EMREmerson Electric Co.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $158.23 · now $158.23 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, EMR has typically landed between $140.97 and $178.47 — a range of −10.9% to +12.8% from the issuance price $158.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($158.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EMR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $158.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$140.97worst · -10.9%$178.47best · +12.8%
  • now $158.23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $159.9 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $151.4–$168.41
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $140.97–$178.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.2%−47.2%+0.0%
2020-02-18−42.4%−42.4%+0.9%
2020-02-20−38.8%−42.9%+0.1%
3 best
2020-03-23+36.8%+0.0%+36.8%
2009-03-05+26.7%−1.4%+26.7%
2020-05-07+26.7%−6.1%+26.7%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$82.9B
market cap
$4.33
EPS (TTM)
34.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$18.0B
'20'25
Net income$2.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.68
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $158.23$101.28$191.20
  • DCF (intrinsic)$107.48
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$132.73
  • Analyst target · range $144.00–$185.00$168.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$158.23

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.2%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.2%
n=19
Mar
58%
−0.2%
n=19
Apr
68%
+2.2%
n=19
May
47%
−0.0%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.4%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.8%
n=18
Nov
89%
+5.8%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$164$1232026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Karsanbhai Surendralal Lanca2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Train Michael H.2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Krishnan Ram R.2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $811K — Karsanbhai Surendralal Lanca2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $239K — LEVATICH MATTHEW S2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Piazza Nicholas J.2026-02-05: 2 insider sales, $439K — BLINN MARK A …2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $966K — Karsanbhai Surendralal Lanca2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $966K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $811K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $2.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Karsanbhai Surendralal Lanca — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Train Michael H. — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Krishnan Ram R. — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Karsanbhai Surendralal Lanca — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LEVATICH MATTHEW S — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Piazza Nicholas J. — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BLINN MARK A — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BLINN MARK A — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Karsanbhai Surendralal Lanca — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorSale9,650 @ $161.91$1.6M−3.4% of holding−7.8%not yet — horizon still open271,743Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06Train Michael H.officerSale7,329 @ $158.99$1.2M−3.0% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open238,516Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Krishnan Ram R.directorSale11,500 @ $141.22$1.6M−6.7% of holding−0.1%not yet — horizon still open159,639Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorSale5,700 @ $142.32$811K−2.0% of holding+2.6%−5.4%281,393Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10LEVATICH MATTHEW SdirectorSale1,476 @ $162.16$239K−5.7% of holding−14.2%−10.4%24,349Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09Piazza Nicholas J.officerSale6,703 @ $159.07$1.1M−17.5% of holding−9.9%−8.4%31,664Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05BLINN MARK AdirectorSale1,476 @ $152.79$226K−16.3% of holding−6.2%−9.0%7,555Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-05BLINN MARK AdirectorSale1,400 @ $152.44$213K−13.4% of holding−6.2%−9.0%9,031Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-03Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorSale7,263 @ $133.00$966K−3.6% of holding+5.0%−5.3%196,292Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Train Michael H.officerSale28,305 @ $119.44$3.4M−10.8% of holding+3.2%−7.8%232,669Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorSale16,698 @ $113.33$1.9M−9.2% of holding+6.1%−1.3%164,957Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12LEVATICH MATTHEW SdirectorSale1,867 @ $125.05$233K−7.1% of holding−3.0%+1.3%24,574Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12BLINN MARK AdirectorSale20 @ $125.24$3K−0.2% of holding−3.0%+1.3%9,180Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10BLINN MARK AdirectorSale1,867 @ $125.71$235K−16.9% of holding−4.6%−1.1%9,200Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorSale52,409 @ $130.51$6.8M−35.2% of holding−0.7%−7.2%96,675Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Train Michael H.officerSale21,525 @ $125.96$2.7M−7.6% of holding+0.8%−4.4%262,408Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-03-04Piazza Nicholas J.officerSale2,200 @ $108.50$239K−8.8% of holding+2.0%−14.4%22,754Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-15LEVATICH MATTHEW SdirectorSale1,933 @ $105.58$204K−7.2% of holding+2.6%−12.6%24,965Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-14Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorSale2,344 @ $106.02$249K−1.7% of holding+2.0%−12.5%138,750Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

231 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Piazza Nicholas J.officerWithheld for tax1,45330,316Form 4
2026-08-03Newstead JenniferdirectorAward / grant622622Form 4
2026-08-03Newstead JenniferdirectorAward / grant622622Form 4
2026-04-06Train Michael H.officerWithheld for tax5,286245,711Form 4
2026-03-09Krishnan Ram R.directorGift6,68053,366Form 4
2026-03-09Krishnan Ram R.directorGift6,680171,139Form 4
2026-03-09Krishnan Ram R.directorGift6,68053,366Form 4
2026-03-09Krishnan Ram R.directorGift6,680171,139Form 4
2026-02-09Krishnan Ram R.directorWithheld for tax5,31960,046Form 4
2026-02-05Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorGift5,578287,093Form 4
2026-02-05Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorGift5,578183,172Form 4
2026-02-05Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorGift5,578287,093Form 4
2026-02-05Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorGift5,578183,172Form 4
2026-02-03Lee Lori MdirectorAward / grant1,25115,113Form 4
2026-02-03BLINN MARK AdirectorAward / grant1,25110,431Form 4
2026-02-03BOLTEN JOSHUA B.directorAward / grant1,25131,294Form 4
2026-02-03FLACH GLORIA AdirectorAward / grant1,25120,249Form 4
2026-02-03Turley James SdirectorAward / grant1,25127,458Form 4
2026-02-03LEVATICH MATTHEW SdirectorAward / grant1,25125,825Form 4
2026-02-03BOLTEN JOSHUA B.directorAward / grant1,25131,294Form 4
2026-02-03Craighead Martin SdirectorAward / grant1,25114,867Form 4
2026-02-03McKelvey James Morgan Jr.directorAward / grant1,25116,013Form 4
2026-02-03BUTLER CALVIN JRdirectorAward / grant1,2513,489Form 4
2026-02-03McKelvey James Morgan Jr.directorAward / grant1,25116,013Form 4
2026-02-03BLINN MARK AdirectorAward / grant1,25110,431Form 4
2026-02-03BUTLER CALVIN JRdirectorAward / grant1,2513,489Form 4
2026-02-03FLACH GLORIA AdirectorAward / grant1,25120,249Form 4
2026-02-03Craighead Martin SdirectorAward / grant1,25114,867Form 4
2026-02-03Turley James SdirectorAward / grant1,25127,458Form 4
2026-02-03LEVATICH MATTHEW SdirectorAward / grant1,25125,825Form 4
2026-02-03Lee Lori MdirectorAward / grant1,25115,113Form 4
2026-02-02Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorWithheld for tax4,422188,750Form 4
2026-01-02Tang MichaelofficerWithheld for tax4,57131,439Form 4
2026-01-02Tang MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,15429,285Form 4
2025-12-15Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorGift3,120281,515Form 4
2025-12-15Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorGift3,120193,172Form 4
2025-12-15Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorGift3,120193,172Form 4
2025-12-15Karsanbhai Surendralal LancadirectorGift3,120281,515Form 4
2025-12-10Krishnan Ram R.directorGift39,492164,459Form 4
2025-12-10Krishnan Ram R.directorGift39,49265,365Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-12-092025-11-05$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-09-172023-03-15$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122025-07-14$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.