EOLS · TickerCove

EOLSEvolus, Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.99 · now $7.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EOLS has typically landed between $6.08 and $10.45 — a range of −24.0% to +30.7% from the issuance price $7.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,140 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-02-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.99 · 76% of range

$3.94 low$9.3 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 24.3%

−24.0%worst (p90)+30.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where EOLS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.99 (+0.0%)
typical $7.95 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $6.98–$8.92
90% range $6.08–$10.45

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,140 windows spanning 2018-02-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−65.3%	−66.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−63.5%	−65.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−63.1%	−64.5%	+5.4%
3 best
2018-05-04	+363.7%	+0.0%	+363.7%
2018-05-07	+339.9%	+0.0%	+339.9%
2018-05-03	+307.6%	−2.7%	+307.6%

2,140 overlapping windows · 2018-02-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

75%

+24.1%

n=8

Feb

63%

+18.6%

n=8

Mar

22%

−10.7%

n=9

Apr

44%

−3.6%

n=9

May

78%

+30.3%

n=9

Jun

67%

+1.6%

n=9

Jul

44%

−2.4%

n=9

Aug

44%

+9.9%

n=9

Sep

22%

−13.0%

n=9

Oct

63%

−5.3%

n=8

Nov

50%

−1.7%

n=8

Dec

38%

−4.7%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Sale	105,108 @ $9.04	$950K	−17.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	499,592	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-20	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Sale	13,669 @ $4.75	$65K	−2.2% of holding	−2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	604,700	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-20	Avelar Rui	officer	Sale	3,119 @ $4.75	$15K	−0.7% of holding	−2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	427,423	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Sale	116,720 @ $4.89	$571K	−15.9% of holding	−12.6%	+49.7%	618,369	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Avelar Rui	officer	Sale	29,996 @ $4.89	$147K	−6.5% of holding	−12.6%	+49.7%	430,542	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-22	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Sale	10,539 @ $7.15	$75K	−2.9% of holding	−32.2%	−8.3%	354,388	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-12-22	Avelar Rui	officer	Sale	2,261 @ $7.15	$16K	−0.6% of holding	−32.2%	−8.3%	356,821	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-08-22	Yamagishi-Dressler Tomoko	officer	Sale	5,722 @ $7.51	$43K	−6.0% of holding	−22.5%	−51.1%	89,949	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Stewart Brady	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $6.82	$204K	+51.2% of holding	−5.7%	−41.5%	88,629	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-09	White Albert G III	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $9.45	$189K	+65.8% of holding	−3.8%	−42.4%	50,378	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13	Beaver Sandra	director	Sale	6,494 @ $10.02	$65K	−3.7% of holding	−2.4%	−48.1%	167,089	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Sale	15,787 @ $9.87	$156K	−3.1% of holding	−0.5%	−46.9%	492,832	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12	Avelar Rui	officer	Sale	3,385 @ $9.87	$33K	−0.9% of holding	−0.5%	−46.9%	359,082	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-27	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Sale	6,251 @ $12.40	$78K	−1.2% of holding	−4.7%	−68.4%	508,619	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Sale	103,376 @ $13.26	$1.4M	−16.7% of holding	−17.8%	−69.1%	514,870	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18	Avelar Rui	officer	Sale	27,904 @ $13.26	$370K	−7.1% of holding	−17.8%	−69.1%	362,467	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18	