ENVXEnovix CorporationIndustrials · Electrical Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.92 · now $2.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ENVX has typically landed between $1.91 and $4.39 — a range of −34.5% to +50.4% from the issuance price $2.92.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,410 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-052026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ENVX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.91worst · -34.5%$4.39best · +50.4%
  • now $2.92 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.78 (-4.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.17$3.39
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.91$4.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,410 windows spanning 2021-01-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-12-28−48.6%−48.6%+2.5%
2022-10-04−48.4%−48.4%+0.0%
2022-10-05−45.9%−47.0%+0.0%
3 best
2022-07-15+150.1%+0.0%+150.1%
2022-07-26+141.7%+0.0%+145.2%
2022-07-18+139.8%−2.2%+139.8%

1,410 overlapping windows · 2021-01-052026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
20%
−20.2%
n=5
Feb
67%
−1.6%
n=6
Mar
17%
−0.5%
n=6
Apr
33%
−10.4%
n=6
May
100%
+27.8%
n=6
Jun
67%
+20.1%
n=6
Jul
50%
+5.1%
n=6
Aug
17%
−9.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
−2.7%
n=6
Oct
60%
+6.1%
n=5
Nov
60%
−1.3%
n=5
Dec
40%
−0.5%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$13$32026-01-01: 1 insider sale, $17K — Truong Kristina2025-10-08: 1 insider sale, $242K — Marathe Ajay2025-10-02: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Marathe Ajay2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $756K — Rodgers Thurman J2025-08-28: 2 insider sales, $839K — Rodgers Thurman J, Truong Kristina2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $5K — ATKINS BETSY S2025-08-15: 5 insider sales, $168K — Malchow Joseph Ian, Talluri Rajendra K, ATKINS BETSY S …2025-08: 9 open-market sales, $1.8M2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $17K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Truong Kristina — Sale on 2026-01-01, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Marathe Ajay — Sale on 2025-10-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marathe Ajay — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Rodgers Thurman J — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Rodgers Thurman J — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Truong Kristina — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the tradedirector ATKINS BETSY S — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Malchow Joseph Ian — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 7 days after the tradedirector Talluri Rajendra K — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 7 days after the tradedirector ATKINS BETSY S — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 7 days after the tradedirector Malchow Joseph Ian — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 7 days after the tradedirector Malchow Joseph Ian — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 7 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-01-01Truong KristinaofficerSale2,296 @ $7.31$17K−1.2% of holding−8.3%−33.9%196,748Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-08Marathe AjayofficerSale18,614 @ $13.00$242K−1.8% of holding−28.3%−53.4%1,002,684Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-02Marathe AjayofficerSale120,000 @ $12.01$1.4M−10.5% of holding+1.0%−49.7%1,027,259Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-29Rodgers Thurman JdirectorSale1,259,211 @ $0.60$756K−100.0% of holding+0.1%−53.4%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-28Rodgers Thurman JdirectorSale655,255 @ $1.27$832K−34.2% of holding−2.2%−51.5%1,259,211Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-28Truong KristinaofficerSale4,358 @ $1.62$7K−100.0% of holding−2.2%−51.5%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-18ATKINS BETSY SdirectorSale3,309 @ $1.60$5K−100.0% of holding−10.9%−48.8%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15Malchow Joseph IandirectorSale58,437 @ $1.70$99K−100.0% of holding−15.4%−48.8%0Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-08-15Talluri Rajendra KdirectorSale30,187 @ $1.68$51K−100.0% of holding−15.4%−48.8%0Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-08-15ATKINS BETSY SdirectorSale10,904 @ $1.51$16K−76.7% of holding−15.4%−48.8%3,309Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-08-15Malchow Joseph IandirectorSale628 @ $1.70$1K−100.0% of holding−15.4%−48.8%0Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-08-15Malchow Joseph IandirectorSale185 @ $1.70$315−100.0% of holding−15.4%−48.8%0Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-05-02Reichow GregorydirectorSale8,129 @ $6.57$53K−100.0% of holding+19.7%+67.8%0Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-02-27Talluri Rajendra KdirectorSale300,000 @ $9.35$2.8M−12.8% of holding−12.5%−1.7%2,045,301Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-13Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,014307,500Form 4
2026-09-10Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax253308,514Form 4
2026-09-08Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax936589,103Form 4
2026-08-28Benton Ryan AofficerWithheld for tax10,093903,523Form 4
2026-08-28Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax9,821590,039Form 4
2026-08-28Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax6,626308,767Form 4
2026-08-28Truong KristinaofficerAward / grant12,512315,393Form 4
2026-08-28Chakravarthy ArthiofficerAward / grant18,546599,860Form 4
2026-08-28Benton Ryan AofficerAward / grant19,060913,616Form 4
2026-08-24Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax2,221581,314Form 4
2026-08-13Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,015302,881Form 4
2026-08-10Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax253303,896Form 4
2026-08-08Talluri Rajendra KdirectorWithheld for tax4,3002,958,373Form 4
2026-08-08Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax936583,535Form 4
2026-08-05Vyvoda MichaelofficerWithheld for tax13,579942,131Form 4
2026-08-05Vyvoda MichaelofficerAward / grant23,310955,710Form 4
2026-08-05Vyvoda MichaelofficerAward / grant932,400932,400Form 4
2026-07-24Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax2,221584,471Form 4
2026-07-18Talluri Rajendra KdirectorWithheld for tax17,6512,962,673Form 4
2026-07-14Benton Ryan AofficerWithheld for tax19,824894,556Form 4
2026-07-13Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,015304,149Form 4
2026-07-10Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax253305,164Form 4
2026-07-08Talluri Rajendra KdirectorWithheld for tax13,6582,984,625Form 4
2026-07-08Talluri Rajendra KdirectorWithheld for tax4,3012,980,324Form 4
2026-07-08Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax3,359586,692Form 4
2026-07-08Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,680305,417Form 4
2026-07-08Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax936590,051Form 4
2026-07-05Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax638307,097Form 4
2026-07-01Talluri Rajendra KdirectorWithheld for tax30,7652,998,283Form 4
2026-07-01Talluri Rajendra KdirectorWithheld for tax15,5683,029,048Form 4
2026-07-01Benton Ryan AofficerWithheld for tax10,988914,380Form 4
2026-07-01Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax7,032590,987Form 4
2026-07-01Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax4,395307,735Form 4
2026-07-01Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax3,336598,019Form 4
2026-07-01Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax2,224312,130Form 4
2026-06-24Chakravarthy ArthiofficerWithheld for tax2,221601,355Form 4
2026-06-18Talluri Rajendra KdirectorWithheld for tax17,6503,044,616Form 4
2026-06-13Truong KristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,015314,354Form 4
2026-06-11Rodgers Thurman JdirectorAward / grant29,10434,740Form 4
2026-06-11GUTMANN BERNARDdirectorAward / grant29,10499,063Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.