EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.90 · now $5.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EPSN has typically landed between $5.13 and $6.88 — a range of −13.0% to +16.6% from the issuance price $5.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,713 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-11-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EPSN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.13worst · -13.0%$6.88best · +16.6%
  • now $5.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.91 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.56–$6.26
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.13–$6.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,713 windows spanning 2007-11-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-25−82.9%−82.9%+0.0%
2008-09-23−80.3%−80.3%+0.0%
2008-09-24−80.3%−80.3%+0.0%
3 best
2008-05-06+127.5%+0.0%+127.5%
2008-05-07+127.0%+0.0%+127.5%
2008-05-05+114.8%−3.5%+114.8%

4,713 overlapping windows · 2007-11-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Feb
63%
+4.5%
n=19
Mar
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Apr
68%
+8.2%
n=19
May
26%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
53%
+4.3%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.2%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Sep
37%
−5.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.1%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.7%
n=18
Dec
53%
+8.5%
n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$42026-08-24: 1 insider purchase, $120K — Stabell Jason2026-08-21: 1 insider purchase, $27K — Stabell Jason2026-06-24: 2 insider purchases, $116K — Stabell Jason …2026-06-22: 2 insider purchases, $149K — Stabell Jason …2026-03-31: 1 insider purchase, $12K — Stabell Jason2026-03-30: 1 insider sale, $163K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2026-03-30: 1 insider purchase, $75K — Stabell Jason2026-03-27: 1 insider sale, $161K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2026-03-27: 1 insider purchase, $37K — Stabell Jason2026-03-26: 1 insider sale, $138K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2025-12-22: 1 insider purchase, $88K — Stabell Jason2025-12-22: 1 insider sale, $43K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $185K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2025-12-19: 1 insider purchase, $43K — Stabell Jason2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $118K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2025-11-20: 1 insider purchase, $46K — Stabell Jason2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $55K — Stabell Jason2025-09-30: 1 insider purchase, $62K — Williamson Andrew2025-09-29: 1 insider sale, $126K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2025-09-26: 1 insider sale, $129K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2025-09-25: 1 insider sale, $128K — Solas Capital Management, LLC2025-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $34K — Stabell Jason2025-08-18: 2 insider purchases, $107K — Williamson Andrew, Stabell Jason2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $142K2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $62K2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $383K2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $102K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $131K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $347K2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $124K2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $462K2026-06: 4 open-market purchases, $265K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $148K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-03-31, filed same daytenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed same daydirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2026-03-27, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2025-12-22, filed same daytenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-12-22, filed same daytenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2025-12-19, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williamson Andrew — Purchase on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed same daytenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-09-26, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Solas Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2025-09-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Williamson Andrew — Purchase on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Stabell Jason — Purchase on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24Stabell JasondirectorPurchase21,413 @ $5.63$120K+3.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open619,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21Stabell JasondirectorPurchase4,900 @ $5.56$27K+0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open597,939Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-24Stabell JasondirectorPurchase21,800 @ $5.27$115K+3.8% of holding+12.4%not yet — horizon still open593,039Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Stabell JasondirectorPurchase200 @ $5.26$1K+0.0% of holding+12.4%not yet — horizon still open571,239Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22Stabell JasondirectorPurchase18,600 @ $5.34$99K+3.4% of holding+8.2%not yet — horizon still open571,039Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-22Stabell JasondirectorPurchase9,400 @ $5.31$50K+1.7% of holding+8.2%not yet — horizon still open552,439Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-31Stabell JasondirectorPurchase2,000 @ $6.17$12K+0.4% of holding−7.2%not yet — horizon still