Beaver Sandra	director	Sale	8,996 @ $13.26	$119K	−4.9% of holding	−17.8%	−69.1%	173,583	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18	Yamagishi-Dressler Tomoko	officer	Sale	4,536 @ $13.26	$60K	−4.5% of holding	−17.8%	−69.1%	95,671	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12	Parschauer Karah Herdman	director	Sale	12,888 @ $12.99	$167K	−28.6% of holding	−24.0%	−62.4%	32,183	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-23	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Sale	10,502 @ $10.85	$114K	−2.0% of holding	+35.4%	−19.7%	522,847	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-23	Avelar Rui	officer	Sale	2,252 @ $10.85	$24K	−0.6% of holding	+35.4%	−19.7%	366,595	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-23	Beaver Sandra	director	Sale	1,586 @ $10.85	$17K	−1.1% of holding	+35.4%	−19.7%	146,916	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-16	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Option exercise	67,489	67,488	Form 4
2026-03-16	Avelar Rui	officer	Option exercise	8,804	460,538	Form 4
2026-03-16	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Option exercise	67,489	735,089	Form 4
2026-03-16	Avelar Rui	officer	Option exercise	8,804	8,802	Form 4
2026-02-17	Stewart Brady	director	Award / grant	45,559	134,188	Form 4
2026-02-17	Malik Vikram	director	Award / grant	45,559	321,109	Form 4
2026-02-17	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Award / grant	313,212	667,600	Form 4
2026-02-17	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Award / grant	626,424	626,424	Form 4
2026-02-17	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Award / grant	457,541	457,541	Form 4
2026-02-17	Mitchell Tatjana	officer	Award / grant	177,471	177,471	Form 4
2026-02-17	White Albert G III	director	Award / grant	45,559	95,937	Form 4
2026-02-17	Mitchell Tatjana	officer	Award / grant	121,489	226,092	Form 4
2026-02-17	Mitchell Tatjana	officer	Award / grant	121,489	121,489	Form 4
2026-02-17	Parschauer Karah Herdman	director	Award / grant	45,559	77,742	Form 4
2026-02-17	GILL DAVID N	director	Award / grant	45,559	86,887	Form 4
2026-02-17	Avelar Rui	officer	Award / grant	94,913	451,734	Form 4
2026-02-17	Avelar Rui	officer	Award / grant	94,913	94,913	Form 4
2026-02-17	Avelar Rui	officer	Award / grant	138,649	138,649	Form 4
2025-09-08	Mitchell Tatjana	officer	Award / grant	143,403	143,403	Form 4
2025-09-08	Mitchell Tatjana	officer	Award / grant	104,603	104,603	Form 4
2025-03-07	Beaver Sandra	director	Award / grant	50,813	50,813	Form 4
2025-03-07	Beaver Sandra	director	Award / grant	35,663	35,663	Form 4
2025-03-07	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Award / grant	135,925	135,925	Form 4
2025-03-07	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Award / grant	190,799	190,799	Form 4
2025-03-07	MOATAZEDI DAVID	director	Award / grant	95,399	618,246	Form 4
2025-03-07	Malik Vikram	director	Award / grant	7,364	253,878	Form 4
2025-03-07	Malik Vikram	director	Award / grant	11,146	11,146	Form 4
2025-03-07	White Albert G III	director	Award / grant	7,364	30,378	Form 4
2025-03-07	White Albert G III	director	Award / grant	11,146	11,146	Form 4
2025-03-07	Yamagishi-Dressler Tomoko	officer	Award / grant	17,832	100,207	Form 4
2025-03-07	Yamagishi-Dressler Tomoko	officer	Award / grant	17,832	17,832	Form 4
2025-03-07	Yamagishi-Dressler Tomoko	officer	Award / grant	25,407	25,407	Form 4
2025-03-07	Parschauer Karah Herdman	director	Award / grant	7,364	45,071	Form 4
2025-03-07	Parschauer Karah Herdman	director	Award / grant	11,146	11,146	Form 4
2025-03-07	Avelar Rui	officer	Award / grant	23,776	390,371	Form 4
2025-03-07	Avelar Rui	officer	Award / grant	23,776	23,776	Form 4
2025-03-07	Avelar Rui	officer	Award / grant	33,875	33,875	Form 4
2025-03-07	Stewart Brady	director	Award / grant	7,364	58,629	Form 4
2025-03-07	Stewart Brady	director	Award / grant	11,146	11,146	Form 4
2025-03-07	BLANK SIMONE	director	Award / grant	7,364	77,111	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i