Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.63 · now $3.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EPM has typically landed between $3.07 and $4.35 — a range of −15.6% to +19.7% from the issuance price $3.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EPM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.61 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.36–$3.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.07–$4.35
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −61.9% | −61.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −56.8% | −58.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −56.5% | −56.5% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-10 | +58.2% | +0.0% | +58.2% |
| 2007-09-06 | +56.9% | +0.0% | +56.9% |
| 2009-03-09 | +54.1% | +0.0% | +54.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Loyd Kelly William | director | Withheld for tax | 12,300 | 417,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bunch John Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,757 | 179,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Stash Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,163 | 273,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Beatty Kelly | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,897 | 68,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stash Ryan | officer | Disposition | 27,321 | 279,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Loyd Kelly William | director | Disposition | 52,595 | 429,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Beatty Kelly | officer | Disposition | 5,891 | 71,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Bunch John Mark | officer | Disposition | 28,518 | 186,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Bunch John Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,910 | 214,566 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Herlin Robert S | director | Award / grant | 24,214 | 1,836,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | DiPaolo Edward John | director | Award / grant | 24,214 | 338,837 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Dozier William | director | Award / grant | 24,214 | 264,224 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Hargrave Marjorie Anne | director | Award / grant | 24,214 | 117,992 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Bierria Myra C | director | Award / grant | 24,214 | 86,122 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Loyd Kelly William | director | Withheld for tax | 9,649 | 482,123 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Stash Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 53,419 | 306,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Loyd Kelly William | director | Award / grant | 102,834 | 491,772 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Bunch John Mark | officer | Award / grant | 55,759 | 223,476 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Beatty Kelly | officer | Award / grant | 18,922 | 77,630 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Loyd Kelly William | director | Withheld for tax | 10,922 | 388,938 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Stash Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,438 | 253,478 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Bunch John Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,699 | 167,717 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Beatty Kelly | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,414 | 58,708 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Loyd Kelly William | director | Withheld for tax | 18,247 | 399,860 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Stash Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,827 | 258,916 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Bunch John Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,297 | 172,416 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Beatty Kelly | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,280 | 60,122 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Bunch John Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,691 | 175,713 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Beatty Kelly | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,965 | 61,402 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Herlin Robert S | director | Award / grant | 17,483 | 1,812,501 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Dozier William | director | Award / grant | 17,483 | 240,010 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Hargrave Marjorie Anne | director | Award / grant | 17,483 | 93,778 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | DiPaolo Edward John | director | Award / grant | 17,483 | 314,623 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Bierria Myra C | director | Award / grant | 17,483 | 61,908 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.