Issued 2026-09-16 at $93.41 · now $93.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ELF has typically landed between $72.73 and $120.65 — a range of −22.1% to +29.2% from the issuance price $93.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,488 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-09-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($93.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ELF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $93.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $93.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $96.73 (+3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $86.59–$106.86
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.73–$120.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,488 windows spanning 2016-09-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −57.0% | −57.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −56.1% | −58.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-01 | +82.8% | +0.0% | +82.8% |
| 2025-04-30 | +81.8% | +0.0% | +81.8% |
| 2025-04-29 | +79.9% | −0.5% | +79.9% |
2,488 overlapping windows · 2016-09-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
30%
−4.6%
n=10
Feb
60%
+4.4%
n=10
Mar
50%
−3.4%
n=10
Apr
50%
+4.8%
n=10
May
60%
+10.3%
n=10
Jun
80%
+11.9%
n=10
Jul
50%
+0.4%
n=10
Aug
60%
+5.2%
n=10
Sep
30%
−6.2%
n=10
Oct
30%
−2.5%
n=10
Nov
70%
+8.6%
n=10
Dec
50%
+0.4%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | FIELDS MANDY J | director | Sale | 7,965 @ $103.83 | $827K | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,996 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | FIELDS MANDY J | director | Sale | 4,650 @ $104.73 | $487K | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | FIELDS MANDY J | director | Sale | 2,850 @ $105.65 | $301K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | FIELDS MANDY J | director | Sale | 600 @ $106.61 | $64K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 90,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Franks Joshua Allen | officer | Sale | 200 @ $110.00 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 135,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Franks Joshua Allen | officer | Sale | 5,512 @ $110.00 | $606K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 138,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Franks Joshua Allen | officer | Sale | 5,718 @ $100.00 | $572K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 144,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Levitan Lauren Cooks | director | Sale | 1,034 @ $93.15 | $96K | −9.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MARCHISOTTO KORY | director | Sale | 12,173 @ $88.02 | $1.1M | −6.7% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 25,964 @ $78.96 | $2.1M | −18.7% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Hartnett Jennifer Catherine | officer | Sale | 25,357 @ $80.00 | $2.0M | −46.9% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,699 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 16,100 @ $78.22 | $1.3M | −10.4% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,760 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 3,300 @ $73.59 | $243K | −2.1% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $79.74 | $183K | −2.0% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $76.76 | $84K | −0.7% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 154,860 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 800 @ $74.26 | $59K | −0.5% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 600 @ $75.61 | $45K | −0.4% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | MARCHISOTTO KORY | director | Sale | 4,352 @ $51.53 | $224K | −2.3% of holding | +35.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Hartnett Jennifer Catherine | officer | Sale | 4,352 @ $51.53 | $224K | −7.5% of holding | +35.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | FIELDS MANDY J | director | Sale | 4,327 @ $51.53 | $223K | −3.9% of holding | +35.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 4,162 @ $51.53 | $214K | −2.8% of holding | +35.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,581 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Franks Joshua Allen | officer | Sale | 3,505 @ $51.53 | $181K | −2.3% of holding | +35.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,027 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Hartnett Jennifer Catherine | officer | Sale | 10,318 @ $51.94 | $536K | −15.0% of holding | +47.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,408 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | MARCHISOTTO KORY | director | Sale | 8,512 @ $51.94 | $442K | −4.4% of holding | +47.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,220 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 8,512 @ $51.94 | $442K | −5.4% of holding | +47.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,743 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | FIELDS MANDY J | director | Sale | 8,464 @ $51.94 | $440K | −7.1% of holding | +47.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 111,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Franks Joshua Allen | officer | Sale | 6,854 @ $51.94 | $356K | −4.3% of holding | +47.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Levitan Lauren Cooks | director | Sale | 7,714 @ $56.31 | $434K | −40.0% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,550 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 41,520 @ $63.66 | $2.6M | −26.9% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 23,797 @ $63.66 | $1.5M | −17.2% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | MARCHISOTTO KORY | director | Sale | 23,796 @ $63.66 | $1.5M | −13.5% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 152,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | FIELDS MANDY J | director | Sale | 23,656 @ $63.66 | $1.5M | −23.4% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Franks Joshua Allen | officer | Sale | 23,535 @ $63.66 | $1.5M | −16.6% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Hartnett Jennifer Catherine | officer | Sale | 20,829 @ $63.66 | $1.3M | −23.3% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 