Issued 2026-09-17 at $2.65 · now $2.62 (2026-09-18, −1.1% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, ELDN has typically landed between $1.95 and $3.72 — a range of −26.5% to +40.4% from the issuance price $2.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,995 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-09-17 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($2.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ELDN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $2.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.62 (-1.1%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.62 (-1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.28–$2.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.95–$3.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-06-30 | −80.4% | −80.4% | +5.1% |
| 2016-06-24 | −80.1% | −80.1% | +6.4% |
| 2016-07-12 | −80.1% | −81.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-15 | +185.5% | +0.0% | +185.5% |
| 2018-12-31 | +168.8% | +0.0% | +168.8% |
| 2020-09-04 | +165.9% | +0.0% | +170.8% |
2,996 overlapping windows · 2014-09-17 – 2026-09-18 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-29 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Purchase | 2,213,816 @ $3.65 | $8.1M | +42.6% of holding | +15.7% | −5.8% | 7,415,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-29 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Purchase | 2,100,244 @ $3.65 | $7.7M | +50.8% of holding | +15.7% | −5.8% | 6,235,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-29 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Purchase | 440,489 @ $3.65 | $1.6M | +110.7% of holding | +15.7% | −5.8% | 838,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Gros David-Alexandre C | director | Withheld for tax | 194,791 | 168,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Perrin Steven | director | Withheld for tax | 72,138 | 81,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Perrin Steven | director | Award / grant | 152,353 | 153,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Gros David-Alexandre C | director | Award / grant | 354,454 | 363,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Kirk Allan | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Kirk Allan | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Hillson Jan | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Robinson James A. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Lee June | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Lee June | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | McBride John S. | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | McBride John S. | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Hillson Jan | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Robinson James A. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 3,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Katkin Keith | director | Option exercise | 8,575 | 8,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Katkin Keith | director | Option exercise | 8,575 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | McBride John S. | director | Award / grant | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Hillson Jan | director | Award / grant | 30,870 | 30,870 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Hillson Jan | director | Award / grant | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Kirk Allan | director | Award / grant | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Lee June | director | Award / grant | 30,870 | 30,870 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Lee June | director | Award / grant | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Perrin Steven | director | Award / grant | 243,000 | 243,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Perrin Steven | director | Award / grant | 27,000 | 27,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Little Paul Sean | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Robinson James A. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Smith Bryan E. | officer | Award / grant | 150,500 | 150,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Smith Bryan E. | officer | Award / grant | 64,500 | 64,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Katkin Keith | director | Award / grant | 77,175 | 77,175 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Kirk Allan | director | Award / grant | 30,870 | 30,870 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Little Paul Sean | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Katkin Keith | director | Award / grant | 8,575 | 8,575 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Gros David-Alexandre C | director | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Gros David-Alexandre C | director | Award / grant | 66,500 | 66,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | McBride John S. | director | Award / grant | 30,870 | 30,870 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-21 | Perrin Steven | director | Award / grant | 840,438 | 840,438 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-21 | Smith Bryan E. | officer | Award / grant | 474,350 | 474,350 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-21 | Gros David-Alexandre C | director | Award / grant | 1,015,743 | 1,015,743 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-21 | Little Paul Sean | officer | Award / grant | 525,032 | 525,032 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.