ELVElevance Health Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Plansas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $412.56 · now $412.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ELV has typically landed between $366.53 and $462.33 — a range of −11.2% to +12.1% from the issuance price $412.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($412.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ELV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $412.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$366.53worst · -11.2%$462.33best · +12.1%
  • now $412.56 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $414.87 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $395.77–$433.96
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $366.53–$462.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-02-27−41.4%−41.4%+0.0%
2020-02-21−40.5%−40.5%+0.6%
2008-02-19−40.1%−40.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+50.5%+0.0%+55.6%
2008-11-20+37.5%+0.0%+43.6%
2020-04-03+35.3%+0.0%+38.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$81.9B
market cap
$22.50
EPS (TTM)
16.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-21
next earnings
Revenue$199.1B
'20'25
Net income$5.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.76
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $412.56$335.03$1,147
  • DCF (intrinsic)$1,091
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$617.41
  • Analyst target · range $391.00–$498.00$452.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$412.56

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.7%
n=18
Feb
53%
−1.1%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.0%
n=19
Apr
74%
+4.7%
n=19
May
68%
+2.2%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
53%
−1.3%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.9%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.8%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$427$2782026-07-17: 3 insider purchases, $1.4M — BOUDREAUX GAIL, PERU RAMIRO G …2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $149K — Penczek Ronald W2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $61K — Dixon Robert L JR2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $617K — Penczek Ronald W2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $7K — SCHULMAN AMY W2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $911K — Kendrick Charles Morgan JR2026-03-05: 1 insider purchase, $870K — COLLIS STEVEN H2025-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $375K — DeVore Susan D.2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $375K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $870K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $918K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $617K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $209K2026-07: 3 open-market purchases, $1.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector BOUDREAUX GAIL — Purchase on 2026-07-17, filed same daydirector PERU RAMIRO G — Purchase on 2026-07-17, filed same daydirector BOUDREAUX GAIL — Purchase on 2026-07-17, filed same dayofficer Penczek Ronald W — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Dixon Robert L JR — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Penczek Ronald W — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SCHULMAN AMY W — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 11 days after the tradeofficer Kendrick Charles Morgan JR — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector COLLIS STEVEN H — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DeVore Susan D. — Purchase on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-17BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorPurchase2,045 @ $368.25$753K+1.2% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open171,976Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-17PERU RAMIRO GdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $366.05$366K+10.1% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open10,908Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-17BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorPurchase680 @ $366.41$249K+0.4% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open169,931Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12Penczek Ronald WofficerSale369 @ $403.16$149K−9.0% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open3,740Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-11Dixon Robert L JRdirectorSale151 @ $401.77$61K−1.4% of holding+4.7%not yet — horizon still open10,734Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Penczek Ronald WofficerSale1,531 @ $403.13$617K−27.1% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open4,109Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12SCHULMAN AMY WdirectorSale26 @ $287.50$7K−10.7% of holding+6.5%+30.7%218Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade
2026-03-06Kendrick Charles Morgan JRofficerSale3,196 @ $284.92$911K−21.3% of holding+10.0%+26.4%11,791Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-05COLLIS STEVEN HdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $289.84$870K+469.5% of holding+9.3%+32.2%3,639Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19DeVore Susan D.directorPurchase1,200 @ $312.15$375K+52.1% of holding−1.7%+5.2%3,502Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-18BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorPurchase5,116 @ $287.12$1.5M+3.5% of holding+9.1%+25.9%149,970Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-18BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorPurchase2,334 @ $286.07$668K+1.6% of holding+9.1%+25.9%144,854Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-18BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorPurchase1,050 @ $287.96$302K+0.7% of holding+9.1%+25.9%151,020Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-24Kaye MarkdirectorSale4,588 @ $424.82$1.9M−19.5% of holding−19.1%−42.0%18,977Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Penczek Ronald WofficerSale443 @ $415.13$184K−19.3% of holding+16.4%−39.4%1,847Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05Kendrick Charles Morgan JRofficerSale3,504 @ $396.30$1.4M−25.7% of holding+22.0%−33.8%10,116Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Wessling Erin MofficerWithheld for tax2557,230Form 4
2026-09-02Craig Ryan RofficerWithheld for tax1446,530Form 4
2026-09-02Wessling Erin MofficerWithheld for tax947,485Form 4
2026-05-19Penczek Ronald WofficerOption exercise8775,640Form 4
2026-05-19Penczek Ronald WofficerOption exercise6544,763Form 4
2026-05-19Penczek Ronald WofficerOption exercise8770Form 4
2026-05-19Penczek Ronald WofficerOption exercise6540Form 4
2026-05-13Dixon Robert L JRdirectorAward / grant56310,885Form 4
2026-05-13Schneider Ryan M.directorAward / grant5637,163Form 4
2026-05-13DeVore Susan D.directorAward / grant5634,065Form 4
2026-05-13Neri Antonio FdirectorAward / grant5635,488Form 4
2026-05-13Jallal BahijadirectorAward / grant5635,351Form 4
2026-05-13SCHULMAN AMY WdirectorAward / grant563781Form 4
2026-05-13STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorAward / grant5632,209Form 4
2026-05-13PERU RAMIRO GdirectorAward / grant5639,908Form 4
2026-05-13HAY LEWIS IIIdirectorAward / grant56312,070Form 4
2026-05-13COLLIS STEVEN HdirectorAward / grant5634,202Form 4
2026-03-03BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorWithheld for tax1,736169,251Form 4
2026-03-03Norwood Felicia FdirectorWithheld for tax49638,838Form 4
2026-03-03Kendrick Charles Morgan JRofficerWithheld for tax46714,987Form 4
2026-03-03Haytaian Peter DofficerWithheld for tax44627,222Form 4
2026-03-03Wessling Erin MofficerWithheld for tax4177,579Form 4
2026-03-03Kaye MarkdirectorWithheld for tax35332,037Form 4
2026-03-03Craig Ryan RofficerWithheld for tax3096,674Form 4
2026-03-03LAVU RATNAKARofficerWithheld for tax22216,149Form 4
2026-03-03Penczek Ronald WofficerWithheld for tax374,099Form 4
2026-03-02BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorWithheld for tax6,713144,307Form 4
2026-03-02Norwood Felicia FdirectorWithheld for tax1,42130,518Form 4
2026-03-02Kendrick Charles Morgan JRofficerWithheld for tax1,2118,905Form 4
2026-03-02Haytaian Peter DofficerWithheld for tax1,20124,803Form 4
2026-03-02LAVU RATNAKARofficerWithheld for tax3154,468Form 4
2026-03-02Kaye MarkdirectorWithheld for tax27115,811Form 4
2026-03-02Penczek Ronald WofficerWithheld for tax1311,743Form 4
2026-03-02Craig Ryan RofficerWithheld for tax254,007Form 4
2026-03-02LAVU RATNAKARofficerAward / grant5,1019,569Form 4
2026-03-02BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorAward / grant16,153160,460Form 4
2026-03-02BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorAward / grant10,527170,987Form 4
2026-03-02BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorAward / grant63,81863,818Form 4
2026-03-02Wessling Erin MofficerAward / grant2,9767,996Form 4
2026-03-02Wessling Erin MofficerAward / grant11,75411,754Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2026-01-162025-12-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHouseexchange2025-09-252024-03-25$100–250K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-09-122025-08-13$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.