open543,039Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-30Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale26,135 @ $6.25$163K−0.7% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open3,470,761Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-30Stabell JasondirectorPurchase12,000 @ $6.22$75K+2.4% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open518,765Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-27Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale26,000 @ $6.21$161K−0.7% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open3,496,896Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-27Stabell JasondirectorPurchase6,000 @ $6.20$37K+1.1% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open541,039Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale22,290 @ $6.17$138K−0.6% of holding−8.5%not yet — horizon still open3,522,896Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-22Stabell JasondirectorPurchase19,100 @ $4.59$88K+3.7% of holding+1.2%+9.5%535,039Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-22Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale9,427 @ $4.59$43K−0.3% of holding+1.2%+9.5%3,545,186Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale40,000 @ $4.63$185K−1.1% of holding+2.1%+6.9%3,554,613Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-19Stabell JasondirectorPurchase9,400 @ $4.62$43K+1.9% of holding+2.1%+6.9%515,939Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-18Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale25,000 @ $4.73$118K−0.7% of holding−4.0%+4.9%3,594,613Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-20Stabell JasondirectorPurchase9,700 @ $4.77$46K+2.0% of holding−6.1%+12.8%506,539Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19Stabell JasondirectorPurchase11,500 @ $4.82$55K+2.4% of holding−5.8%+19.9%496,839Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30Williamson AndrewofficerPurchase12,500 @ $4.94$62K+20.8% of holding−9.3%+26.3%72,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-29Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale25,000 @ $5.03$126K−0.7% of holding−8.5%+27.0%3,619,613Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-26Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale25,000 @ $5.17$129K−0.7% of holding−9.1%+29.8%3,644,613Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-25Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale24,427 @ $5.22$128K−0.7% of holding−7.1%+27.2%3,669,613Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19Stabell JasondirectorPurchase6,000 @ $5.71$34K+1.3% of holding−10.4%−15.0%485,339Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18Williamson AndrewofficerPurchase10,000 @ $5.64$56K+20.0% of holding−9.4%−19.0%60,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18Stabell JasondirectorPurchase9,000 @ $5.65$51K+1.9% of holding−9.4%−19.0%479,339Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-27Solas Capital Management, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale74,427 @ $7.48$557K−2.0% of holding−17.9%−47.1%3,694,040Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02Stabell JasondirectorAward / grant18,726549,682Form 4
2026-07-02Williamson AndrewofficerAward / grant2,539191,473Form 4
2026-07-02Williamson AndrewofficerAward / grant7,803199,276Form 4
2026-07-02Stabell JasondirectorAward / grant6,094530,956Form 4
2026-04-01Stabell JasondirectorAward / grant6,097524,862Form 4
2026-04-01Williamson AndrewofficerAward / grant2,540188,934Form 4
2026-03-31Williamson AndrewofficerWithheld for tax10,000186,394Form 4
2026-03-27Maddox Nicola LdirectorWithheld for tax4,17042,212Form 4
2026-01-22Stabell JasondirectorAward / grant166,736506,765Form 4
2026-01-22Clanton Henry N.officerAward / grant49,582176,250Form 4
2026-01-22STEPHENS TRACY BdirectorAward / grant13,59899,335Form 4
2026-01-22LOVOI JOHNdirectorAward / grant13,598122,617Form 4
2026-01-22Maddox Nicola LdirectorAward / grant13,59846,382Form 4
2026-01-22Williamson AndrewofficerAward / grant71,130196,394Form 4
2026-01-22Winn David WdirectorAward / grant13,59870,435Form 4
2026-01-22Stankowski JasondirectorAward / grant13,59858,069Form 4
2026-01-13LOVOI JOHNdirectorAward / grant3,852109,019Form 4
2026-01-13Clanton Henry N.officerAward / grant2,946126,668Form 4
2026-01-13Maddox Nicola LdirectorAward / grant1,37532,784Form 4
2026-01-13Williamson AndrewofficerAward / grant2,541101,857Form 4
2026-01-13Williamson AndrewofficerAward / grant15,092116,949Form 4
2026-01-13Williamson AndrewofficerAward / grant8,315125,264Form 4
2026-01-13Winn David WdirectorAward / grant1,67056,837Form 4
2026-01-13Stabell JasondirectorAward / grant20,007340,029Form 4
2026-01-13Stankowski JasondirectorAward / grant1,67044,471Form 4
2026-01-13STEPHENS TRACY BdirectorAward / grant1,67085,737Form 4
2026-01-13Stabell JasondirectorAward / grant6,098283,867Form 4
2026-01-13Stabell JasondirectorAward / grant36,155320,022Form 4
2025-11-21Lawrence Bryan H.directorAward / grant2,234,8472,869,560Form 4
2025-11-21Lawrence Bryan H.directorAward / grant2,234,8472,869,560Form 4
2025-11-14Vaughn Jack E.directorAward / grant2,1482,148Form 4
2025-11-14Vaughn Jack E.directorAward / grant29,88629,886Form 4
2025-11-14Vaughn Jack E.directorAward / grant2,1482,148Form 4
2025-11-14Vaughn Jack E.directorAward / grant29,88629,886Form 4
2025-11-14Lawrence Bryan H.directorAward / grant1,181,1241,181,124Form 4
2025-11-14Lawrence Bryan H.directorAward / grant2,656,7052,656,705Form 4
2025-11-14Lawrence Bryan H.directorAward / grant634,713634,713Form 4
2025-11-14Lawrence Bryan H.directorAward / grant1,181,1241,181,124Form 4
2025-11-14Lawrence Bryan H.directorAward / grant2,656,7052,656,705Form 4
2025-11-14Lawrence Bryan H.directorAward / grant634,713634,713Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.