ELSEquity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-17
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-17 at $61.10 · now $61.10 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, ELS has typically landed between $56.01 and $66.07 — a range of −8.3% to +8.1% from the issuance price $61.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,004 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($61.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ELS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $61.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$56.01worst · -8.3%$66.07best · +8.1%
  • now $61.1 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $61.04 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $59.1–$62.98
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $56.01–$66.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,004 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−40.8%−41.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−40.2%−40.2%+2.1%
2020-02-19−38.2%−39.9%+2.6%
3 best
2008-11-20+57.3%+0.0%+67.0%
2009-03-05+41.8%+0.0%+42.3%
2008-11-19+41.4%−13.2%+45.0%

5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Apr
80%
+1.5%
n=20
May
55%
+0.0%
n=20
Jun
65%
+0.8%
n=20
Jul
80%
+3.8%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Sep
40%
−1.0%
n=20
Oct
65%
+2.3%
n=20
Nov
55%
−0.8%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$68$572026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $202K — CONTIS DAVID J2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $202K↑ buys↓ salesdirector CONTIS DAVID J — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-18CONTIS DAVID JdirectorSale3,000 @ $67.22$202K−16.8% of holding−8.2%−22.2%14,890Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07Seavey PaulofficerSale10,000 @ $64.72$647K−11.3% of holding−10.0%−25.5%78,162Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

173 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Freedman ConstancedirectorAward / grant6216,525Form 4
2026-07-31Peppet Scott RdirectorGift3,61510,973Form 4
2026-07-01Freedman ConstancedirectorAward / grant37716,463Form 4
2026-05-01Freedman ConstancedirectorAward / grant6016,086Form 4
2026-05-01CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift1114,716Form 4
2026-05-01CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift8023,914Form 4
2026-05-01CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift1118,157Form 4
2026-05-01CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift8028,959Form 4
2026-04-29CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift1964,827Form 4
2026-04-29CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift7585,127Form 4
2026-04-29CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift1045,023Form 4
2026-04-29CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift7587,746Form 4
2026-04-29CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift1047,850Form 4
2026-04-29CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift1968,046Form 4
2026-04-28Berkenfield AndrewdirectorAward / grant2,31610,693Form 4
2026-04-28CALIAN PHILIPdirectorAward / grant2,316221,255Form 4
2026-04-28Peppet Scott RdirectorAward / grant2,31614,268Form 4
2026-04-28Papandreou RadhikadirectorAward / grant2,3167,236Form 4
2026-04-28Freedman ConstancedirectorAward / grant2,31615,786Form 4
2026-04-28Burks DerrickdirectorAward / grant2,31612,217Form 4
2026-04-28CONTIS DAVID JdirectorAward / grant2,3165,366Form 4
2026-04-28CALIAN PHILIPdirectorAward / grant399221,654Form 4
2026-04-28Peppet Scott RdirectorAward / grant32014,588Form 4
2026-04-28CALIAN PHILIPdirectorAward / grant320221,974Form 4
2026-04-28CONTIS DAVID JdirectorAward / grant3195,685Form 4
2026-04-28Burks DerrickdirectorAward / grant31912,536Form 4
2026-04-28Freedman ConstancedirectorAward / grant24016,026Form 4
2026-04-28CONTIS DAVID JdirectorAward / grant2005,885Form 4
2026-04-28Berkenfield AndrewdirectorAward / grant12010,813Form 4
2026-04-28Papandreou RadhikadirectorAward / grant1207,356Form 4
2026-04-28HENEGHAN THOMASdirectorAward / grant1,59548,240Form 4
2026-04-28HENEGHAN THOMASdirectorAward / grant14,37546,645Form 4
2026-04-24CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift986,988Form 4
2026-04-24CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift983,050Form 4
2026-04-24HENEGHAN THOMASdirectorGift196100,586Form 4
2026-04-24HENEGHAN THOMASdirectorGift196300,030Form 4
2026-04-01Freedman ConstancedirectorAward / grant36613,470Form 4
2026-03-18CONTIS DAVID JdirectorGift8,0006,890Form 4
2026-02-03NADER MARGUERITE MdirectorAward / grant29,970284,614Form 4
2026-02-03Seavey PaulofficerAward / grant23,68094,601Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.