DCF (intrinsic)$163.08
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$64.99
  • Analyst target · range $66.00–$79.00$72.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-04$65.35

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.1%
n=18
Feb
53%
−1.0%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.4%
n=19
Apr
74%
+3.1%
n=19
May
63%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
37%
+0.5%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
39%
−1.5%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.1%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$70$572026-02-18: 3 insider sales, $260K — Manelis Michael L, Kaufman Ian, Carraway Catherine2026-02-10: 3 insider sales, $655K — Manelis Michael L, Garechana Robert, Carraway Catherine2026-02: 6 open-market sales, $915K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Manelis Michael L — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kaufman Ian — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Carraway Catherine — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Manelis Michael L — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Garechana Robert — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Carraway Catherine — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-18Manelis Michael LofficerSale2,429 @ $63.56$154K−5.3% of holding−2.9%−9.2%43,702Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Kaufman IanofficerSale909 @ $63.56$58K−3.0% of holding−2.9%−9.2%29,444Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Carraway CatherineofficerSale749 @ $63.56$48K−4.5% of holding−2.9%−9.2%15,901Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10Manelis Michael LofficerSale5,765 @ $65.13$375K−11.1% of holding−4.3%−11.7%46,131Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10Garechana RobertofficerSale3,637 @ $65.13$237K−16.3% of holding−4.3%−11.7%18,740Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10Carraway CatherineofficerSale656 @ $65.13$43K−3.5% of holding−4.3%−11.7%18,339Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01Carraway CatherineofficerSale1,007 @ $70.55$71K−7.3% of holding−7.1%−35.2%12,746Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-17Garechana RobertofficerPurchase4 @ $69.81$279+0.0% of holding+1.5%−22.8%14,112Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-02-06Brackenridge AlexanderofficerSale6,770 @ $72.06$488K−7.6% of holding+5.8%−16.3%82,509Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Brackenridge AlexanderofficerSale5,689 @ $72.06$410K−6.0% of holding+5.8%−16.3%89,279Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Manelis Michael LofficerSale4,250 @ $72.09$306K−13.7% of holding+5.8%−16.3%26,781Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Manelis Michael LofficerSale3,404 @ $72.06$245K−9.4% of holding+5.8%−16.3%32,864Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Fenster ScottofficerSale3,385 @ $72.06$244K−8.7% of holding+5.8%−16.3%35,507Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Garechana RobertofficerSale2,601 @ $72.06$187K−15.6% of holding+5.8%−16.3%14,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Fenster ScottofficerSale1,955 @ $72.06$141K−4.8% of holding+5.8%−16.3%38,892Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Manelis Michael LofficerSale1,833 @ $72.06$132K−5.6% of holding+5.8%−16.3%31,031Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Garechana RobertofficerSale1,693 @ $72.06$122K−9.2% of holding+5.8%−16.3%16,709Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Kaufman IanofficerSale642 @ $72.06$46K−2.5% of holding+5.8%−16.3%25,539Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Carraway CatherineofficerSale483 @ $72.06$35K−3.3% of holding+5.8%−16.3%14,115Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Carraway CatherineofficerSale362 @ $72.06$26K−2.6% of holding+5.8%−16.3%13,753Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05STERRETT STEPHEN EdirectorSale2,101 @ $72.21$152K−9.8% of holding+4.7%−14.7%19,395Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18Carr ChrisdirectorAward / grant3,5613,561Form 4
2026-06-18Aman Angela MdirectorAward / grant3,5613,561Form 4
2026-06-18STERRETT STEPHEN EdirectorAward / grant3,27624,551Form 4
2026-06-18NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorAward / grant23,28123,281Form 4
2026-06-18SHAPIRO MARK SdirectorAward / grant3,5613,561Form 4
2026-06-18HABEN MARY KAYdirectorAward / grant3,27613,255Form 4
2026-06-18Hoff AnndirectorAward / grant3,2766,986Form 4
2026-06-18Huque Tahsinul ZiadirectorAward / grant3,5613,561Form 4
2026-06-18Jones Nina PdirectorAward / grant3,2767,182Form 4
2026-06-18NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorAward / grant27,71627,716Form 4
2026-05-14Kaufman IanofficerAward / grant3229,626Form 4
2026-03-02Kaufman IanofficerAward / grant15029,594Form 4
2026-02-09Fenster ScottofficerAward / grant9,17418,438Form 4
2026-02-09McLeod BretofficerAward / grant6,84026,404Form 4
2026-02-09Parrell Mark J.directorAward / grant144,350144,350Form 4
2026-02-09Carraway CatherineofficerAward / grant4,76118,995Form 4
2026-02-09Fenster ScottofficerAward / grant22,17722,177Form 4
2026-02-09Garechana RobertofficerAward / grant23,06523,065Form 4
2026-02-09Kaufman IanofficerAward / grant4,59330,353Form 4
2026-02-09Manelis Michael LofficerAward / grant12,01051,896Form 4
2026-02-09Manelis Michael LofficerAward / grant43,54243,542Form 4
2026-02-09Manelis Michael LofficerAward / grant6,4166,416Form 4
2026-02-09Parrell Mark J.directorAward / grant19,90941,889Form 4
2026-01-16Manelis Michael LofficerAward / grant13,64213,642Form 4
2026-01-16Manelis Michael LofficerAward / grant13,10539,886Form 4
2026-01-16Garechana RobertofficerAward / grant11,47111,471Form 4
2026-01-16Fenster ScottofficerAward / grant11,39311,393Form 4
2026-01-16Garechana RobertofficerAward / grant11,02025,132Form 4
2026-01-16Parrell Mark J.directorAward / grant106,959106,959Form 4
2026-01-16Carraway CatherineofficerAward / grant2,97715,723Form 4
2025-12-30NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift42,50013,964Form 4
2025-11-14Kaufman IanofficerAward / grant3925,760Form 4
2025-09-08NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift1,216424,042Form 4
2025-09-08NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift1,2202,475Form 4
2025-09-08NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift1,0481,427Form 4
2025-09-08NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift1,048425,090Form 4
2025-09-08NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift1,22089,290Form 4
2025-09-08NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift1,2168Form 4
2025-09-08NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift1,22088,070Form 4
2025-09-08NEITHERCUT DAVID JdirectorGift1,2201,224Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-14 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousesale2025-08-202025-07-11$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-09-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.