Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.01 · now $57.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EPR has typically landed between $49.78 and $63.90 — a range of −12.7% to +12.1% from the issuance price $57.01.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EPR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $57.01 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $57.67 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.53–$60.82
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $49.78–$63.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −80.0% | −80.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −74.9% | −79.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −73.7% | −79.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +79.4% | +0.0% | +92.0% |
| 2009-07-09 | +74.7% | +0.0% | +74.7% |
| 2020-05-07 | +71.8% | −6.9% | +71.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
70%
+3.0%
n=20
Feb
65%
+0.8%
n=20
Mar
55%
−1.3%
n=20
Apr
65%
+5.5%
n=20
May
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.1%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.9%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.3%
n=20
Oct
65%
+0.6%
n=20
Nov
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Grace Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 4,200 @ $60.57 | $254K | −15.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Sale | 3,403 @ $61.54 | $209K | −100.0% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Mater Tonya L. | officer | Sale | 3,600 @ $61.82 | $223K | −6.4% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Mater Tonya L. | officer | Sale | 3,092 @ $61.76 | $191K | −5.9% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Johnson Gwendolyn Mary | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $62.50 | $63K | −7.6% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,213 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Johnson Gwendolyn Mary | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $60.00 | $60K | −7.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Turvey Paul Robert | officer | Sale | 6,400 @ $58.20 | $372K | −12.2% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Johnson Gwendolyn Mary | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $58.11 | $116K | −12.3% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Peterson Mark Alan | officer | Sale | 8,334 @ $60.00 | $500K | −3.9% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Peterson Mark Alan | officer | Sale | 8,696 @ $57.50 | $500K | −3.9% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,084 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Mater Tonya L. | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $56.50 | $147K | −4.4% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,859 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-14 | Peterson Mark Alan | officer | Sale | 9,091 @ $55.00 | $500K | −3.9% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Mater Tonya L. | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $56.00 | $112K | −3.3% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Moriarty Brian Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $56.44 | $282K | −26.7% of holding | −4.0% | −6.6% | 13,704 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Trimberger Lisa G | director | Sale | 6,633 @ $57.83 | $384K | −50.2% of holding | −7.7% | −6.5% | 6,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Trimberger Lisa G | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $57.38 | $172K | −100.0% of holding | −7.7% | −6.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Zimmerman Gregory E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $53.89 | $404K | −10.2% of holding | +13.4% | +6.4% | 66,294 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Zimmerman Gregory E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $50.07 | $376K | −11.7% of holding | +8.7% | +11.8% | 56,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Zimmerman Gregory E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $52.25 | $392K | −10.5% of holding | −5.5% | −1.2% | 64,251 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Zimmerman Gregory E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $49.21 | $369K | −9.2% of holding | +5.0% | +8.0% | 73,877 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Zimmerman Gregory E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $58.12 | $436K | −8.4% of holding | −17.7% | −7.9% | 81,377 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | Zimmerman Gregory E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $53.35 | $400K | −7.8% of holding | +5.6% | +8.5% | 88,877 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-01 | Zimmerman Gregory E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $54.94 | $412K | −7.2% of holding | −5.8% | −11.7% | 96,377 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-01 | Zimmerman Gregory E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $58.37 | $438K | −6.7% of holding | −7.7% | −23.0% | 103,877 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Sale | 3,796 @ $56.73 | $215K | −100.0% of holding | +2.1% | −23.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Sale | 3,806 @ $53.97 | $205K | −66.7% of holding | +8.8% | −13.7% | 1,902 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-18 | Peterson Mark Alan | officer | Sale | 13,700 @ $51.77 | $709K | −6.6% of holding | +0.1% | −5.3% | 193,788 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-17 | Mater Tonya L. | officer | Sale | 3,120 @ $51.90 | $162K | −6.2% of holding | −0.7% | −4.1% | 46,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Moriarty Brian Andrew | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $51.99 | $130K | −14.0% of holding | −0.7% | −4.1% | 15,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Johnson Gwendolyn Mary | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $54.02 | $211K | −32.2% of holding | +1.5% | −8.2% | 8,216 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
192 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Gift | 3,403 | 3,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Gift | 3,403 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brown William P | director | Award / grant | 655 | 9,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BROWN PETER C | director | Option exercise | 3,518 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BROWN PETER C | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 2,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BROWN PETER C | director | Award / grant | 1,048 | 3,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brown William P | director | Option exercise | 2,729 | 4,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brown William P | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 6,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brown William P | director | Award / grant | 1,965 | 8,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Case John | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 19,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Case John | director | Award / grant | 1,965 | 21,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Connor James B. | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 43,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Connor James B. | director | Award / grant | 1,965 | 45,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Connor James B. | director | Award / grant | 655 | 45,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHANKS VIRGINIA E | director | Option exercise | 6,326 | 5,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHANKS VIRGINIA E | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 8,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHANKS VIRGINIA E | director | Award / grant | 1,965 | 10,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHANKS VIRGINIA E | director | Award / grant | 786 | 10,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Option exercise | 3,403 | 41,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 43,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Award / grant | 1,965 | 45,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Trimberger Lisa G | director | Option exercise | 5,253 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Trimberger Lisa G | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 2,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Trimberger Lisa G | director | Award / grant | 1,965 | 4,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Trimberger Lisa G | director | Award / grant | 655 | 4,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ziegler Caixia | director | Option exercise | 1,510 | 4,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ziegler Caixia | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 6,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ziegler Caixia | director | Award / grant | 1,965 | 8,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Suarez John Peter | director | Option exercise | 1,510 | 3,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Suarez John Peter | director | Award / grant | 2,358 | 5,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Suarez John Peter | director | Award / grant | 1,965 | 7,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brown William P | director | Option exercise | 2,729 | 2,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brown William P | director | Option exercise | 2,729 | 2,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Trimberger Lisa G | director | Option exercise | 5,253 | 11,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Suarez John Peter | director | Option exercise | 1,510 | 1,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHANKS VIRGINIA E | director | Option exercise | 6,326 | 36,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BROWN PETER C | director | Option exercise | 3,518 | 31,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHANKS VIRGINIA E | director | Option exercise | 6,326 | 36,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sterneck Robin Peppe | director | Option exercise | 3,403 | 3,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Suarez John Peter | director | Option exercise | 1,510 | 1,510 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.