Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.94 · now $3.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EOSE has typically landed between $2.29 and $6.69 — a range of −42.0% to +69.9% from the issuance price $3.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,559 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EOSE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.79 (-3.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.76–$4.81
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.29–$6.69
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-28 | −65.8% | −65.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | −63.4% | −64.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | −58.6% | −61.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-06-07 | +200.6% | +0.0% | +200.6% |
| 2024-06-06 | +178.3% | −0.7% | +181.2% |
| 2024-06-05 | +176.4% | −2.4% | +176.4% |
1,559 overlapping windows · 2020-06-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Sale | 250,000 @ $3.92 | $980K | −9.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,308,704 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-16 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Sale | 43,750 @ $3.92 | $172K | −13.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 280,195 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Song Haiyan | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $3.84 | $19K | +50.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Song Haiyan | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.95 | $40K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Sale | 34,167 @ $4.13 | $141K | −12.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 236,445 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Sale | 110,417 @ $3.36 | $371K | −11.1% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 887,527 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Sale | 29,167 @ $3.36 | $98K | −12.6% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 202,279 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-27 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Sale | 159,154 @ $3.61 | $575K | −7.6% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,947,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Sale | 79,309 @ $4.68 | $371K | −9.3% of holding | −22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 777,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Sale | 35,289 @ $5.86 | $207K | −4.8% of holding | −37.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 697,801 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Silberman Michael W | officer | Sale | 14,998 @ $5.87 | $88K | −4.8% of holding | −37.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,277 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Buczkowski Michelle | officer | Sale | 11,469 @ $5.87 | $67K | −16.2% of holding | −37.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,242 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Sale | 8,823 @ $5.86 | $52K | −4.8% of holding | −37.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,112 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Walters Marian | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $9.18 | $275K | −15.9% of holding | −30.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Walters Marian | director | Sale | 22,319 @ $7.20 | $161K | −12.3% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Walters Marian | director | Sale | 7,681 @ $7.07 | $54K | −5.4% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Urban David | director | Purchase | 16,250 @ $6.16 | $100K | +35.2% of holding | −25.5% | −43.8% | 62,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Purchase | 23,900 @ $6.58 | $157K | +1.6% of holding | −22.4% | −58.8% | 1,487,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $5.75 | $345K | +4.3% of holding | −10.9% | −57.8% | 1,463,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | DIMITRIEF ALEXANDER | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $6.04 | $91K | +6.8% of holding | −10.9% | −57.8% | 235,221 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $16.04 | $802K | −7.0% of holding | −31.3% | −86.7% | 662,512 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-23 | Silberman Michael W | officer | Sale | 41,667 @ $17.74 | $739K | −12.8% of holding | −32.6% | −86.7% | 283,279 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Stidolph Russell Monoki | director | Sale | 235,367 @ $14.89 | $3.5M | −39.2% of holding | −10.3% | −67.4% | 364,355 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Stidolph Russell Monoki | director | Sale | 29,999 @ $15.36 | $461K | −1.4% of holding | −10.3% | −67.4% | 2,123,273 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Stidolph Russell Monoki | director | Sale | 768 @ $14.80 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | −10.3% | −67.4% | 364,355 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Stidolph Russell Monoki | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $14.99 | $7.5M | −18.8% of holding | −7.6% | −66.3% | 2,153,272 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Bornstein Jeffrey S | director | Sale | 32,328 @ $15.05 | $487K | −21.8% of holding | −7.6% | −66.3% | 115,759 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Walters Marian | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $15.81 | $791K | −27.0% of holding | −10.6% | −65.7% | 135,334 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Bornstein Jeffrey S | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $15.75 | $126K | −100.0% of holding | −10.6% | −65.