31,630 @ $62.44 | $2.0M | −20.9% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $62.93 | $1.3M | −17.8% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | FARRELL MATTHEW | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $92.96 | $465K | +85.9% of holding | −18.8% | −3.2% | 10,820 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 1,522 @ $79.83 | $122K | −1.9% of holding | −4.4% | −44.6% | 80,296 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 906 @ $79.83 | $72K | −0.9% of holding | −4.4% | −44.6% | 96,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Levitan Lauren Cooks | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $71.71 | $186K | −17.0% of holding | +8.4% | −32.9% | 12,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Levitan Lauren Cooks | director | Sale | 1,160 @ $71.63 | $83K | −9.1% of holding | +8.4% | −32.9% | 11,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 64,030 @ $132.41 | $8.5M | −40.5% of holding | −10.6% | −53.4% | 94,248 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 33,038 @ $131.86 | $4.4M | −17.3% of holding | −10.6% | −53.4% | 158,278 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 12,430 @ $133.44 | $1.7M | −13.2% of holding | −10.6% | −53.4% | 81,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Sale | 6,817 @ $130.36 | $889K | −3.4% of holding | −10.6% | −53.4% | 191,316 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 15,000 @ $150.23 | $2.3M | −13.3% of holding | −7.5% | −50.4% | 97,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | MARCHISOTTO KORY | director | Sale | 10,812 @ $150.00 | $1.6M | −7.5% of holding | −7.5% | −50.4% | 133,976 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | FIELDS MANDY J | director | Sale | 5,298 @ $150.21 | $796K | −8.3% of holding | −7.5% | −50.4% | 58,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Franks Joshua Allen | officer | Sale | 7,913 @ $145.00 | $1.1M | −7.4% of holding | −7.5% | −51.7% | 99,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 15,000 @ $140.28 | $2.1M | −11.8% of holding | −3.0% | −47.9% | 112,406 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-12 | MARCHISOTTO KORY | director | Sale | 13,515 @ $140.10 | $1.9M | −8.5% of holding | −3.0% | −47.9% | 144,788 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-11 | Hartnett Jennifer Catherine | officer | Sale | 604 @ $137.50 | $83K | −1.1% of holding | −5.6% | −48.1% | 52,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Hartnett Jennifer Catherine | officer | Sale | 500 @ $135.51 | $68K | −0.9% of holding | −5.6% | −48.1% | 53,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Hartnett Jennifer Catherine | officer | Sale | 200 @ $134.77 | $27K | −0.4% of holding | −5.6% | −48.1% | 53,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 30,218 @ $134.58 | $4.1M | −19.7% of holding | +4.6% | −48.7% | 123,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 8,927 @ $133.48 | $1.2M | −5.5% of holding | +4.6% | −48.7% | 153,584 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 6,753 @ $135.36 | $914K | −5.5% of holding | +4.6% | −48.7% | 116,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 5,476 @ $132.54 | $726K | −3.3% of holding | +4.6% | −48.7% | 162,511 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 2,100 @ $139.00 | $292K | −1.8% of holding | +4.6% | −48.7% | 112,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Milsten Scott | other | Sale | 1,101 @ $136.52 | $150K | −0.9% of holding | +4.6% | −48.7% | 115,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
123 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Franks Joshua Allen | officer | Gift | 3,300 | 135,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Gift | 20,836 | 110,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Gift | 20,836 | 20,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,836 | 520,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,836 | 520,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 560,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,836 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 540,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 560,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,836 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,836 | 520,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 540,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 560,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 540,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,836 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 560,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 540,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,836 | 520,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Other acquisition | 20,836 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Watson Maureen C. | director | Award / grant | 1,939 | 4,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Levitan Lauren Cooks | director | Award / grant | 1,421 | 11,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Bergh Charles V | director | Award / grant | 1,878 | 3,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Daniele Tiffany F. | director | Award / grant | 1,421 | 8,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | FARRELL MATTHEW | director | Award / grant | 1,421 | 12,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Ferreras Maria | director | Award / grant | 1,909 | 3,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Keith Lori | director | Award / grant | 1,985 | 24,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Mitchell Kenneth Jr | director | Award / grant | 1,980 | 19,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Tait Gayle | director | Award / grant | 1,421 | 6,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Option exercise | 50,164 | 160,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | AMIN TARANG | director | Option exercise | 50,164 | 91,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | AMIN TARANG | director | Gift | 30,758 | 499,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | AMIN TARANG | director | Gift | 18,097 | 110,496 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.