ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.56 · now $35.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ENPH has typically landed between $25.64 and $47.39 — a range of −27.9% to +33.3% from the issuance price $35.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,603 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-03-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ENPH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$25.64worst · -27.9%$47.39best · +33.3%
  • now $35.56 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.42 (-3.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.89–$38.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.64–$47.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,603 windows spanning 2012-03-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2015-10-15−63.9%−64.3%+0.0%
2015-10-14−62.7%−62.7%+4.4%
2015-10-12−62.2%−62.2%+2.6%
3 best
2017-10-27+130.9%+0.0%+130.9%
2017-10-26+127.3%+0.0%+127.3%
2017-10-18+120.6%+0.0%+120.6%

3,603 overlapping windows · 2012-03-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.7%
n=14
Feb
71%
+17.0%
n=14
Mar
36%
+0.0%
n=14
Apr
33%
−3.8%
n=15
May
67%
+12.9%
n=15
Jun
47%
−1.6%
n=15
Jul
47%
+3.9%
n=15
Aug
47%
+0.2%
n=15
Sep
27%
−1.8%
n=15
Oct
36%
−3.2%
n=14
Nov
57%
+5.7%
n=14
Dec
50%
+11.9%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$72$262026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $61K — MORA RICHARD2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $74K — MORA RICHARD2026-06-12: 1 insider purchase, $54K — Trivedi Shanker2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $45K — MORA RICHARD2026-05-26: 2 insider purchases, $337K — Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan …2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $32K — MORA RICHARD2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $6.0M — Rodgers Thurman J2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $57K — MORA RICHARD2026-02-05: 2 insider purchases, $260K — Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan …2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $198K — Yang Mandy2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $4.4M — Rodgers Thurman J2025-11-10: 1 insider purchase, $153K — Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan2025-10-31: 1 insider purchase, $309K — Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $154K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $309K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $153K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $4.6M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $260K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $57K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $6.0M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $337K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $32K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $54K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $45K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $74K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $61K↑ buys↓ salesdirector MORA RICHARD — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed same daydirector MORA RICHARD — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Trivedi Shanker — Purchase on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector MORA RICHARD — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed same daydirector Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed same daydirector MORA RICHARD — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Rodgers Thurman J — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MORA RICHARD — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan — Purchase on 2026-02-05, filed same daydirector Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan — Purchase on 2026-02-05, filed same dayofficer Yang Mandy — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same daydirector Rodgers Thurman J — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan — Purchase on 2025-11-10, filed same daydirector Kothandaraman Badrinarayanan — Purchase on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14MORA RICHARDdirectorSale1,500 @ $40.36$61K−12.6% of holding−6.8%not yet — horizon still open10,422Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-30MORA RICHARDdirectorSale2,000 @ $36.76$74K−14.4% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open11,922Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12Trivedi ShankerdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $53.91$54Kownership Δ n/a−21.3%not yet — horizon still open1,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-01MORA RICHARDdirectorSale700 @ $64.20$45K−4.8% of holding−25.1%not yet — horizon still open13,922Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-26Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorPurchase4,400 @ $67.37$296K+0.3% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open1,645,032Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-26Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorPurchase600 @ $68.39$41K+0.0% of holding−27.5%not yet — horizon still open1,645,632Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-19MORA RICHARDdirectorSale700 @ $46.39$32K−4.6% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open14,622Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13Rodgers Thurman JdirectorSale137,250 @ $43.61$6.0M−7.9% of holding−32.5%not yet — horizon still open1,597,641Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-10MORA RICHARDdirectorSale1,100 @ $52.05$57K−10.5% of holding−11.5%−37.6%9,370Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorPurchase4,250 @ $52.14$222K+0.3% of holding−13.7%−34.6%1,640,632Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-05Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorPurchase750 @ $51.06$38K+0.0% of holding−13.7%−34.6%1,636,382Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12Yang MandyofficerSale6,000 @ $33.01$198K−8.0% of holding+10.7%+45.5%68,987Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-02Rodgers Thurman JdirectorSale150,000 @ $29.13$4.4M−8.0% of holding+15.4%+123.1%1,733,596Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorPurchase5,000 @ $30.69$153K+0.3% of holding−1.1%+18.3%1,635,632Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-31Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorPurchase10,000 @ $30.93$309K+0.6% of holding−4.5%+11.3%1,630,632Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-06Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorPurchase5,000 @ $30.82$154K+0.3% of holding+29.4%+49.3%1,620,632Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorPurchase4,000 @ $46.35$185K+0.3% of holding−21.5%−46.3%1,598,696Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-10Yang MandyofficerSale1,319 @ $63.32$84K−1.7% of holding−10.6%−56.8%78,524Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07Rodgers Thurman JdirectorSale100,000 @ $61.26$6.1M−5.0% of holding+2.6%−50.4%1,881,760Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-11Trivedi ShankerdirectorAward / grant4,5514,551Form 4
2026-05-13Rodgers Thurman JdirectorAward / grant5,9528,542Form 4
2026-05-13Kortlang Benjamin JohndirectorAward / grant5,95214,059Form 4
2026-05-13GOMO STEVEN JdirectorAward / grant6,42814,359Form 4
2026-05-13Haenggi Jamie ElizabethdirectorAward / grant5,95220,898Form 4
2026-05-13Malchow Joseph IandirectorAward / grant5,95269,912Form 4
2026-05-13MORA RICHARDdirectorAward / grant5,95215,322Form 4
2026-03-10Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax1,32290,335Form 4
2026-03-01Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorWithheld for tax21,365104,115Form 4
2026-03-01Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax11,16291,657Form 4
2026-03-01Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorWithheld for tax7,122125,480Form 4
2026-03-01Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorWithheld for tax5,935132,602Form 4
2026-03-01Erginsoy MaryofficerWithheld for tax5,39830,537Form 4
2026-03-01Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorWithheld for tax4,883138,537Form 4
2026-03-01Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax3,721102,819Form 4
2026-03-01Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax3,023106,540Form 4
2026-03-01Erginsoy MaryofficerWithheld for tax1,79135,935Form 4
2026-03-01Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax1,664109,563Form 4
2026-03-01Erginsoy MaryofficerWithheld for tax98937,726Form 4
2026-03-01Erginsoy MaryofficerWithheld for tax46438,715Form 4
2026-01-29Yang MandyofficerAward / grant21,120111,227Form 4
2026-01-29Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorAward / grant33,000143,420Form 4
2026-01-29Erginsoy MaryofficerAward / grant10,56039,179Form 4
2026-01-22Yang MandyofficerAward / grant21,12090,107Form 4
2026-01-22Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorAward / grant39,600110,420Form 4
2026-01-22Erginsoy MaryofficerAward / grant10,56028,619Form 4
2025-12-10Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax1,31974,987Form 4
2025-09-10Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax1,31976,306Form 4
2025-06-10Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax1,31977,625Form 4
2025-05-15Kortlang Benjamin JohndirectorAward / grant5,1798,107Form 4
2025-05-14MORA RICHARDdirectorAward / grant5,17910,470Form 4
2025-05-14Malchow Joseph IandirectorAward / grant5,17963,960Form 4
2025-05-14Rodgers Thurman JdirectorAward / grant5,1795,721Form 4
2025-05-14Haenggi Jamie ElizabethdirectorAward / grant5,17914,946Form 4
2025-05-14GOMO STEVEN JdirectorAward / grant5,5937,931Form 4
2025-03-01Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorWithheld for tax8,88687,336Form 4
2025-03-01Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorWithheld for tax5,92496,222Form 4
2025-03-01Kothandaraman BadrinarayanandirectorWithheld for tax4,830102,146Form 4
2025-03-01Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax4,52679,843Form 4
2025-03-01Yang MandyofficerWithheld for tax3,01884,369Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-03-122025-02-12$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousepurchase2025-02-122025-01-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-11-082024-10-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-11-082024-10-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-08-072024-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-08-072024-07-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-05-062024-04-26$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.