Issued 2026-09-25 at $11.88 · now $11.88 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ENTA has typically landed between $8.74 and $15.77 — a range of −26.4% to +32.8% from the issuance price $11.88.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,378 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-03-21 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($11.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ENTA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $11.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.88 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.57 (-2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.97–$13.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.74–$15.77
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-25 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-12-09 | −43.1% | −43.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-27 | −42.3% | −42.3% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-11-08 | +90.6% | −0.0% | +90.6% |
| 2013-11-13 | +82.3% | −1.4% | +87.1% |
| 2013-11-11 | +81.3% | +0.0% | +90.7% |
3,378 overlapping windows · 2013-03-21 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2 Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Zelicapavir in Participants Aged ≥28 Days to ≤36 Months of Age Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | Luly Jay R. | director | Sale | 4,743 @ $14.23 | $67K | −0.5% of holding | −5.7% | −30.4% | 858,026 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Or Yat Sun | officer | Sale | 2,390 @ $14.23 | $34K | −0.6% of holding | −5.7% | −30.4% | 371,392 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Kieffer Tara Lynn | officer | Sale | 2,106 @ $14.23 | $30K | −6.4% of holding | −5.7% | −30.4% | 30,620 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Luu Brendan | officer | Sale | 1,394 @ $14.23 | $20K | −3.5% of holding | −5.7% | −30.4% | 38,329 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Sale | 798 @ $14.23 | $11K | −3.5% of holding | −5.7% | −30.4% | 21,792 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Trout Harry R. III | officer | Sale | 542 @ $14.23 | $8K | −3.2% of holding | −5.7% | −30.4% | 16,348 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Capps Kathleen S. | officer | Sale | 323 @ $14.23 | $5K | −3.7% of holding | −5.7% | −30.4% | 8,377 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Trout Harry R. III | officer | Sale | 380 @ $13.96 | $5K | −2.2% of holding | +2.8% | −27.7% | 16,890 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Capps Kathleen S. | officer | Sale | 207 @ $13.96 | $3K | −2.3% of holding | +2.8% | −27.7% | 8,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | Luly Jay R. | director | Purchase | 45,000 @ $5.69 | $256K | +5.6% of holding | +20.2% | +24.6% | 846,638 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | Luly Jay R. | director | Sale | 5,142 @ $8.06 | $41K | −0.6% of holding | −32.8% | −0.2% | 801,638 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Or Yat Sun | officer | Sale | 2,591 @ $8.06 | $21K | −0.7% of holding | −32.8% | −0.2% | 369,109 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | MELLETT PAUL J | officer | Sale | 2,591 @ $8.06 | $21K | −2.7% of holding | −32.8% | −0.2% | 91,710 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Luu Brendan | officer | Sale | 2,283 @ $8.06 | $18K | −6.0% of holding | −32.8% | −0.2% | 36,047 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Kieffer Tara Lynn | officer | Sale | 2,283 @ $8.06 | $18K | −7.2% of holding | −32.8% | −0.2% | 29,305 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Sale | 866 @ $8.06 | $7K | −4.6% of holding | −32.8% | −0.2% | 17,918 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-15 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Sale | 5,375 @ $17.08 | $92K | −19.8% of holding | −20.3% | −75.1% | 21,717 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-07-12 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Sale | 2,271 @ $15.04 | $34K | −9.5% of holding | −18.1% | −73.1% | 21,717 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-11 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Sale | 4,299 @ $15.07 | $65K | −15.2% of holding | −11.9% | −71.0% | 23,988 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-17 | Kieffer Tara Lynn | officer | Sale | 7,266 @ $12.33 | $90K | −18.3% of holding | +20.5% | −59.3% | 32,341 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,467 | 23,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Peterson Kristine | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Hata Yujiro S | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Russell Lesley | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | CARTER BRUCE L A | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Vance Terry | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Luly Jay R. | director | Withheld for tax | 6,155 | 871,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,413 | 25,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Or Yat Sun | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,413 | 374,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kieffer Tara Lynn | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,257 | 33,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Luu Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,257 | 41,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kowalsky Matthew Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,902 | 3,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kieffer Tara Lynn | officer | Award / grant | 4,987 | 37,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Award / grant | 1,650 | 23,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Award / grant | 5,225 | 28,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Luu Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 1,575 | 39,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Luu Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 4,987 | 44,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kowalsky Matthew Paul | officer | Award / grant | 1,318 | 1,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kowalsky Matthew Paul | officer | Award / grant | 4,175 | 5,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kieffer Tara Lynn | officer | Award / grant | 1,575 | 32,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Luly Jay R. | director | Award / grant | 4,800 | 862,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Luly Jay R. | director | Award / grant | 15,200 | 878,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Or Yat Sun | officer | Award / grant | 1,650 | 373,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Or Yat Sun | officer | Award / grant | 5,225 | 378,267 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Luly Jay R. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,885 | 862,769 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Or Yat Sun | officer | Withheld for tax | 753 | 373,782 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kieffer Tara Lynn | officer | Withheld for tax | 753 | 32,726 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Luu Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 498 | 39,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Trout Harry R. III | officer | Withheld for tax | 105 | 17,270 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Capps Kathleen S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 85 | 8,907 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Capps Kathleen S. | officer | Award / grant | 3,163 | 8,992 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Kieffer Tara Lynn | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Trout Harry R. III | officer | Award / grant | 12,925 | 12,925 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Trout Harry R. III | officer | Award / grant | 6,463 | 17,375 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Rottinghaus Scott T. | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Or Yat Sun | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Luu Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Luly Jay R. | director | Award / grant | 310,000 | 310,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Kowalsky Matthew Paul | officer | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.