ELME · TickerCove

ELMEElme CommunitiesReal Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.63 · now $1.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ELME has typically landed between $1.45 and $1.79 — a range of −11.3% to +9.9% from the issuance price $1.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.63 · 15% of range

$1.35 low$3.18 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.0%

typical move · IQR 9.4%

−11.3%worst (p90)+9.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ELME has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.63 (+0.0%)
typical $1.63 (+0.0%)
middle 50% $1.55–$1.71
90% range $1.45–$1.79

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-01-28	−35.2%	−35.2%	+0.0%
2009-01-29	−34.9%	−34.9%	+5.3%
2009-02-03	−34.7%	−34.7%	+6.6%
3 best
2008-11-20	+43.5%	+0.0%	+45.7%
2020-10-28	+39.1%	+0.0%	+42.3%
2009-03-30	+37.4%	+0.0%	+41.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.6%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.9%

n=20

Mar

60%

+2.2%

n=20

Apr

60%

+1.8%

n=20

May

50%

−1.1%

n=20

Jun

50%

−1.2%

n=20

Jul

70%

+2.9%

n=20

Aug

55%

+0.3%

n=20

Sep

50%

−0.8%

n=20

Oct

50%

−0.4%

n=20

Nov

55%

+0.2%

n=20

Dec

50%

−0.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

119 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2025-12-15	Goitia Ellen M.	director	Award / grant	2,883	47,851	Form 4
2025-12-15	Sturzenegger Ron D.	director	Award / grant	2,883	5,209	Form 4
2025-12-15	Carras Susan	director	Award / grant	2,883	14,122	Form 4
2025-12-15	Winns Anthony L.	director	Award / grant	2,883	73,889	Form 4
2025-12-15	Butcher Benjamin S	director	Award / grant	2,883	99,013	Form 4
2025-12-15	BANNER JENNIFER S	director	Award / grant	2,883	35,167	Form 4
2025-12-15	NOLAN THOMAS H JR	director	Award / grant	2,883	60,359	Form 4
2025-11-19	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	71,970	844,394	Form 4
2025-11-19	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	71,970	916,364	Form 4
2025-11-19	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	58,427	785,967	Form 4
2025-11-19	Butcher Tiffany Michelle	officer	Withheld for tax	34,105	115,435	Form 4
2025-11-19	Butcher Tiffany Michelle	officer	Withheld for tax	32,018	149,540	Form 4
2025-11-19	Butcher Tiffany Michelle	officer	Withheld for tax	18,557	96,878	Form 4
2025-11-19	Freishtat Steven	officer	Withheld for tax	18,039	86,454	Form 4
2025-11-19	Freishtat Steven	officer	Withheld for tax	17,003	104,493	Form 4
2025-11-19	Hammond Wade Drew	officer	Withheld for tax	12,595	76,704	Form 4
2025-11-19	Hammond Wade Drew	officer	Withheld for tax	12,183	97,165	Form 4
2025-11-19	Freishtat Steven	officer	Withheld for tax	11,896	74,558	Form 4
2025-11-19	Hammond Wade Drew	officer	Withheld for tax	7,866	89,299	Form 4
2025-11-19	Butcher Tiffany Michelle	officer	Award / grant	52,197	145,574	Form 4
2025-11-19	Freishtat Steven	officer	Award / grant	23,292	121,496	Form 4
2025-11-19	Freishtat Steven	officer	Award / grant	27,784	98,204	Form 4
2025-11-19	Freishtat Steven	officer	Award / grant	27,784	70,420	Form 4
2025-11-19	Butcher Tiffany Michelle	officer	Award / grant	35,984	181,558	Form 4
2025-11-19	Butcher Tiffany Michelle	officer	Award / grant	52,197	93,377	Form 4
2025-11-19	Hammond Wade Drew	officer	Award / grant	15,414	109,348	Form 4
2025-11-19	Hammond Wade Drew	officer	Award / grant	19,912	93,934	Form 4
2025-11-19	Hammond Wade Drew	officer	Award / grant	19,912	74,022	Form 4
2025-11-19	McDermott Paul T.	director	Award / grant	120,966	988,334	Form 4
2025-11-19	McDermott Paul T.	director	Award / grant	149,006	867,368	Form 4
2025-11-19	McDermott Paul T.	director	Award / grant	149,006	718,362	Form 4
2025-11-12	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	48,300	569,356	Form 4
2025-11-12	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	9,086	625,165	Form 4
2025-11-12	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	9,085	660,675	Form 4
2025-11-12	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	8,808	643,059	Form 4
2025-11-12	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	8,808	651,867	Form 4
2025-11-12	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	8,808	634,251	Form 4
2025-11-12	McDermott Paul T.	director	Withheld for tax	7,509	617,656	Form 4
2025-11-12	Butcher Tiffany Michelle	officer	Withheld for tax	3,449	41,180	Form 4
2025-11-12	Butcher Tiffany Michelle	officer	Withheld for tax	3,265	49,460	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i