EMNEastman Chemical Companyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.07 · now $65.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EMN has typically landed between $57.11 and $73.08 — a range of −12.2% to +12.3% from the issuance price $65.07.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EMN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$57.11worst · -12.2%$73.08best · +12.3%
  • now $65.07 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.27 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $61.68–$68.85
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $57.11–$73.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.0%−47.0%+0.0%
2020-02-18−46.0%−46.0%+2.0%
2020-02-13−45.8%−45.8%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+70.7%+0.0%+70.7%
2009-03-06+66.7%+0.0%+68.2%
2009-03-09+56.5%+0.0%+63.1%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
58%
+5.2%
n=19
May
68%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
32%
−1.6%
n=19
Jul
53%
+2.6%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.7%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.0%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$79$542026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $234K — Holt Adrian James2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $132K — Holt Adrian James2025-08-27: 11 insider purchases, $1.9M — Costa Mark J, McLain William Thomas Jr., LICH BRAD A, BUTLER ERIC L …2025-08: 11 open-market purchases, $1.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $132K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $234K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Holt Adrian James — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Holt Adrian James — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Costa Mark J — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McLain William Thomas Jr. — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LICH BRAD A — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BUTLER ERIC L — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McAlindon Julie A. — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer SMITH BRIAN TRAVIS — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BEGEMANN BRETT D — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mink Kim Ann — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Audia Damon J — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Holder Julie Fasone — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector OBRIEN JAMES J /KY — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Holt Adrian JamesofficerSale3,283 @ $71.31$234K−100.0% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-05Holt Adrian JamesofficerSale1,709 @ $77.05$132K−100.0% of holding−10.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-27Costa Mark JdirectorPurchase7,400 @ $67.89$502K+1.7% of holding−10.4%+5.8%453,986Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27McLain William Thomas Jr.officerPurchase3,670 @ $68.73$252K+7.4% of holding−10.4%+5.8%53,524Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27LICH BRAD AdirectorPurchase3,280 @ $68.49$225K+4.1% of holding−10.4%+5.8%83,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27BUTLER ERIC LdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $68.65$206K+47.4% of holding−10.4%+5.8%9,330Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27McAlindon Julie A.officerPurchase2,000 @ $68.43$137K+18.6% of holding−10.4%+5.8%12,731Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27SMITH BRIAN TRAVISofficerPurchase1,750 @ $68.34$120K+11.7% of holding−10.4%+5.8%16,732Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-27BEGEMANN BRETT DdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $68.28$102K+18.7% of holding−10.4%+5.8%9,520Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27Mink Kim AnndirectorPurchase1,450 @ $69.38$101K+104.3% of holding−10.4%+5.8%2,840Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27Audia Damon JdirectorPurchase1,465 @ $68.58$100K+1109.8% of holding−10.4%+5.8%1,597Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27Holder Julie FasonedirectorPurchase1,453 @ $68.80$100K+9.0% of holding−10.4%+5.8%17,546Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27OBRIEN JAMES J /KYdirectorPurchase1,450 @ $68.81$100K+27.0% of holding−10.4%+5.8%6,828Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Caveness Michelle HofficerSale1,147 @ $98.51$113K−49.6% of holding−2.3%−35.4%1,167Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Costa Mark JdirectorSale4,834 @ $100.08$484K−1.1% of holding−4.3%−37.9%446,586Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-21McLain William Thomas Jr.officerSale1,963 @ $101.00$198K−3.8% of holding−3.9%−36.5%49,854Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-20Holt Adrian JamesofficerSale2,037 @ $101.18$206K−100.0% of holding−3.7%−37.8%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02OBRIEN JAMES J /KYdirectorGift7,8607,860Form 4
2026-09-02OBRIEN JAMES J /KYdirectorGift2,4820Form 4
2026-09-02OBRIEN JAMES J /KYdirectorGift5,3781,628Form 4
2026-06-01Holt Adrian JamesofficerWithheld for tax1,0583,283Form 4
2026-06-01Holt Adrian JamesofficerAward / grant4,3414,341Form 4
2026-06-01Holt Adrian JamesofficerOption exercise4,3410Form 4
2026-06-01Holt Adrian JamesofficerAward / grant4,3414,341Form 4
2026-06-01Holt Adrian JamesofficerOption exercise4,3410Form 4
2026-05-07BEGEMANN BRETT DdirectorAward / grant1,62860,034Form 4
2026-05-07Audia Damon JdirectorAward / grant1,6284,274Form 4
2026-05-07Mink Kim AnndirectorAward / grant1,62817,280Form 4
2026-05-07Alfonso Humberto PdirectorAward / grant1,62857,588Form 4
2026-05-07Holder Julie FasonedirectorAward / grant1,62819,174Form 4
2026-05-07OBRIEN JAMES J /KYdirectorAward / grant1,6288,456Form 4
2026-05-07Haynesworth Linnie MdirectorAward / grant1,6283,135Form 4
2026-05-07BUTLER ERIC LdirectorAward / grant1,62810,958Form 4
2026-05-07HORNBAKER RENEE JdirectorAward / grant1,62825,565Form 4
2026-05-07SLAGER DONALD WdirectorAward / grant1,6283,303Form 4
2026-05-05Holt Adrian JamesofficerDisposition2,2710Form 4
2026-04-08BEGEMANN BRETT DdirectorAward / grant1,15956,970Form 4
2026-04-08Alfonso Humberto PdirectorAward / grant98854,564Form 4
2026-04-08Audia Damon JdirectorAward / grant8522,212Form 4
2026-04-08Haynesworth Linnie MdirectorAward / grant4085,640Form 4
2026-04-08BEGEMANN BRETT DdirectorAward / grant40858,408Form 4
2026-04-08BUTLER ERIC LdirectorAward / grant4083,228Form 4
2026-04-08Audia Damon JdirectorAward / grant4082,646Form 4
2026-04-08Mink Kim AnndirectorAward / grant40815,653Form 4
2026-04-08HORNBAKER RENEE JdirectorAward / grant40851,107Form 4
2026-04-08Holder Julie FasonedirectorAward / grant40815,051Form 4
2026-04-08SLAGER DONALD WdirectorAward / grant4081,699Form 4
2026-04-08Alfonso Humberto PdirectorAward / grant40855,961Form 4
2026-04-08OBRIEN JAMES J /KYdirectorAward / grant40818,137Form 4
2026-02-24Costa Mark JdirectorAward / grant31,99331,993Form 4
2026-02-24LICH BRAD AdirectorAward / grant63,12363,123Form 4
2026-02-24LICH BRAD AdirectorAward / grant8,6848,684Form 4
2026-02-24Stewart Michelle ReneeofficerAward / grant11,07511,075Form 4
2026-02-24Stewart Michelle ReneeofficerAward / grant1,5241,524Form 4
2026-02-24Gbadegesin Bosede IkeoluofficerAward / grant33,22333,223Form 4
2026-02-24Gbadegesin Bosede IkeoluofficerAward / grant4,5714,571Form 4
2026-02-24Caveness Michelle HofficerAward / grant33,22333,223Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-09-122025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-06-092025-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-02-072023-02-02$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousesale2022-09-142022-08-03$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousepurchase2022-08-102022-07-20$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.