EMPDEmpery Digital Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.09 · now $3.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EMPD has typically landed between $1.16 and $4.61 — a range of −62.6% to +49.2% from the issuance price $3.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,218 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EMPD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.16worst · -62.6%$4.61best · +49.2%
  • now $3.09 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.58 (-16.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.01–$3.14
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.16–$4.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,218 windows spanning 2021-10-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-11-08−89.5%−89.5%+0.0%
2023-11-09−89.2%−89.2%+1.3%
2023-11-10−88.7%−89.2%+1.7%
3 best
2025-06-16+222.2%−3.4%+222.2%
2025-06-17+221.9%−1.3%+229.0%
2025-06-18+208.0%+0.0%+233.5%

1,218 overlapping windows · 2021-10-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+5.0%
n=5
Feb
0%
−43.7%
n=5
Mar
60%
−8.2%
n=5
Apr
20%
−18.7%
n=5
May
0%
−24.8%
n=5
Jun
40%
−5.1%
n=5
Jul
40%
−4.3%
n=5
Aug
40%
+1.1%
n=5
Sep
40%
−11.0%
n=5
Oct
0%
−27.8%
n=4
Nov
20%
−26.9%
n=5
Dec
0%
−18.1%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$11$32026-09-01: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — Empery Asset Management, LP2026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $2.2M — Empery Asset Management, LP2026-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — Empery Asset Management, LP2026-02-03: 1 insider purchase, $2.6M — ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP2026-02-02: 1 insider purchase, $616K — ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP2026-01-30: 1 insider purchase, $552K — ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP2026-01-29: 1 insider purchase, $937K — ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP2026-01-28: 1 insider purchase, $627K — ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP2026-01: 3 open-market purchases, $2.1M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $3.2M2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $4.1M2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $1.8M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner Empery Asset Management, LP — Purchase on 2026-09-01, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Empery Asset Management, LP — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Empery Asset Management, LP — Purchase on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP — Purchase on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP — Purchase on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP — Purchase on 2026-01-30, filed same daytenPercentOwner ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP — Purchase on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LP — Purchase on 2026-01-28, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Empery Asset Management, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase500,000 @ $3.59$1.8M+11.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,930,345Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13Empery Asset Management, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase750,000 @ $2.98$2.2M+20.4% of holding+7.1%not yet — horizon still open4,430,345Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12Empery Asset Management, LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase650,000 @ $2.82$1.8M+21.4% of holding+12.8%not yet — horizon still open3,680,345Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase559,183 @ $4.68$2.6M+14.2% of holding−5.9%−50.8%4,500,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase131,962 @ $4.67$616K+3.5% of holding−5.2%−49.3%3,940,817Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-30ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase114,447 @ $4.82$552K+3.1% of holding−18.3%−51.4%3,808,855Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-29ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase190,971 @ $4.91$937K+5.5% of holding−13.7%−49.8%3,694,408Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-28ATG Capital Opportunities Fund LPtenPercentOwnerPurchase123,208 @ $5.09$627K+3.6% of holding−24.4%−46.7%3,503,437Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

18 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-15Brown TicetenPercentOwnerExercise100,0002,173,494Form 4
2026-05-15Brown TicetenPercentOwnerExercise1,0000Form 4
2026-02-19Kim Kyoung JohndirectorOther acquisition20Form 4
2026-02-19Kim Kyoung JohndirectorOther acquisition10Form 4
2026-02-18Endo GregofficerOther acquisition30Form 4
2026-02-18Foster Jonathan P.directorOther acquisition20Form 4
2026-02-18Foster Jonathan P.directorOther acquisition10Form 4
2026-02-18Endo GregofficerOther acquisition20Form 4
2025-12-15Lane Ryan M.directorAward / grant98,4542,930,345Form 4
2025-12-12Lane Ryan M.directorAward / grant92,3412,831,891Form 4
2025-12-11Lane Ryan M.directorAward / grant62,9562,739,550Form 4
2025-12-08Lane Ryan M.directorAward / grant50,0002,676,594Form 4
2025-12-05Lane Ryan M.directorAward / grant50,0002,626,594Form 4
2025-12-04Lane Ryan M.directorAward / grant50,0002,576,594Form 4
2025-07-17Chauhan Rohan KumardirectorAward / grant298,802298,802Form 4
2025-07-17Homer MatthewdirectorAward / grant298,802298,802Form 4
2025-07-17Chauhan Rohan KumardirectorAward / grant298,802298,802Form 4
2025-07-17Homer MatthewdirectorAward / grant298,802298,802Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.