Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.09 · now $38.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EPD has typically landed between $35.91 and $41.57 — a range of −5.7% to +9.1% from the issuance price $38.09.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EPD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.09 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.61 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.59–$39.64
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.91–$41.57
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −52.8% | −52.8% | +0.9% |
| 2020-02-14 | −50.5% | −50.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −48.8% | −52.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-30 | +39.1% | +0.0% | +39.1% |
| 2008-10-10 | +34.9% | +0.0% | +38.7% |
| 2020-03-18 | +33.2% | +0.0% | +36.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | TEAGUE AJ | director | Purchase | 2,665 @ $37.55 | $100K | +3.6% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,576 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Rutherford John R | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $32.09 | $481K | +9.5% of holding | +6.0% | +8.9% | 173,586 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-30 | Montgomery William C | director | Purchase | 16,000 @ $31.55 | $505K | +13.2% of holding | +1.1% | +2.2% | 136,920 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-29 | Rutherford John R | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $31.35 | $470K | +10.4% of holding | +0.6% | +0.1% | 158,586 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
282 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | WILLIAMS RANDA DUNCAN | director | Withheld for tax | 189,667 | 1,417,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | BACHMANN RICHARD H | director | Withheld for tax | 32,858 | 2,270,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | TEAGUE AJ | director | Withheld for tax | 30,497 | 3,041,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | FOWLER W RANDALL | director | Withheld for tax | 30,497 | 1,762,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | TEAGUE AJ | director | Withheld for tax | 29,513 | 2,994,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | FOWLER W RANDALL | director | Withheld for tax | 29,513 | 1,715,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | FOWLER W RANDALL | director | Withheld for tax | 27,054 | 1,804,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | TEAGUE AJ | director | Withheld for tax | 27,054 | 3,083,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | FOWLER W RANDALL | director | Withheld for tax | 26,070 | 1,670,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | TEAGUE AJ | director | Withheld for tax | 26,070 | 2,949,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Bacon Graham W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,838 | 651,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Weitzel Harry | director | Withheld for tax | 9,543 | 302,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Boss Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,543 | 336,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Bacon Graham W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,346 | 636,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Weitzel Harry | director | Withheld for tax | 9,346 | 288,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Nelly Christian M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,100 | 294,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Boss Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,100 | 321,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Nelly Christian M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,953 | 308,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Bacon Graham W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,854 | 665,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Weitzel Harry | director | Withheld for tax | 8,608 | 273,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Nelly Christian M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,362 | 280,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Boss Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,362 | 307,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Boss Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,136 | 349,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Weitzel Harry | director | Withheld for tax | 8,067 | 315,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Nelly Christian M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,634 | 320,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Bacon Graham W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,379 | 676,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Hanley Michael C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,935 | 147,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Hanley Michael C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,690 | 153,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Hanley Michael C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,444 | 141,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Hanley Michael C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,198 | 158,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | FOWLER W RANDALL | director | Option exercise | 68,750 | 206,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | BACHMANN RICHARD H | director | Option exercise | 83,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Boss Daniel | officer | Option exercise | 24,250 | 48,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Bacon Graham W. | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | WILLIAMS RANDA DUNCAN | director | Option exercise | 482,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | TEAGUE AJ | director | Option exercise | 66,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Bacon Graham W. | officer | Option exercise | 23,750 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Weitzel Harry | director | Option exercise | 21,875 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Nelly Christian M. | officer | Option exercise | 22,750 | 45,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Weitzel Harry | director | Option exercise | 23,750 | 23,750 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.