EQEquillium, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.86 · now $1.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EQ has typically landed between $1.27 and $2.79 — a range of −31.9% to +50.3% from the issuance price $1.86.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,957 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.27worst · -31.9%$2.79best · +50.3%
  • now $1.86 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.73 (-7.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.46–$2
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.27–$2.79
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,957 windows spanning 2018-10-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-05-09−60.7%−60.7%+0.0%
2020-02-24−58.2%−58.2%+0.0%
2018-11-19−57.5%−57.5%+30.6%
3 best
2020-06-12+544.2%−2.6%+544.2%
2025-07-24+417.7%+0.0%+417.7%
2020-06-15+411.1%−9.3%+499.7%

1,957 overlapping windows · 2018-10-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
75%
+5.4%
n=8
Feb
63%
+32.3%
n=8
Mar
38%
−15.4%
n=8
Apr
38%
−11.8%
n=8
May
75%
+8.6%
n=8
Jun
25%
−12.1%
n=8
Jul
50%
+27.1%
n=8
Aug
63%
+46.5%
n=8
Sep
13%
−9.7%
n=8
Oct
29%
−7.1%
n=7
Nov
25%
−8.9%
n=8
Dec
50%
−1.5%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-06-05: 2 insider sales, $134K — Connelly Stephen, Zedelmayer Christine2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $633K — Connelly Stephen2026-05-28: 4 insider sales, $432K — Tom Penny, Zedelmayer Christine …2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $27K — Zedelmayer Christine2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $301K — Zedelmayer Christine2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $362K — Zedelmayer Christine2026-02-19: 2 insider sales, $328K — Zedelmayer Christine …2026-01-08: 1 insider sale, $8K — Tom Penny2025-12-23: 1 insider sale, $150K — Zedelmayer Christine2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $16K — Zedelmayer Christine2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $32K — Zedelmayer Christine2025-11-25: 2 insider sales, $8K — Zedelmayer Christine …2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $8K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $197K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $8K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $328K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $663K2026-05: 5 open-market sales, $459K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $767K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Connelly Stephen — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same dayofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same daydirector Connelly Stephen — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Tom Penny — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Tom Penny — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2025-12-23, filed same dayofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed same dayofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same dayofficer Zedelmayer Christine — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05Connelly StephendirectorSale30,975 @ $2.94$91K−3.9% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open762,025Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale14,584 @ $2.93$43K−18.9% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open62,586Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-04Connelly StephendirectorSale200,000 @ $3.16$633K−20.1% of holding−8.2%not yet — horizon still open793,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28Tom PennyofficerSale65,000 @ $2.95$192K−100.0% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale55,604 @ $2.70$150K−47.0% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open62,786Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale30,208 @ $2.98$90K−32.6% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open62,586Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale200 @ $2.71$542−0.3% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open62,586Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale9,821 @ $2.70$27K−13.6% of holding+18.6%not yet — horizon still open62,586Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale120,312 @ $2.50$301K−65.8% of holding−27.4%not yet — horizon still open62,586Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-09Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale181,219 @ $2.00$362K−74.3% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open62,586Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-19Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale109,375 @ $1.78$195K−36.4% of holding+22.0%+19.9%191,444Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale76,562 @ $1.74$133K−28.6% of holding+22.0%+19.9%191,444Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-08Tom PennyofficerSale6,533 @ $1.29$8K−100.0% of holding+32.1%+145.6%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-23Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale100,000 @ $1.50$150K−52.2% of holding−10.3%+119.4%91,444Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-15Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale11,900 @ $1.31$16K−11.5% of holding−15.1%+135.6%91,444Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale23,804 @ $1.34$32K−18.7% of holding−11.7%+104.2%103,344Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-25Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale7,998 @ $0.95$8K−5.9% of holding+58.0%+197.7%127,148Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25Zedelmayer ChristineofficerSale100 @ $0.98$98−0.1% of holding+58.0%+197.7%135,146Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-23Keyes Jason AdirectorSale10,000 @ $0.65$7K−21.0% of holding+22.3%−44.6%37,720Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

254 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise14,58477,170Form 4
2026-06-05Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise14,58425,521Form 4
2026-05-28Tom PennyofficerOption exercise65,00065,000Form 4
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise48,512118,390Form 4
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise15,62592,794Form 4
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise14,58377,169Form 4
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise7,29269,878Form 4
2026-05-28Pruzanski MarkdirectorAward / grant70,00070,000Form 4
2026-05-28McDermott Charles DouglasdirectorAward / grant70,00070,000Form 4
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise7,29291,146Form 4
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise48,512116,667Form 4
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise14,58340,105Form 4
2026-05-28Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise15,6250Form 4
2026-05-28Tom PennyofficerOption exercise65,0000Form 4
2026-05-28BRADBURY DANIELdirectorAward / grant70,00070,000Form 4
2026-05-28DEMSKI MARTHA JdirectorAward / grant70,00070,000Form 4
2026-05-28Troupin BarbaradirectorAward / grant70,00070,000Form 4
2026-05-27Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise9,82172,407Form 4
2026-05-27Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise9,821165,179Form 4
2026-03-13Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise120,312182,898Form 4
2026-03-13Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise120,31254,688Form 4
2026-03-09Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise75,000243,805Form 4
2026-03-09Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise41,666168,805Form 4
2026-03-09Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise35,695127,139Form 4
2026-03-09Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise35,6950Form 4
2026-03-09Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise75,0000Form 4
2026-03-09Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise41,6660Form 4
2026-02-19Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise109,375300,819Form 4
2026-02-19Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise76,562268,006Form 4
2026-02-19Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise109,37515,625Form 4
2026-02-19Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise76,56298,438Form 4
2026-01-07Tom PennyofficerAward / grant450,000450,000Form 4
2026-01-07Zedelmayer ChristineofficerAward / grant500,000500,000Form 4
2026-01-07Connelly StephendirectorAward / grant1,150,0001,150,000Form 4
2026-01-07Steel Bruce D.directorAward / grant1,750,0001,750,000Form 4
2025-12-23Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise100,000191,444Form 4
2025-12-23Zedelmayer ChristineofficerOption exercise100,0000Form 4
2025-08-29Zedelmayer ChristineofficerAward / grant725,000725,000Form 4
2025-08-29Connelly StephendirectorAward / grant1,025,0001,025,000Form 4
2025-08-29Steel Bruce D.directorAward / grant1,695,0001,695,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.