Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.15 · now $26.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ELMD has typically landed between $21.95 and $32.59 — a range of −16.1% to +24.6% from the issuance price $26.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,023 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-08-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ELMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $26.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.37 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.51–$28.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.95–$32.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,023 windows spanning 2010-08-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2014-01-02 | −43.6% | −43.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-08-14 | −42.8% | −43.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-08-13 | −41.1% | −41.1% | +3.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-02-03 | +195.9% | −3.5% | +195.9% |
| 2016-01-29 | +193.8% | +0.0% | +200.6% |
| 2016-01-27 | +193.4% | −2.4% | +193.4% |
4,023 overlapping windows · 2010-08-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+3.6%
n=16
Feb
63%
+18.2%
n=16
Mar
31%
−4.8%
n=16
Apr
50%
+1.9%
n=16
May
31%
−3.6%
n=16
Jun
56%
+3.8%
n=16
Jul
44%
+0.2%
n=16
Aug
50%
−0.3%
n=16
Sep
65%
+3.7%
n=17
Oct
56%
−0.4%
n=16
Nov
63%
+8.8%
n=16
Dec
44%
−1.6%
n=16
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Cunniff James L. | director | Sale | 7,003 @ $36.25 | $254K | −4.4% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Cunniff James L. | director | Sale | 1,671 @ $36.80 | $61K | −1.1% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,777 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Cunniff James L. | director | Sale | 1,026 @ $37.77 | $39K | −0.7% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,751 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Sale | 11,620 @ $36.34 | $422K | −37.0% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,819 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Sale | 181 @ $37.11 | $7K | −0.9% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,638 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 19,032 @ $35.24 | $671K | −28.2% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,440 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 9,256 @ $36.26 | $336K | −19.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,184 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 8,150 @ $34.36 | $280K | −10.8% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,472 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 3,562 @ $37.33 | $133K | −9.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,622 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 3,153 @ $24.42 | $77K | −100.0% of holding | −3.4% | −7.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 39,378 @ $23.68 | $932K | −59.9% of holding | +3.7% | −4.3% | 26,336 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 16,203 @ $25.16 | $408K | −61.5% of holding | +3.7% | −4.3% | 10,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 6,576 @ $25.94 | $171K | −64.9% of holding | +3.7% | −4.3% | 3,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 404 @ $26.62 | $11K | −11.4% of holding | +3.7% | −4.3% | 3,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 50,751 @ $27.30 | $1.4M | −43.6% of holding | −7.3% | −33.3% | 65,714 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-21 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 11,992 @ $28.16 | $338K | −4.2% of holding | −8.6% | −35.7% | 271,001 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 11,990 @ $28.16 | $338K | −9.3% of holding | −8.6% | −35.7% | 117,200 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 735 @ $28.99 | $21K | −0.6% of holding | −8.6% | −35.7% | 116,465 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 734 @ $28.99 | $21K | −0.3% of holding | −8.6% | −35.7% | 270,267 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 15,689 @ $28.71 | $450K | −10.7% of holding | −6.3% | −38.3% | 131,138 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 15,689 @ $28.71 | $450K | −5.2% of holding | −6.3% | −38.3% | 284,940 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 1,948 @ $29.81 | $58K | −1.5% of holding | −6.3% | −38.3% | 129,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 1,947 @ $29.81 | $58K | −0.7% of holding | −6.3% | −38.3% | 282,993 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 38,954 @ $29.28 | $1.1M | −54.4% of holding | −9.7% | −40.4% | 32,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $29.15 | $146K | −100.0% of holding | −9.7% | −40.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 23,989 @ $32.07 | $769K | −82.8% of holding | −14.7% | −44.4% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 7,558 @ $32.13 | $243K | −9.4% of holding | −14.7% | −44.4% | 72,658 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Sale | 1,082 @ $33.08 | $36K | −1.5% of holding | −14.7% | −44.4% | 71,576 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 17,597 @ $28.09 | $494K | −10.6% of holding | +10.9% | −28.9% | 148,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 17,159 @ $28.09 | $482K | −5.4% of holding | +10.9% | −28.9% | 301,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 1,169 @ $28.81 | $34K | −0.8% of holding | +10.9% | −28.9% | 146,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 1,157 @ $28.89 | $33K | −0.4% of holding | +10.9% | −28.9% | 300,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 162 @ $29.40 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | +10.9% | −28.9% | 146,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Summers Andrew | director | Sale | 160 @ $29.41 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | +10.9% | −28.9% | 300,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
32 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Cunniff James L. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,671 | 145,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,102 | 22,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Award / grant | 9,600 | 9,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Award / grant | 4,900 | 23,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 674 | 18,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Cunniff James L. | director | Option exercise | 9,700 | 157,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Cunniff James L. | director | Option exercise | 9,700 | 19,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,267 | 31,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Option exercise | 4,334 | 26,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Option exercise | 4,334 | 2,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,267 | 2,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 75,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Fluet Gregory | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 21,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Galatowitsch Joseph L. | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Erickson Stan K. | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 38,817 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Tune Kathleen A | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Summers Andrew | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Walsh Andrea M. | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 18,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 35,622 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Cunniff James L. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,291 | 130,751 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 562 | 16,538 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Cunniff James L. | director | Award / grant | 31,100 | 31,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Award / grant | 5,300 | 21,838 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Nagel Bradley M. | officer | Award / grant | 9,800 | 9,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Cunniff James L. | director | Award / grant | 17,000 | 147,751 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Withheld for tax | 15,178 | 80,216 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 95,394 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Cunniff James L. | director | Withheld for tax | 34,432 | 132,042 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Cunniff James L. | director | Option exercise | 87,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Cunniff James L. | director | Option exercise | 87,500 | 166,474 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.