Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.84 · now $35.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EPAC has typically landed between $31.21 and $41.02 — a range of −12.9% to +14.5% from the issuance price $35.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EPAC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $35.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.38 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.5–$38.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.21–$41.02
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-05 | −53.6% | −53.6% | +2.8% |
| 2009-02-06 | −53.1% | −54.8% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-09 | −50.9% | −53.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-09-27 | +57.9% | +0.0% | +57.9% |
| 2022-09-26 | +56.6% | −0.4% | +56.6% |
| 2009-03-11 | +52.7% | −2.4% | +52.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Cunningham Danny L | director | Sale | 2,930 @ $34.35 | $101K | −10.9% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,030 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Ferland E James Jr | director | Sale | 2,930 @ $34.35 | $101K | −2.9% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Sternlieb Paul | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $44.00 | $119K | −0.8% of holding | −9.9% | −23.1% | 328,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Ferland E James Jr | director | Sale | 4,224 @ $40.99 | $173K | −4.3% of holding | +1.3% | −5.2% | 94,136 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Cunningham Danny L | director | Option exercise | 2,930 | 26,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Ferland E James Jr | director | Option exercise | 2,930 | 102,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Cunningham Danny L | director | Option exercise | 2,930 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Ferland E James Jr | director | Option exercise | 2,930 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Dawson Patrick James | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,088 | 4,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | MINELLA LYNN C | director | Award / grant | 3,134 | 16,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Clarkson J. Palmer | director | Award / grant | 3,134 | 38,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Simmons Sidney S. II | director | Award / grant | 3,134 | 32,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Holder Richard D | director | Award / grant | 3,134 | 20,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Ferland E James Jr | director | Award / grant | 5,545 | 99,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Cunningham Danny L | director | Award / grant | 3,134 | 47,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Healy Colleen | director | Award / grant | 3,134 | 12,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Altavilla Alfredo | director | Withheld for tax | 638 | 32,528 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Dawson Patrick James | officer | Withheld for tax | 83 | 5,790 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Sternlieb Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 5,074 | 411,244 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Kozik Darren Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 708 | 20,726 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Topercer Benjamin James | officer | Withheld for tax | 619 | 53,280 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Chack Eric Theodore | officer | Withheld for tax | 292 | 25,203 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Dawson Patrick James | officer | Withheld for tax | 53 | 5,873 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Sternlieb Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 6,345 | 416,318 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Topercer Benjamin James | officer | Withheld for tax | 873 | 53,899 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Sternlieb Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 53,186 | 422,663 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Topercer Benjamin James | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,877 | 54,772 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Sternlieb Paul | director | Award / grant | 113,159 | 475,849 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Dawson Patrick James | officer | Award / grant | 530 | 5,926 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Chack Eric Theodore | officer | Award / grant | 3,829 | 25,495 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Kozik Darren Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 6,774 | 21,434 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Popp Noah Nathaniel | officer | Award / grant | 3,240 | 5,829 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Topercer Benjamin James | officer | Award / grant | 10,374 | 59,649 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Topercer Benjamin James | officer | Award / grant | 5,302 | 49,275 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Sternlieb Paul | director | Award / grant | 42,413 | 362,690 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Sternlieb Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 8,065 | 320,277 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Topercer Benjamin James | officer | Withheld for tax | 954 | 43,973 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Dawson Patrick James | officer | Withheld for tax | 46 | 5,396 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | Cunningham Danny L | director | Award / grant | 39 | 44,181 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | Simmons Sidney S. II | director | Award / grant | 28 | 29,574 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | Altmaier Judy L | director | Award / grant | 13 | 17,257 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | Holder Richard D | director | Award / grant | 13 | 17,257 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | MINELLA LYNN C | director | Award / grant | 10 | 13,523 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | Clarkson J. Palmer | director | Award / grant | 8 | 8,963 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.