EPRTEssential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.79 · now $26.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EPRT has typically landed between $24.12 and $29.58 — a range of −10.0% to +10.4% from the issuance price $26.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,049 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EPRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$24.12worst · -10.0%$29.58best · +10.4%
  • now $26.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.91 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.9–$27.92
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.12–$29.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,049 windows spanning 2018-06-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−71.5%−71.5%+0.0%
2020-02-14−62.8%−62.8%+0.0%
2020-02-13−61.8%−61.8%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-15+54.3%+0.0%+58.7%
2020-05-14+51.3%+0.0%+59.2%
2020-05-13+50.7%+0.0%+63.6%

2,049 overlapping windows · 2018-06-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+3.4%
n=8
Feb
63%
+0.9%
n=8
Mar
50%
−3.0%
n=8
Apr
50%
+3.6%
n=8
May
38%
−1.8%
n=8
Jun
38%
+1.2%
n=8
Jul
89%
+5.5%
n=9
Aug
67%
+2.6%
n=9
Sep
44%
−3.2%
n=9
Oct
63%
+1.3%
n=8
Nov
88%
+6.3%
n=8
Dec
50%
+0.7%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$34$272026-07-24: 1 insider sale, $709K — Jenkins Robert M2026-03-20: 2 insider sales, $818K — Peil A Joseph, Salisbury Robert Webb2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $818K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $709K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Jenkins Robert M — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Peil A Joseph — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Salisbury Robert Webb — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Jenkins Robert MofficerSale22,000 @ $32.22$709K−39.2% of holding−7.5%not yet — horizon still open34,168Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20Peil A JosephofficerSale19,657 @ $32.10$631K−20.4% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open76,525Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-20Salisbury Robert WebbofficerSale5,851 @ $31.88$187K−41.3% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open8,310Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-10Peil A JosephofficerSale13,227 @ $32.96$436K−14.7% of holding−7.2%−18.1%76,590Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-30Mavoides Peter M.directorSale35,493 @ $32.01$1.1M−7.8% of holding−5.3%−29.0%418,267Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-29Mavoides Peter M.directorSale42,632 @ $32.02$1.4M−8.6% of holding−4.8%−26.9%453,760Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Sautel Stephen DdirectorSale12,500 @ $32.54$407K−6.5% of holding+5.0%−11.3%178,785Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-25Sautel Stephen DdirectorSale27,500 @ $32.47$893K−12.6% of holding+5.1%−11.8%191,285Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Sautel Stephen DdirectorSale30,000 @ $31.99$960K−12.1% of holding+4.4%−9.4%218,785Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

93 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Vachris Craig JofficerAward / grant67,47667,476Form 4
2026-09-09Salisbury Robert WebbofficerAward / grant67,47683,324Form 4
2026-09-09Jenkins Robert MofficerAward / grant67,47687,971Form 4
2026-07-14Peil A JosephofficerAward / grant17676,866Form 4
2026-07-14Earnshaw Timothy JofficerAward / grant9571,444Form 4
2026-07-14Mavoides Peter M.directorAward / grant852341,539Form 4
2026-07-14Mavoides Peter M.directorAward / grant1,236340,687Form 4
2026-07-14Jenkins Robert MofficerAward / grant17656,168Form 4
2026-05-13Sautel Stephen DdirectorAward / grant2,9386,775Form 4
2026-05-13DeLucca JoycedirectorAward / grant3,8373,837Form 4
2026-05-13Smallwood Kristin LdirectorAward / grant3,8373,837Form 4
2026-05-13Sivanesan JanakidirectorAward / grant3,8373,837Form 4
2026-05-13Minich Lawrence JdirectorAward / grant3,83731,643Form 4
2026-05-13ESTES SCOTT AdirectorAward / grant3,8373,837Form 4
2026-05-13Neary Heather LeeddirectorAward / grant3,83730,743Form 4
2026-05-13Sautel Stephen DdirectorAward / grant3,8373,837Form 4
2026-04-27Mavoides Peter M.directorGift132,959132,959Form 4
2026-04-27Mavoides Peter M.directorGift132,9590Form 4
2026-04-14Peil A JosephofficerAward / grant16576,690Form 4
2026-04-14Earnshaw Timothy JofficerAward / grant8971,349Form 4
2026-04-14Mavoides Peter M.directorAward / grant1,154338,655Form 4
2026-04-14Mavoides Peter M.directorAward / grant796339,451Form 4
2026-04-14Jenkins Robert MofficerAward / grant16555,992Form 4
2026-03-24Mavoides Peter M.directorGift30,098337,501Form 4
2026-02-20Peil A JosephofficerAward / grant12,67820,495Form 4
2026-02-20Jenkins Robert MofficerAward / grant12,67820,495Form 4
2026-02-20Salisbury Robert WebbofficerAward / grant15,84815,848Form 4
2026-02-20Mavoides Peter M.directorAward / grant63,391115,508Form 4
2026-02-20Earnshaw Timothy JofficerAward / grant5,0719,631Form 4
2026-02-10Mavoides Peter M.directorWithheld for tax103,353633,517Form 4
2026-02-10Jenkins Robert MofficerWithheld for tax8,73855,827Form 4
2026-02-10Peil A JosephofficerWithheld for tax8,73896,182Form 4
2026-02-10Earnshaw Timothy JofficerWithheld for tax3,12871,260Form 4
2026-02-10Jenkins Robert MofficerAward / grant34,16564,565Form 4
2026-02-10Peil A JosephofficerAward / grant34,165104,920Form 4
2026-02-10Mavoides Peter M.directorAward / grant239,180571,934Form 4
2026-02-10Earnshaw Timothy JofficerAward / grant18,44974,388Form 4
2026-02-10Mavoides Peter M.directorAward / grant164,936736,870Form 4
2026-01-20Mavoides Peter M.directorWithheld for tax89,139332,754Form 4
2026-01-20Peil A JosephofficerWithheld for tax6,18370,755Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.