EPEmpire Petroleum Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.50 · now $2.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EP has typically landed between $1.86 and $3.30 — a range of −25.4% to +32.0% from the issuance price $2.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,005 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.86worst · -25.4%$3.3best · +32.0%
  • now $2.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.45 (-2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.2–$2.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.86–$3.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,005 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2010-10-08−77.3%−77.3%+0.0%
2008-10-20−75.0%−75.0%+4.8%
2008-10-22−75.0%−75.0%+4.8%
3 best
2013-12-20+1020.0%+0.0%+1020.0%
2013-12-16+1020.0%+0.0%+1020.0%
2013-11-25+700.0%−28.6%+700.0%

3,005 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+33.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
+15.8%
n=19
Mar
47%
+26.2%
n=19
Apr
37%
−0.2%
n=19
May
42%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
47%
+2.9%
n=19
Jul
26%
−4.5%
n=19
Aug
47%
+5.5%
n=19
Sep
26%
+7.6%
n=19
Oct
33%
+2.2%
n=18
Nov
33%
−8.3%
n=18
Dec
39%
−5.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$22026-09-11: 1 insider purchase, $14K — Matschke Mason H.2026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $10K — Watson Matthew E.2026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $5K — Watson Matthew E.2026-05-29: 1 insider purchase, $20K — Matschke Mason H.2026-01-02: 1 insider purchase, $3K — Mulacek Phil E2025-12-31: 2 insider purchases, $17K — Mulacek Phil E …2025-12-30: 1 insider purchase, $252 — Mulacek Phil E2025-12-29: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Mulacek Phil E2025-12-02: 1 insider purchase, $22K — Mulacek Phil E2025-11-28: 1 insider purchase, $5K — Mulacek Phil E2025-11-26: 1 insider purchase, $4K — Mulacek Phil E2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Marchive Benjamin J. II2025-11-05: 2 insider purchases, $1.6M — Mulacek Phil E …2025-11-05: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — Morrisett Michael R. …2025-10-22: 1 insider purchase, $15K — Mulacek Phil E2025-10-20: 1 insider purchase, $29K — Mulacek Phil E2025-09-17: 1 insider purchase, $83K — Mulacek Phil E2025-09-16: 1 insider purchase, $27K — Mulacek Phil E2025-09-15: 1 insider purchase, $38K — Mulacek Phil E2025-09-12: 1 insider purchase, $24K — Mulacek Phil E2025-09-11: 1 insider purchase, $12K — Mulacek Phil E2025-09-10: 1 insider purchase, $29K — Mulacek Phil E2025-09-08: 1 insider sale, $15K — Watson Matthew E.2025-09-04: 3 insider sales, $8K — Watson Matthew E. …2025-09: 6 open-market purchases, $214K2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $23K2025-10: 2 open-market purchases, $44K2025-11: 5 open-market purchases, $1.6M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $1.6M2025-12: 5 open-market purchases, $55K2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $3K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $20K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $14K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $16K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Matschke Mason H. — Purchase on 2026-09-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Watson Matthew E. — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Watson Matthew E. — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Matschke Mason H. — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-12-31, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-12-31, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-12-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-12-02, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Marchive Benjamin J. II — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Morrisett Michael R. — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Morrisett Michael R. — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-10-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-10-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-09-17, filed same daydirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mulacek Phil E — Purchase on 2025-09-10, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Watson Matthew E. — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Watson Matthew E. — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Watson Matthew E. — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Watson Matthew E. — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Matschke Mason H.directorPurchase5,777 @ $2.38$14K+1.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open442,302Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-08Watson Matthew E.officerSale3,288 @ $3.13$10K−19.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-04Watson Matthew E.officerSale1,712 @ $3.12$5K−9.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open17,288Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-29Matschke Mason H.directorPurchase7,777 @ $2.54$20K+1.9% of holding+6.5%not yet — horizon still open426,525Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase1,068 @ $3.00$3K+0.0% of holding−1.3%−20.9%6,173,732Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-31Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $3.00$15K+0.1% of holding−5.6%−25.2%6,171,932Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-31Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase732 @ $2.95$2K+0.0% of holding−5.6%−25.2%6,172,664Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-30Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase84 @ $3.00$252+0.0% of holding−0.1%−20.0%6,166,932Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-29Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase5,367 @ $3.00$16K+0.1% of holding−7.5%−19.8%6,166,848Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase7,223 @ $3.00$22K+0.1% of holding−0.2%−21.0%6,161,481Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-28Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase1,743 @ $3.00$5K+0.0% of holding−0.8%−24.1%6,154,258Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-26Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase1,316 @ $3.00$4K+0.0% of holding+0.2%−20.9%6,152,515Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-18Marchive