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.25 | $145K | −10.9% of holding | +95.4% | −11.7% | 164,290 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-08 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Sale | 20,501 @ $6.98 | $143K | −10.0% of holding | +95.4% | −11.7% | 184,290 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-03 | Walters Marian | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $7.90 | $395K | −27.2% of holding | +58.0% | −18.3% | 133,794 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | DIMITRIEF ALEXANDER | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $6.00 | $270K | −17.0% of holding | +20.7% | +122.2% | 219,452 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Sale | 166,667 @ $5.94 | $990K | −10.6% of holding | +17.7% | +169.8% | 1,403,226 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-29 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Sale | 99,375 @ $5.94 | $590K | −14.0% of holding | +17.7% | +169.8% | 612,512 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-29 | Silberman Michael W | officer | Sale | 65,625 @ $5.94 | $390K | −21.4% of holding | +17.7% | +169.8% | 241,612 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-29 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Sale | 17,500 @ $5.94 | $104K | −11.4% of holding | +17.7% | +169.8% | 136,457 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-08 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Sale | 127,152 @ $4.92 | $626K | −9.3% of holding | +32.9% | +183.2% | 1,236,560 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-08 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Sale | 47,254 @ $4.92 | $232K | −8.8% of holding | +32.9% | +183.2% | 491,054 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-07 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Sale | 24,124 @ $5.21 | $126K | −4.3% of holding | +25.2% | +149.9% | 538,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Sale | 270,384 @ $6.86 | $1.9M | −19.6% of holding | −37.1% | +84.0% | 1,109,409 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Sale | 152,856 @ $6.86 | $1.0M | −27.5% of holding | −37.1% | +84.0% | 403,815 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Silberman Michael W | officer | Sale | 100,943 @ $6.86 | $692K | −38.5% of holding | −37.1% | +84.0% | 161,404 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Sale | 36,173 @ $6.86 | $248K | −27.4% of holding | −37.1% | +84.0% | 95,624 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Option exercise | 87,500 | 323,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Option exercise | 87,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 2,558,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Option exercise | 68,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Option exercise | 68,333 | 270,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Award / grant | 611,406 | 611,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Award / grant | 65,044 | 65,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Lagi Alessandro | officer | Award / grant | 195,130 | 195,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Buczkowski Michelle | officer | Award / grant | 195,130 | 195,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Cerberus GP Manager LLC | director | Award / grant | 20,017,772 | 20,017,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Cerberus GP Manager LLC | director | Award / grant | 20,017,772 | 20,017,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Cerberus GP Manager LLC | director | Award / grant | 20,017,772 | 20,017,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Cerberus GP Manager LLC | director | Award / grant | 20,017,772 | 20,017,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Cerberus GP Manager LLC | director | Award / grant | 20,017,772 | 20,017,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Option exercise | 333,334 | 333,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Option exercise | 58,334 | 58,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Puri Sumeet | officer | Option exercise | 58,334 | 231,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Option exercise | 220,834 | 220,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Option exercise | 220,834 | 997,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Option exercise | 333,334 | 2,106,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Nigro Joseph | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 5,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Walters Marian | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 5,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | DIMITRIEF ALEXANDER | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 5,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mastrangelo Joe | director | Option exercise | 111,118 | 2,058,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | DIMITRIEF ALEXANDER | director | Option exercise | 17,897 | 269,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Option exercise | 16,944 | 904,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Urban David | director | Option exercise | 12,185 | 97,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Walters Marian | director | Option exercise | 11,407 | 171,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Bornstein Jeffrey S | director | Option exercise | 9,558 | 143,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Nigro Joseph | director | Option exercise | 2,773 | 41,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Buczkowski Michelle | officer | Option exercise | 2,585 | 61,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Demby Claude | director | Option exercise | 1,825 | 157,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | DIMITRIEF ALEXANDER | director | Option exercise | 1,377 | 11,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Buczkowski Michelle | officer | Option exercise | 2,585 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Bornstein Jeffrey S | director | Option exercise | 4,194 | 4,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Bornstein Jeffrey S | director | Option exercise | 9,558 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Option exercise | 7,435 | 7,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Kroeker Nathan | officer | Option exercise | 16,944 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Demby Claude | director | Option exercise | 801 | 801 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.