Benjamin J. IIdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $3.14$6K+3.3% of holding−3.4%−30.3%63,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase589,100 @ $1.52$895Kownership Δ n/a−2.5%−25.5%589,100Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-05Morrisett Michael R.directorSale589,100 @ $1.52$895K−100.0% of holding−2.5%−25.5%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-05Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase187,084 @ $3.77$705K+3.5% of holding−2.5%−25.5%5,562,099Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-05Morrisett Michael R.directorSale187,084 @ $3.77$705K−35.1% of holding−2.5%−25.5%346,088Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-22Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $3.75$15K+0.1% of holding−23.7%−34.2%5,375,015Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-20Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase8,190 @ $3.58$29K+0.2% of holding−12.0%−28.3%5,371,015Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-17Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase20,609 @ $4.04$83K+0.4% of holding−13.6%−23.1%5,362,825Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-16Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase6,689 @ $4.03$27K+0.1% of holding−5.9%−29.0%5,342,216Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase9,648 @ $3.98$38K+0.2% of holding−7.5%−27.4%5,335,527Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-12Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $4.08$24K+0.1% of holding−1.9%−27.2%5,325,879Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-11Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase2,971 @ $4.10$12K+0.1% of holding−10.7%−28.4%5,319,879Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-10Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase7,012 @ $4.09$29K+0.1% of holding−1.5%−26.9%5,316,908Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-08Watson Matthew E.officerSale3,377 @ $4.51$15K−25.2% of holding−13.8%−38.9%10,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-04Watson Matthew E.officerSale1,057 @ $4.87$5K−7.3% of holding−15.3%−39.5%13,377Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04Watson Matthew E.officerSale457 @ $4.86$2K−3.0% of holding−15.3%−39.5%14,543Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04Watson Matthew E.officerSale109 @ $4.86$530−0.7% of holding−15.3%−39.5%14,434Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase36,917 @ $4.05$150K+0.7% of holding+25.7%−34.0%5,309,896Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase16,317 @ $4.05$66K+0.3% of holding+33.2%−40.7%5,272,979Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase6,384 @ $4.05$26K+0.1% of holding+40.4%−38.2%5,256,662Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase18,616 @ $4.04$75K+0.4% of holding+35.7%−32.9%5,250,278Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-19Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase4,482 @ $4.00$18K+0.1% of holding+41.9%−39.8%5,231,662Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-04Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase2,324 @ $5.12$12K+0.0% of holding−35.7%−52.7%5,217,104Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-04Mulacek Phil EdirectorPurchase76 @ $5.05$384+0.0% of holding−35.7%−52.7%5,217,180Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Mulacek Phil EdirectorAward / grant——Form 4
2026-09-10Mulacek Phil EdirectorAward / grant——Form 4
2026-07-02Morrisett Michael R.directorOther acquisition16,609362,697Form 4
2026-07-02Energy Evolution Master Fund, Ltd.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition941,33212,209,953Form 4
2026-06-16Vann J KevindirectorAward / grant10,00038,115Form 4
2026-06-16Lewis Andrew LloyddirectorAward / grant10,00053,220Form 4
2026-06-16Marchive Benjamin J. IIdirectorAward / grant10,00073,000Form 4
2026-06-16Matschke Mason H.directorAward / grant10,000436,525Form 4
2026-06-16Mulacek Phil EdirectorAward / grant10,0009,411,581Form 4
2026-06-16Watson Matthew E.officerAward / grant9,00019,000Form 4
2026-06-16Watson Matthew E.officerAward / grant9,0009,000Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise2,089,1009,401,581Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise67,148919,812Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise51,692592,318Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise45,378578,746Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise62044,023Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise43,403—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise540,626—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise533,368—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise7,312,481—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise852,664—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise43,403—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise533,368—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise540,626—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise852,664—Form 4
2026-04-15Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise7,312,481—Form 4
2026-03-31Energy Evolution Master Fund, Ltd.tenPercentOwnerExercise1,855,75713,151,285Form 4
2026-03-31Matschke Mason H.directorOption exercise5,402418,748Form 4
2026-03-31Energy Evolution Master Fund, Ltd.tenPercentOwnerExercise11,295,528—Form 4
2026-03-31Matschke Mason H.directorOption exercise40,8640Form 4
2026-03-31Energy Evolution Master Fund, Ltd.tenPercentOwnerExercise11,295,528—Form 4
2026-03-10Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise1,003,3447,177,076Form 4
2026-03-10Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise——Form 4
2026-03-10Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise——Form 4
2026-02-19Mulacek Phil EdirectorAward / grant——Form 4
2026-02-19Mulacek Phil EdirectorAward / grant——Form 4
2026-01-05Energy Evolution Master Fund, Ltd.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition562,50011,295,528Form 4
2026-01-05Energy Evolution Master Fund, Ltd.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition562,50011,295,528Form 4
2025-11-05Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise589,1006,151,199Form 4
2025-11-05Mulacek Phil EdirectorOption exercise589,1000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.